A powerful follow through to yesterdays action as the Dow closed above 13000 for the first time in 3 months.  The Dow gained 187 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive.  This should move the summation index back to the upside.  I was wrong once again thinking that the earlier this week break of the up trend line in the S&P 500 would lead to further weakness.  Of course I didn't know the European Central Bank would announce that it's ready to flood the markets with money but my idea was wrong anyway.  We've broken through the resistance for the S&P 500 on good volume and should move higher from here to attack the 1420 level.  We don't need to know why there is a rally, we just need to recognize that fact and try to profit from it.  GE was up 1/3 on heavy volume.  Breaking out to the upside here as well.  I'm considering the August 21 calls if they get cheaper.  I do not like to chase moves and the short term technicals are overbought now.  Gold gained a couple of bucks on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was weaker yet again today.  I still don't think that gold has moved as much as it should with such extensive weakness in the US dollar this week.  The XAU was up around 1 3/4.  ABX fell 1/3, GG was up 1/8 and NEM dropped 1 1/2 on poor earnings.  Volume was heavy in ABX and NEM.  I sold my August ABX calls for almost a 100% loss.  Even with 3 weeks to go the calls were too far out of the money to ever show a profit.  It's better to put that trade behind me and move on.  I'll continue to hold the ABX October calls and they are in the red.  The major gold producers and the gold shares in general have not kept pace with the gains in the precious metal.  That usually isn't a bullish sign.  The October calls have about 3 months to go.  The weekly technicals for the gold shares are oversold but that doesn't mean that they can't remain there.  We'll see what happens.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices are in rally mode.  GDP came in as expected.  Weakness can be bought in my opinion.  The summer has been anything but quiet once again.  It's possible that the XAU and some of the gold shares are putting in a double bottom here on the weekly charts.  Time will tell on that.  I just booked another big losing trade and there is nothing good to be said about that.  The lost money and mental capital has to be forgotten about in a hurry because the markets won't wait.  The markets don't care.  I'll have to regroup over the weekend and be ready for Monday morning.  We've got plenty of economic data out next week and the Fed announcement on Wednesday.  But for now it's a Friday summer afternoon and time for a rest.  

The market exploded to the upside on news out of Europe.  The Dow gained 211 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The headline risk was positive this time around.  The European Central Bank basically said it would print as much money as it takes to save the euro.  The US dollar tanked and that propelled the stock indices higher.  Perhaps this time we'll make it through the resistance at around 1370 on the S&P 500.  We'll have to see what happens after tomorrows GDP report.  GE was up 1/2 on good volume.  It looks like GE wants to continue higher here.  That will be a plus for the overall market if it happens.  Gold was higher by $7 on the futures which really wasn't much considering that the US dollar got pummeled today.  The gold shares lagged as well with some exceptions.  The XAU gained 2 7/8.  ABX fell about a buck, GG rose 2 and NEM gained 1/4.  The ABX earnings and guidance completely disappointed the market.  ABX was down 2 3/4 at one point.  It made a strong comeback but not enough to save any of my calls.  I'll probably dump the August calls tomorrow for a substantial loss.  It's possible that I can break even on the October calls if we get some type of rally in the gold shares in the next month or so.  GG is clearly the leader in relative strength here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indexes had a nice day but was it simply a one day wonder?  Perhaps this was simply a snap back rally but it didn't feel like it.  Tomorrow will tell a lot even if it is a summer Friday.  If the market continues to rally on a weak GDP number, then we should continue to move higher in the days to come.  If we drop back tomorrow the picture will be less clear.  Gold should have moved a lot more today considering the weakness in the US dollar.  Gold itself is short term overbought now as well.  ABX dropped to a new low today and there is no hope for my August calls now.  It is times like these that as a trader you just have to persevere.  My trading has been terrible all year.  It seems that nothing I'm doing is working out.  But you have to keep going.  There are still plenty of trading opportunities out there.  We'll see what transpires tomorrow.    

We broke the losing streak for the Dow today with a gain of 58 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  It was an up and down type of day in the stock indices.  A mixed market as both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ were lower on the session.  Short term oversold now for the market and a bounce is to be expected.  With the summation index heading lower, I would expect any rally attempt to be short lived.  I could be wrong.  GE was flat on the day and volume was lighter.  GE has had pretty good relative strength lately.  That is a plus for the bullish case going forward if GE is a proxy for the overall market here.  Gold had a strong day on the weaker US dollar.  The yellow metal rose $30 on the futures.  The XAU was up only 4 points as the gold shares continue to disappoint.  ABX rose 2/3, GG up 1 1/8 and NEM gained 1 1/2.  Volume was slightly above average, which is a positive.  NEM was the leader and that is usually a positive as well.  My October ABX calls are slightly in the black but the ABX August calls I own are losers and will remain so barring a miracle.  Earnings are out tomorrow for ABX and that should be a mover one way or the other for this stock.  We'll see what happens.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The S&P 500 is trying to hold on at the 50 day moving average on the daily chart.  I'm guessing that the GDP report out on Friday could be a market mover but it will be summer Friday.  So the all the usual participants may not be around.  Gold had a strong day for a change.  My thinking here is that if the GDP report is weak on Friday then gold will continue to rally on expected easing down the road from the Fed.  That's a guess as usual.  We didn't hear anything out of Europe today but that could change at any minute.  Headline risk remains.  We'll see how ABX reacts to the earnings report and take it from there.

The Dow once again made a last hour comeback but it wasn't enough to prevent the 3rd triple digit down day in a row.  The Dow fell 104 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  We were off 200 at one point intraday.  The summation index is now moving to the downside.  We've broken the up trend line in the S&P 500 that has been in effect since the beginning of June.  We could snap back to that line but the trend has changed.  Not oversold yet on the daily technicals for the stock indices but we are working or way down there.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume and has held up rather well here.  Perhaps what we will get for the overall market is more sideways action instead of a huge decline.  That's a guess as usual.  No trades in GE for me at the moment.  Gold bounced around today but finished the day little changed on the futures.  The US dollar was stronger today.  The XAU was down 3/8.  ABX fell 1/2 on good volume, while GG and NEM were little changed on light volume.  My ABX calls for August and October are losers as ABX cannot find any support whatsoever.  At this rate the earnings out on Thursday won't make a difference.  The gold shares are still under performers with relation to the price of gold.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired again, did not sleep well.  The stock indexes have been roiled by Europe once again.  The 50 day moving averages are getting close to breaking down through the 200 day moving averages on a daily basis.  That is not a positive sign.  Puts are probably the way to go or simply head to the sidelines.  The relationship between the price of gold and the gold shares has hit an extreme in my opinion.  One of two things will happen.  Either the price of gold will have to fall quite a bit or the gold shares will have to rally.  We'll see what happens.  I'm holding losing trades for ABX and the earnings are due out before the bell on Thursday.  The August calls I have are probably dead.  We'll keep an eye on Europe overnight and take it from there.

Not a typical summer Monday as the Dow was rocked early by the problems in Europe once again.  We were down over 200 but made a comeback to finish the day with a loss of 101 points.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative and the volume was average.  It certainly could have been a lot worse and the fact that we came back leads me to believe that we are not on the verge of some major market meltdown.  But anything can happen I suppose.  Europe was off the radar for a while, now it's back.  It will go away again and then come back.  This situation is like a broken record and it will not be solved anytime soon.  It makes the trading tougher than it already is.  GE was up 1/4 and the volume was good.  This is another reason why the decline probably doesn't have legs in my opinion.  GE is at times a proxy for the overall market.  We'll see how this plays out.  No trades here for me now.  Gold was off $5 on the futures but was lower early on as well.  The US dollar had some strength today on the flight to safety.  The XAU could not follow once again as it lost 4 points.  ABX off a buck, GG fell 3/4 and NEM lost 2/3.  Volume was light.  I canceled the open order that I had for the October ABX calls before the market opened.  I then replaced that order with a lower price when ABX opened lower.  That order was filled.  I still hold the August ABX calls as well that I should be getting rid of after the earnings report out on Thursday.  That trade will be a loser.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep enough.  So now all eyes will be back on Europe and whatever news comes out of there.  The headline risk returns to the marketplace.  Once again, that can cause things to go either way.  I do not have any OEX trades in mind for now.  I'm trying the ABX calls again and they haven't worked for me yet this year.  Plenty of time on this trade as it goes out for 3 months.  We'll see what happens.  There's a potential positive RSI divergence on the daily chart and the Gold/XAU ratio is off the charts to the buy side.  That ratio hasn't worked well as of late but that won't be the case forever.  We'll watch things overseas tonight and go from there.

A downside bias to expiration day as the Dow fell 120 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  Some negative noise from Spain today.  We closed the week below the important 1370 level on the S&P 500.  Perhaps we'll make another run at a breakout next week.  GE was all over the map today on the earnings report.  It opened lower, was up 1/2 and then sold off to be little changed.  Volume was heavy.  I'm not exactly sure which way it goes from here.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures today despite a stronger US dollar.  The XAU fell 3/8.  ABX, GG and NEM were mixed with fractional moves on light volume.  I'm leaving the October ABX call order open and I'm waiting to sell the August ABX calls at a loss.  Earnings for ABX are due on Thursday.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices tried to break out this week and so far have failed.  Some had gaps to the downside and that isn't a positive going forward.  However none of the up trend lines in place since June have been violated.  Gold had a pretty good performance today considering the strength in the US dollar.  Perhaps the flight to safety trade is going to make a comeback.  I'd like to own the October ABX calls before the earnings are announced.  We'll see.  I've already lost a lot of money so far this year trading the gold shares from the long side.  We are approaching the historical positive months of August and September for gold.  I'll have to ponder this trade over the weekend.  For now it's a Friday afternoon in the summer and time for a break.

An expiration drift higher today.  The Dow gained 34 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The economic data out today was weaker than expected.  No matter, there are no sellers at the moment.  We've gotten above the key 1370 area in the S&P 500.  It certainly hasn't been a robust move higher yet though.  Interesting that we haven't heard anything about Europe lately as if that problem is suddenly solved.  The market goes where it wants.  GE was off fractionally on light volume.  We'll see if tomorrows earnings report can get this issue moving.  Gold was up $10 today as the US dollar was just a bit weaker.  The CRB index has moved higher lately.  The XAU was up 1 3/4.  ABX and NEM rose 1/2, while GG gained 3/4.  Volume was light.  I did place an overnight order for the October ABX calls but it wasn't filled.  I'm leaving the order open.  My August ABX calls remain solid losers.  I'll wait for the earnings next week and probably take the loss there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock index action of late seems a bit slow and lethargic.  I guess it's perhaps finally a summer of doldrums.  Not the best trading environment.  We've got option expiration tomorrow and then I don't see any real catalysts for the market until the 2nd quarter GDP report.  So I'll sit and wait.  It's all you can do really.

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 103 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  Another day like today and we will break through the resistance on the S&P 500.  Todays economic data was better than expected.  It looks like the gains in the indices will continue.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Earnings Friday.  Gold was down $18 on the futures as the US dollar was flat on the day.  The XAU fell 1 3/4.  ABX and NEM were both off around 1/3, while GG fell 1 1/8.  Volume was light.  My ABX August calls are just about dead.  I'm considering moving out to the October calls here.  I may place an overnight order for them.  Mentally I'm feeling tired.  Todays post is abbreviated due to other commitments that I had today.  Back at full strength tomorrow.

Moving higher per expiration week as the Dow gained 78 points on what passes for average volume these days.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The market opened higher, moved lower when Bernanke started talking and then resumed its climb back to the upside.  The economic data today was about in line with expectations.  Summation index still moving to the upside.  Resistance on the S&P 500 comes in at 1370.  A decisive break above that level would send the stock indexes much higher in my opinion.  I'm not sure if that will be the case.  The down trend line at 1370 has been in effect since the beginning of April.  GE was up 1/8 on average volume.  Still oversold on the daily technicals there.  We'll look to the earnings on Friday as a catalyst one way or the other.  Gold was moving around to the downside today.  The precious metal lost a few bucks in the regular session and then fell more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was lower today as well.  The XAU was off 1 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM were all off fractionally on light volume.  I'm still holding the ABX August calls and will be until the earnings out next week.  They continue solidly in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Looking to see if we can break the longer term resistance on the stock indices and that will be the key for the near term.  The S&P 500 will easily go to 1400 if we can break through 1370 in my analysis.  Hasn't happened yet.  Gold remains range bound as it has been for weeks on end.  Not sure what will get the metal moving.  More Bernanke tomorrow along with the days economic data. 

Just another mundane Monday in the summer as the Dow fell about 50 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  No upside follow through to Fridays fireworks.  I still think we'll head higher from here with expiration week as the back drop.  We've got a couple days of Bernanke blabbering to Congress to get through.  The daily stock index technicals are mid-range so I suppose you could make a case for either direction from here.  Plenty of earnings to contend with along with a modest amount of economic data.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume.  Still holding the 50 day moving average on the daily charts.  Earnings on Friday.  I doubt I'll be attempting a trade for GE this week.  Gold was little changed on the day as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU fell 5/8.  ABX was flat while GG and NEM had fractional losses.  Volume was light.  My ABX August calls continue to be losers.  I'm resigned to waiting on the earnings report next week.  Might be too late by then.  This trade is in the cut the loss stage at this point.  The technicals are oversold though so we'll see what happens.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices continue to remain above their rising trend lines on a daily basis that began in the beginning of June.  As long as that holds the trend is higher in my opinion.  Gold has been moving sideways and the gold shares have lagged.  That usually isn't a bullish scenario going forward.  Yet I still own the August ABX calls at a loss.  Less than 5 weeks to go on this trade now.  Perhaps the earnings will help me cut the loss.  Not a good trading strategy there.  We'll wait to see what Bernanke has to say tomorrow.

We finally got the rally I was expecting as the Dow gained 203 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive.  We never got any weakness early as it was off to the races from the start.  I didn't get any OEX calls and that is another missed opportunity.  I expected some up side like this over 2 to 3 sessions, not all in one day.  The excuse is that the bank earnings were better than expected.  Didn't matter.  The stock indexes were overdue for some technical upside.  We'll probably continue higher for the short term.  GE was up 1/3 and the volume was light.  We're bouncing off of the 50 day moving average here.  Earnings in a week.  The July 20 calls here perhaps?  Probably not.  Gold rallied on a weaker US dollar as the precious metal futures rose $26.  The XAU did not follow as it only gained 2 1/3.  The under performance of the gold shares here is glaring and does not bode well for future upside.  ABX up 1/4, GG gained 7/8 and NEM added 3/4.  Volume was light.  My ABX calls are losers and ABX is under performing here as well.  The earnings are out in a week and a half so I suppose I will wait for that event.  Mentally I'm feeling discouraged of course for being stuck in a losing trade while winning ideas go by the wayside.  It's part of the game.  As always the mental capital wasted in losing efforts is the most important component.  My trading this year has not been good.  It has been exceptionally poor.  I'll need to rectify this going forward.  The stock indices have room to the upside here.  Expiration week should help move things forward along with the oversold condition technically.  The easy profits have been made though in my opinion.  Gold continues to move in a sideways channel with the gold shares simply continuing lower.  There is nothing on the horizon to change this pattern.  I will be looking out to the October ABX calls on more downside.  I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

The malaise continues as the Dow fell 31 points on what passes now for average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  I didn't get any OEX calls today but I am still interested in that trade near term.  The timing has got to be good for this idea to work.  I will consider buying them tomorrow and dumping them on Monday or Tuesday.  The short term technicals are oversold.  No real news today of any consequence and we were off over 100 points early on.  I'm still expecting at least a short covering rally soon.  GE was down 1/4 on average volume.  We've reached the 50 day moving average on the daily charts.  Oversold short term here as well.  Earnings out in a week.  No trades for me here.  Gold was lower again today on the stronger US dollar.  The gold futures closed down $10, were down over $20 at one point of the session and made a comeback in the after hours market.  The XAU fell 2/3 but was much lower than that intraday.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses after all being lower by over a buck early.  ABX and NEM have potential doji morning stars on their daily candlestick charts.  My ABX August calls are firmly in the red.  That trade is now in a cut the loss, take the loss mode.  My next attempt here will probably be the October calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  If we get some weakness in the morning for the stock indexes I'll probably try the July OEX calls.  I've been looking at this trade for a couple of days and the longer there isn't any upside the more likely it is for some to occur.  In theory anyway.  The market could just keep heading down as well.  But I don't think that is going to happen.  The ABX trade is yet another loser, it's just a matter of how much.  I still might wait until the earnings report though.  Not much else for a Thursday afternoon in the summer.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.     

5 days in a row to the downside as the Dow fell 48 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive though.  The market didn't like the Fed minutes but did stage a last hour comeback to cut the loss more than in half.  I'm pretty sure that the OEX July calls are the way to go here for a short term trade.  The daily technicals on the stock indices are at the same level where they bounced before.  The only drawback here is the apathy from the players.  There really isn't any interest from the buy side but we could at least see a short covering rally.  That's a guess as usual.  If we get some weakness again tomorrow, I might try those OEX calls.  GE was up a touch today on light volume.  The short term technicals are oversold here as well as we approach the 50 day moving average.  No trades for me here though.  Gold took a slight hit on the Fed and the slightly higher US dollar.  The precious metal futures were off around $5.  The XAU continues to under perform, losing 2 2/3.  ABX dropped 2/3, GG fell 3 1/2 and NEM shed 3/8.  Volume was above average for the gold shares and extremely heavy in GG.  GG announced a shortfall in production for the year and got clobbered.  My ABX calls remain in the red and could be on the way to the graveyard of failed trades.  There is a chance that we are putting in a double bottom for ABX on both the daily and weekly charts but it will depend on where we close for the week.  That will be the only chance for this ABX August call trade to be profitable.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  I'd like to perhaps try the OEX July calls here but I am still stuck in the ABX trade.  I don't know if I'd like to put on more risk.  I'll see what happens tomorrow morning and go from there.  There really isn't a catalyst out there for higher prices that I see but the market will go where it wants to.  We've had plenty of bad news lately and the stock indexes have held up rather well.  Plus we have expiration week coming up which usually has a positive bias.  So we'll see.  I'll keep an eye on things overnight and go from there.   

A downer Tuesday as the Dow fell 83 points on better than lately volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  We made a last half hour comeback in the indices or it would have been worse.  No apparent reason for the decline but there are no buyers and there is no interest.  I think the market is falling on its own weight.  If I am to attempt the OEX July call trade the time is now.  We are back to the up trend line at the 615 area.  I'm sure if I wasn't involved in the current ABX trade that I would try the OEX.  GE fell 3/8 and the volume was good.  I suppose the July GE calls are out of the question now.  It appears that we had a false breakout on the weekly GE chart.  We have now fallen back below the previous resistance.  If this continues for GE that would not bode well for the overall market.  Gold fell today as well, the futures were off about $10 and another $10 in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 5 1/8.  ABX off a buck, GG down 7/8 and NEM lost 1 1/3.  Volume was weak here again.  There is no buying interest.  My ABX August calls are now solidly in the red.  I'll need to see some kind of upside before the end of the week here or this will be yet another losing trade.  The short term technicals are oversold for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'll have to think long and hard about getting the OEX July calls tonight.  Perhaps the Fed minutes will be an upside catalyst for the stock indexes tomorrow.  That's a guess as usual.  The short term technicals for the stock indices are mid-range.  Todays bearish action appeared out of nowhere really.  I guess maybe there won't be any summer doldrums again this year either.  The dollar is breaking out to new highs for the year and that won't be bullish for gold.  We are short term overbought in the US dollar though.  We'll keep an eye on things tonight and see what happens tomorrow.

A lackluster start to the trading week as the Dow fell 36 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  Monday back from a long holiday week and the summer doldrums are here.  For a day at least.  No news of any importance and Europe was quiet today.  We are trying to bounce off of the 50 day moving average in the Dow.  I may try the OEX calls later in the week.  GE didn't do much today and the volume was light.  No trades there for now and the earnings are due on the last trading day of the July option cycle.  The gold futures were up $10 as the US dollar fell today.  The XAU dropped a point and change though as the gold shares are lagging the price of the metal itself.  That isn't a bullish sign for those issues.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  My August ABX calls are in the red now.  However I still plan on holding them for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There is trend line support for the OEX at the 615 level.  If we work our way back to that, I will probably try the July 620 calls.  That is the next idea on my radar screen.  I'd like to hang on the the August ABX calls until the earnings come out later this month.  But the markets will go where they want to.  I don't expect much out of this week.  Not much economic data due.  The Fed minutes will be out on Wednesday.  Earnings reports begin tonight.  We'll see if there are any surprises. 

The employment report came and went as the Dow fell 124 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The jobs number was a bit weaker than expected.  The result could have been worse but we came back in the last hour and a half.  Hard to say what will happen on Monday as the volume has been light all week.  I'm still going to be a believer in higher prices before the July option expiration.  Summation index still to the upside and the market has the feel of wanting to go higher.  GE fell 1/3 and the volume was good.  Not sure about the calls here as we broke through the longer term resistance only to fall right back below it.  I thought that the breakout was valid bit I guess not.  I'll check the charts again over the weekend.  Gold had a poor showing today as the US dollar rose despite the weak jobs report.  The precious metal fell $30 on the futures on the stronger dollar.  The XAU dropped 4 1/2.  ABX off 1 1/4, GG dropped a buck and NEM lost 1 1/8.  Volume was light.  My August ABX calls are now barely in the black.  Could be now that this trade is not going to work out.  I'll have to ponder this over the weekend.  The short term technicals have rolled over and the weeklies have too.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well.  I'm not exactly sure what will happen next to the stock indexes but the trend is still up for now.  I may be looking at a July OEX call trade.  Gold looks a lot worse than it did at the close of last week.  I will have to do the work over the weekend and try and come up with a game plan for the ABX trade next week.  I'm inclined to hold onto it for now.  Perhaps we'll get all the summer players back next week.  Right now, it's time for a break.

A bit of weakness before the jobs report as the Dow fell 47 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  In a holding pattern for the stock indices until tomorrow.  Still short term overbought here.  The summation index continues higher.  I don't think that the summer rally has ended, even if we do move lower tomorrow.  The markets appear to be in holiday mode.  GE was off 1/8 on that very light volume.  I might still try the July calls before the earnings announcement but not completely sold on that idea.  Gold fell today as the US dollar posted a strong session.  The gold futures were off over $10, which wasn't too bad considering the strength in the dollar.  The XAU dropped 1 2/3.  ABX down 5/8, GG lost 3/8 and NEM fell 2/3.  Volume was average for ABX, light otherwise.  My ABX August calls lost some ground but are still showing a profit.  The technicals for ABX are mid-range on a daily basis.  My plan here is to hold onto the calls for a while, probably into the earnings report at the end of the month.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The employment report and the market reaction to it will be the key for the near term.  Perhaps the strength in the US dollar today was a clue that the numbers won't be so bad tomorrow.  That's a guess as usual.  There also are not as many players as usual due to the mid-week holiday.  That can skew things as well.  We'll see what happens in the morning and go from there.

Continuing higher and that is the plan as the Dow gained 72 points on extremely holiday light volume.  The US markets closed early today.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 positive.  An overseas bank scandal did nothing to stop the rise in the stock indices today.  A market that shrugs off bad news is one that is going higher.  The S&P 500 is at its resistance line on the daily charts.  The smaller stocks have already broken through their resistance and the S&P 500 should follow.  GE was off a touch on extremely light volume.  Not exactly sure why GE isn't joining in the party here.  Still overbought on the daily technicals here but that doesn't mean that we can't go higher.  I may look at the July calls once again.  Gold had a good day, up over $20 on the futures.  The US dollar was just a bit weaker.  The XAU rose 5 7/8.  ABX and NEM climbed 1 1/4, while GG was up 1 7/8.  Volume was very light.  My ABX August calls are in the black.  The daily technicals are mid-range, so there is still room to the upside in my opinion.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The stock indexes are in full summer rally mode.  We'll see how far we can go.  There's always the risk of some headline out of Europe but as we've seen recently that can go either way.  Friday is the next event in my mind but the market may ignore that as well.  Gold has found a bid here and I certainly don't know why.  We were short term oversold though.  We'll watch events overseas if there are any, take tomorrow off and be back on Thursday.  

Pretty much just a drift today as the Dow fell 8 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  The summation index continues higher.  The economic news today for the US was soft but the market wants to go higher here.  Summer rally mode continues.  We should move higher into the employment report on Friday.  It's a vacation week with the July 4th holiday right in the middle.  I would not expect a lot of volatility or volume.  GE fell 1/3 on average volume.  Still overbought here on the daily technicals.  We did have a vaid breakout on Friday though.  I'm not sure if I'm going to try the July calls here.  Gold was off around $5 on the futures as the US dollar bounced today.  The XAU was up 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional moves to the downside on very light volume.  My ABX calls are still in the black.  At his point I plan on holding the calls until the earnings report at the end of this month.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices are in a waiting game until Fridays employment report.  Throw in a holiday in the middle of the week and very light volume.  So I really don't expect much in the way of market moves for now.  I do think that we'll drift higher for the time being.  Gold should be quiet as well as the market players are on holiday.  I'll simply watch and wait for the numbers on Friday.

We got another headline event today but this time it was to the upside.  The Dow soared 277 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive.  Europes problems are solved for now according to todays headlines.  The summit meeting has produced an agreement that the markets like.  It doesn't matter today if it actually works or not.  The summer rally lives on.  The stock indices are breaking through short term resistance lines and higher prices are still on the horizon.  You can't argue with price and volume.  Purchasing calls is the way to go here.  GE was up 2/3 on heavy volume and we have broken through the longer term resistance here going back a year and a half.  The short term technicals are overbought and have been for weeks.  Any pullback here can be bought.  The action in GE is bullish for the overall market also.  Gold soared today as well when the US dollar got clobbered on the European headlines.  The futures gained over $50.  The XAU only rose 5 points though as the gold shares have once again underperformed the metal lately.  That usually isn't bullish going forward for the gold shares.  ABX, GG and NEM were all higher by at least 1 1/3.  The volume was nothing special.  The ABX calls I have are in the black.  I also noticed some extremely high volume in some of the ABX call options.  Not exactly sure what that means.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Some of my ideas have panned out lately but I haven't cashed in on them.  That is really all that matters in this game.  However I did think that things would slow down here and they certainly haven't done that.  The stock indexes are going to go higher here, my guess is at least for the next 3 weeks before the July option expiration.  Declines can be bought.  The daily gold share charts look like there is plenty of room to move to the upside as the technicals are closer to the oversold side.  But anything can and will happen.  I'm not sure how long I will hold on the the ABX call trade.  I will have to check the charts over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

We got the Supreme courts ruling on healthcare today and the market initially sold off.  However the Dow made a huge comeback in the final hour to finish the day with just a loss of 25 points.  We were down 175 during the session.  Volume was average and the advance/declines were positive.  This now feels like a market that wants to go higher.  The summation index is heading to the upside.  The short term technicals for the stock indices are now oversold.  I am expecting the summer rally to kick back into gear here with the short holiday week coming up.  I could be wrong.  There's always a chance for some bad news from Europe.  GE managed a slight gain today and the volume continues to be good.  We are once again on the cusp of breaking the resistance at 20.25.  Calls are recommended if we get through that level but they probably should already have been purchased.  If 20.25 is breached to the upside on good volume it will also bode well for the stock indices.  Who knows?  Maybe I'll still try some July calls there.  Gold had a rough day as the US dollar was stronger.  The precious metal fell $28 on the futures.  The XAU dropped 3 points.  ABX down 1/3, GG lost 1 1/3 and NEM off a buck.  Volume was about average.  I dumped the ABX August calls that I had for a 60% loss.  I already didn't like the timing on the entry and decided to simply get out.  Plenty of time left but I did not want to stay.  I do still believe in that idea so I repurchased the ABX August calls at a lower strike price.  They are slightly in the black.  I could have held on to the first purchase and tried to cut the loss but then I would have had more money tied up in this idea than I wanted.  There would have been too much risk and the trade is risky enough as it is.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well.  The stock indexes made a good comeback today and we'll see if they can follow through tomorrow.  I suspect that they will.  Volume should be slow in the markets for the next week due to the July 4th holiday next Wednesday.  I took another trading loss today and I am almost back to breakeven for the first half of the year.  My trading has been horrible so far in 2012 to say the least.  I will have to do better in the second half of the year.  I don't expect any headlines out from Europe overnight but you never know.  We'll close out June tomorrow.

It's a 2 day rally now as the Dow gained 92 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  The market breadth implies higher prices are coming.  The problem here is the volume is light and I don't trust light volume rallies.  We now have lows above lows and also highs below highs in the S&P 500.  So the market is still trying to figure out which way to go.  I'm back to leaning towards the bullish cause.  GE is one of the reasons why as it gained 1/3 on average volume.  On the daily chart, GE broke its downtrend line since March, snapped back to that line last week and has now resumed its uptrend.  It appears that the resistance at 20.25 will soon be taken out.  The July calls were the correct trade.  But that could all change on the next headline out of Europe.  Gold was up a couple of bucks today on the futures.  The US dollar was a bit higher as well.  The XAU was off 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  My August ABX calls are in the red and I do not like the way this trade has started out.  The technicals for ABX are oversold though so we should at least see some type of bounce here soon.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Waiting on the European summit and some economic data out tomorrow.  End of the month, quarter and first half of the year on Friday.  The summation index continues higher.  I'm already not feeling too good about this ABX August call trade.  The entry timing was off.  There has been nothing but bad news for ABX lately.  Perhaps I'll just simply exit the trade before the weekend.  Next week should be slow with the July 4th holiday on Wednesday.  Perhaps I should have simply stayed on the sidelines a bit longer.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We bounced around today as the Dow finished with a gain of 32 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher but that appears to be a bit misleading considering we've just had a couple of triple digit down days.  I think the market is trying to make up its mind here on which direction to take.  No headline event today.  Getting short term oversold on the stock indices.  GE had a nice move to the upside, gaining 1/3 on good volume.  Perhaps this stock will be the leader for the overall market.  The relative strength for GE lately has been pretty good.  Maybe I should have stuck with the original plan for the GE July calls.  We still need to take out the overhead resistance at around 20.25.  Gold fell back down today as the futures were off about $15.  The US dollar was a touch weaker today.  The XAU fell 2.  ABX dropped 1 1/3, GG lost 1/2 and NEM shed 7/8.  Volume was light to average.  My open order for the ABX August calls was filled in the morning.  It's already in the red.  I could have gotten a better fill if I had waited a while longer but hindsight always has a better fill it seems.  Plenty of time for this trade but I would like to see some upside from here.  Oversold on the gold shares now.  One thing that I don't think is in my favor is the lack of relative strength lately in ABX.  It has been a laggard.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm in the next trade now and I thought I might take a break from the game but today looked like an opportunity for me.  We'll see what happens.  The stock indexes have started to move lower after the nice run up ealier this month.  Anything could happen really due to the uncertainty in Europe.  Perhaps we'll get more clarity on the direction of things after this weeks European summit.  Or not.  That in itself shows the type of problems that we face in this kind of trading environment.  We'll watch what happens overseas tonight and go from there.   

We started off the last week of June with a triple digit loss as the Dow fell 138 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  I suppose I can't call it a summer rally anymore when we've lost roughly 350 points in the last 3 days.  I expected the stock indices to hold up here and clearly they haven't.  More rumblings out of Europe today as there is yet another important meeting at the end of this week.  Elections, meetings and summits occur yet nothing is really being done to help solve the problems over there.  That is the problem in itself.  Nothing short of default can fix things in the credit markets there really.  Perhaps the markets are finally figuring that out and factoring it in.  I don't know.  GE dropped about 1/3 on light volume.  I'm not considering the July calls here anymore.  I'm starting to get the feeling that the market is in trouble.  Gold was up $20 on the futures today as the US dollar showed strength as well.  The flight to safety trade came back on today.  The XAU was only up 1 1/4 though.  ABX up 1/3, GG gained a buck and NEM rose 7/8.  Volume was OK.  I looked at the gold share charts over the weekend and have determined that this will be my next trade.  I probably should have purchased something today.  I did place an open order for some August ABX calls and I am leaving it in overnight.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  As I have already mentioned more than once, we are at the mercy of the latest headline from wherever.  Be it from China, Europe or Washington.  For some reason this is the enviornment at the moment more so than usual.  Technically the stock indexes are mid-range the indicators and moving down.  The reported economic data is taking a back seat right now.  We've got the end of the month coming up.  The hoped for summer doldrums in the market are not happening once again.  I suppose I could always just wait things out on the sidelines.  However the technicals on the gold shares have moved back down to oversold on a short term basis..  The ongoing uncertainty should be a positive for gold.  I'm probably going to take another shot there.  We'll see what happens.

We didn't see any follow through to the downside today as the Dow gained 67 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  I'd have to say that whoever wanted to sell did so yesterday.  If this was the start of a bigger decline, I think we would have seen more liquidation today.  I could be wrong.  I'm not exactly sure what to expect next week but I'm still a believer that declines can be bought.  We may chop around here for a while but I think that the summer rally is still alive.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  Perhaps I should have bought the July calls yesterday.  We still need to break the resistance at around 20.25 on good volume for the all clear sign.  I'll look this over again during the weekend.  Gold didn't do much in the futures market but rose around $5 in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was quiet today as well.  The XAU dropped 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM moved fractionally one way or the other on light volume.  We're not completely oversold technically on the gold shares just yet but I'm considering the August and October calls.  This is another area that I'll have to study over the weekend.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  So we had the huge drop in the stock indices yesterday and today not much of anything.  I don't exactly know what to make of it.  Gold got clobbered yesterday as well and no follow through downside today either.  We're still at the mercy of the next headline coming out of Europe.  Or perhaps when the Supreme court rules on health care we'll get some more volatility.  Plenty of economic data out next week as well.  There's still 4 weeks to go in the July option cycle.  The first week of July could be slow due to the holiday in the middle of the week.  There are many things to consider before taking on the next trade.  But for now it's a sunny summer Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

Is the summer rally over already?  The Dow got clobbered today, losing 250 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 5 to 1 negative.  The economic data was weak today but it has been for a while.  It was simply a mass sell off of all assets.  I don't know the reasons why.  Oil broke the $80 level today which implies demand is even weaker than previously thought.  Is there a worldwide economic contraction about to take place?  Is Europe about to implode?  Many questions come to the surface after a day like today.  Especially since it came out of nowhere.  Time will tell if it was a one day wonder or not.  GE fell over 1/2 on good volume.  We were on the cusp of breaking out from the resistance that has been in place since early 2011.  We've now pulled back from there.  I don't know what the next move is from here after todays debacle.  I am no longer looking at the July calls here.  Gold got hammered as the US dollar returned as a safe haven today.  The precious metal fell $50 on the futures.  The XAU dropped 9 1/8.  ABX off by 2, GG lost 1 2/3 and NEM shed 2 1/2.  Volume was light.  I mentioned possibly getting some GDX puts 2 days ago but the option premiums didn't get to where I wanted.  That was finally an idea that would have been the right move.  However I'm still looking out 2 or 3 months for the gold share calls and todays drop in price will make those options look more attractive price wise.  However I'm not exactly sure what is going on here with the markets so I'll be on the sidelines for now.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep enough.  Todays action was really a shot out of the blue.  I don't think anybody saw a day like this coming out of nowhere.  It will be important to see if there is any follow through tomorrow.  Even with todays action the summation index will still be trending higher.  Gold got clocked and we will have to see if it can find support at its recent lows.  It will also be interesting to see what happens overseas tonight and tomorrow.  I'll need to check the charts tonight and try to figure out what is going on.  However a more in depth study of things will need to occur over the weekend.

We got the expected Fed announcement out of the way as the markets gyrated like a ping pong ball in a tornado.  The Fed will continue operation twist until the end of the year.  Ho hum really.  The Dow ended the session with a loss of 13 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  We're still short term overbought but that doesn't mean we can't go higher.  The summer rally isn't over yet in my opinion.  The resistance on the S&P 500 comes in at between 1370 1nd 1380.  The summation index continues higher.  GE was up 1/8 on average volume and closed on the highs for the day.  We are right at the downtrend line in effect since the beginning of 2011 on the weekly charts.  If we can break through here on decent volume, GE will have no overhead resistance and higher it will go.  Still short term overbought and staying there.  Gold bounced all over the place today and finished down $7 on the futures and at least that much more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar gyrated as well but finished the day relatively unchanged.  The XAU fell 1 1/2.  ABX was unchanged, while GG and NEM had fractional losses.  Volume was good.  The gold shares continue to outperform the precious metal.  I'm looking at gold share calls going out a couple of months.  I"ll still be waiting for some type of pullback first though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we got the Fed over with and now what?  There's always the possibility of some type of headline out of Europe, either positive or negative.  Event risk is still possible at any time.  So it remains a time to be vigilant and to keep an eye on developments around the world.  Although I am hoping that we get a case of the summer doldrums this year.  We'll see how the overseas markets react to todays news and go from there.    

Short covering and buying before the Fed as the Dow rose 95 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive.  We were up around 150 during the day.  The summation index continues to the upside and we are in full blown summer rally mode.  Even if the Fed does nothing and we drop tomorrow, the market wants to go higher.  Overbought, staying there and what more can I say?  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  It's pattern today mirrored the overall market, closing off of its high.  Perhaps the July calls are to purchased on a pullback but it looks like the majority of the up move has occurred.  That could change if we break through the resistance that we are knocking on at the moment.  Gold fell a few dollars on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket.  This despite the US dollar getting clobbered today.  Gold should be moving higher with a weaker US dollar.  The XAU was up about 2/3.  ABX, GG and NEM moved fractionally one way or the other on light volume.  I'm considering getting some GDX puts before the Fed tomorrow.  The gold shares are overbought and if the Fed does nothing tomorrow gold should drop.  If a lower dollar isn't helping gold then perhaps the market is telling us something.  Or not.  Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well.  So we'll get the Fed announcement and go from there.  It is bound to be a market mover since the anticipation is even higher than normal.  Everyone expects the Fed to do something now, so if it doesn't we should see some selling.  Even so, declines can be purchased for now in my opinion.  I'm expecting a drop in gold tomorrow and if the premiums are where I'd like to see them I may purchase some GDX July puts.  We'll see.  The overseas stock indexes rallied yesterday and I would expect some follow through tomorrow.  As the world settles down the flight to safety trade is being unwound.  That would help explain todays weakness in the US dollar and gold.  We'll see what happens tomorrow. 

A waiting game for now in my opinion as the Dow fell 25 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The Greek vote is out of the way and there were no surprises.  Greece remains in the euro for now.  But anything can still happen.  The next key market event will be the Fed announcement on Wednesday.  Once we get through that I don't see much on the horizon.  Perhaps this will be the summer of the doldrums finally.  I've been looking for that the past 2 years and it hasn't happened.  Technically the stock indices are still short term overbought.  GE was off 1/4 on light volume.  Overbought here as well.  I'm still considering the July calls here but will have to see more of a pullback.  Gold didn't do much today despite a higher US dollar.  The XAU rose 3 points as the gold shares continue to outperform the metal itself.  That is bullish for the gold shares going forward.  ABX and NEM were both higher by more than 1/2 while GG was up 1/8.  Volume was light.  I'm looking at going out to October with the calls here, at least that is my thought for today.  Subject to change of course.  There is no rush for this trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Stocks are overbought, the summation index continues higher and the summer rally has begun.  We could just simply grind our way higher here in the short term.  There's always the surprise European headline factor but with all the hype that surrounded the Greek vote over and done with, I think things there will quiet down for now.  It is all eyes on the Fed now as whatever comes out on Wednesday will be dissected and talked about to death.  We will gauge the markets reaction to the announcement and go from there.  5 weeks on the July option cycle.  Tuesday should be another non-event for the markets.  There is also a G-20 summit but I don't expect anything concrete to come out of that blabber fest.  We'll watch the overseas markets for clues about tomorrows market direction. 

No worries about Greece today as the Dow gained 115 points on good volume.  The decent volume was probably Friday expiration related.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  Summation index continues higher.  The economic data reported today was weak in the US but it didn't matter.  Perhaps the market is expecting the Fed to come up with QE3 next week.  The stock indices are short term overbought and staying there.  I don't think that there's any doubt now that the summer rally has begun.  GE gained about 1/4 on good volume.  I really should have been in the July GE call trade and I still think there is a chance to do it looking at the weekly charts.  We are right up against the resistance line that has been in effect since the beginning of 2011.  If we get some near term pullback The July 19 or 20 GE calls should be the next trade.  There are 5 weeks in the July cycle and if we break out from resistance we'll get to 21 at the least.  We'll see what happens.  Gold was up $8 on the futures as the US dollar continued lower yet again.  It seems like the flight to the US dollar has subsided for now.  The XAU was up 3/8.  ABX was up 1/2, while GG and NEM had fractional losses.  Volume was very heavy in the gold shares today.  Expiration related?  I don't know.  I'll probably try the gold shares on the call side again when the positive seasonality takes over in the middle of the summer.  August and September are usually the strongest months for the price of gold.  For now though I'll most likely be on the sidelines here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK despite the recent losses in the ABX call trade.  There's nothing that I can do about it now.  The first half of the trading year has been terrible for me as far as confidence goes.  If it wasn't for the huge gain to start the year, I'd be showing heavy capital losses.  My trading win percentage is horrible.  I've got to get my act together in the second half.  I'm just going to have to focus better and work harder.  The stock indexes appear to simply want to go higher here.  The sellers have disappeared for now.  So much has been said about this weekends Greek elections that it could turn out to be a non-event for the markets if the expected stay with the euro group wins.  I'm starting to think that whatever happens with the Fed next week will actually be the big market moving event.  We'll see.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.  

Back and forth we go as the stock market tries to figure out which direction it wants to go.  The Dow gained 155 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  No worries about Europe today but that could change at any time.  It is still a headline driven marketplace.  It still has the feel of higher prices coming though to me.  GE was up 1/3 on good volume.  Overbought and staying there for GE.  It is looking more and more as though GE is the proxy for the overall market at this point.  Missing on the July calls cost me more than just a missed trade as I'll explain in a minute.  Gold traded flat on the futures but rose in the aftermarket about $5.  The US dollar was lower yet again today.  The XAU gained 1 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on average volume.  I dumped the ABX June Calls for a 95% loss.  I did not even know it was expiration week until I received a notice from my brokerage about this trade this morning.  I had been paying so much attention to the GE July calls that I thought the June options expired next Friday and not tomorrow.  Call is absent minded, foolish or just plain stupid.  That has never happened to me before in my entire trading life.  Lack of focus on the trade at hand?  Really?  I'm planning my strategy for an extra week of option life that isn't even there.  There wasn't a lot of money in the trade thankfully but that mistake was ridiculous.  Yeah, it's an embarrassment but it happened and there is no excuse.  Mentally I feel like an idiot.  Am I really trading the already difficult options market and I don't know when the Friday expiration is?  Maybe I need a break.  So tomorrow is expiration Friday and then we have the Greek election that the whole world is so focused on.  The summation index continues higher and I am going to guess that the summer rally began with the low on June 4th.  I don't have any trades in mind at the moment.  Perhaps I'll simply bury my head in the sand for the summer.  Doubtful. 

We hung around for most of the day but then dropped in the final couple of hours as the Dow fell 77 points on light volume.  A last minute comeback saved a loss of over 100.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  I'm not sure if we are consolidating the gains of last week or getting ready to head lower.  The US economic data today was weak but it really wasn't a market mover.  The Greek election is this weekend and I don't believe anybody seriously considers Greece is going to abandon the euro.  We're in a wait and see mode for now as far as the stock indices are concerned.  Still more short term overbought than oversold at this point.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume.  Short term overbought here as well.  No trades there for now.  Gold rose another $5 on the futures today as the US dollar dropped again.  The XAU was flat after being higher for much of the day.  ABX was flat as well.  GG and NEM had fractional gains.  Volume was average.  My June ABX calls are just about dead and the relative strength of ABX here is abysmal.  I think the next gold share trade for me will be with GDX.  That is at least a basket of the gold shares with enough liquidity for decent option quotes.  The extra risk of trading an individual gold share issue in this case wasn't worth it.  It's something to ponder going forward.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indexes are trying to make up their mind on which way to go here.  You could make a case for either direction.  7 days left in the June option cycle.  I think that we are going to move higher but that is just a guess.  Gold has been acting well lately but it hasn't helped the gold shares.  It would take a small miracle for me to have an acceptable loss in the June ABX call trade.  Stranger things have happened.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 162 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 positive.  So today was basically the opposite of yesterday.  The market seems to have the feel of wanting to go higher.  The summation index continues to the upside.  Perhaps we are in the beginning of the summer rally.  However we are still in a headline driven market and today had no headlines.  Retail sales should be a mover for tomorrow.  GE was up about 1/3 on average volume and closed at the high for the day.  I obviously should have gotten the July calls here instead of the June ABX calls.  If GE is a proxy for the overall market then the stock indexes will be heading higher.  Too late to try the calls here though at this point.  Overbought in the short term on GE.  Gold had a good day, up $17 on the futures as the US dollar was weaker.  The XAU rose 3 1/8.  ABX up 1/4, GG gained 3/4 and NEM tacked on a buck.  Volume was average.  My ABX calls are still very much in the red.  Unfortunately ABX is now the laggard among the major gold stocks.  This trade is on the way to being another loser.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well.  The stock indexes acted quite well today.  There were no apparent reasons.  Gold was up as well.  I'm in another losing trade with 8 days to go in the June option cycle.  ABX will have to have some type of strong move to the upside in order for me to exit with a smaller loss.  I suppose anything can happen with the Greek election this weekend but I don't think that they will be abandoning the euro anytime soon.  We'll watch the foreign markets tonight and go from there.

It was a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The Dow lost 143 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative.  Spain is getting a bailout now and I suppose that can be the reason for todays action.  We were short term overbought on the stock indices and some type of pullback was expected.  Where we go from here is the question and I don't have the answers.  My best guess is that we will be moving higher, not lower, going forward.  I do not think that we will break the lows recently seen.  Not yet at least.  GE was off a bit on light volume.  The relative strength here has been impressive, as GE was actually higher for most of the day.  I'm still considering the July calls but perhaps the opportune time has passed.  Gold was up $5 on the futures and the US dollar was up a touch as well.  The XAU however followed the overall market lower, losing 2 2/3.  ABX and NEM fell 3/4, while GG lost 1/2.  Volume was about average.  My ABX calls remain in the red.  It looks like this trade will be a loser unless ABX makes a quick turnaround.  That doesn't seem very likely but gold can be volatile and there are 9 days to go in the June option cycle.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Markets around the globe began with strong rallies when they opened only to sell off as the sessions progressed.  Not exactly sure what that means going forward but it usually isn't bullish.  We're still in a headline driven environment.  Have to see if there is follow through downside tomorrow.  Gold saw a bit of a bid today on the ongoing uncertainty but the gold shares did not follow.  My recent ABX trade is not going well.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.  

We continued higher today as the Dow gained 93 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The action was bullish today as we were able to overcome the late sell off of yesterday.  The stock indices are short term overbought now but the trend is up.  The summation index is heading higher.  Declines can be purchased in my opinion as this is probably the start of the summer rally.  Of course this could all change with some type of bad news out of Europe but I doubt it.  We'll see some weakness at some point next week but I don't think it will last.  GE was up 20 cents and the volume was really heavy once again.  That makes 2 days in a row where the volume just zoomed at the end of the day.  I don't know what is going on here but I will surely buy some calls if we get a pullback.  In retrospect, I should have done this trade for the July calls early in the week.  Gold was up $3 on the futures after being lower early.  Not too bad considering the meltdown yesterday.  The US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU was up a point.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  My ABX June calls are still in the red.  I'll have to see some strength in ABX next week for this trade to have a chance.  It's possible since we're in a market with volatility and one that's driven by the most recent headline.  2 weeks left in the June option cycle.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It appears that last Fridays swoon on the employment report was the end of the decline.  The weekly stock index candlestick charts now look bullish.  The GE weekly chart is bullish as well.  I'll be looking at July calls on any declines now.  Gold did not have a good week and I think it could either way here.  We'll have to see what happens over the weekend and take it from there.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow continued higher today as it rose 46 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative as the overall market was weaker than the Dow.  Bernanke gave no hints of more QE but the markets were higher for most of the day.  However the markets could not hold on to their gains.  Tomorrow will be important for the near term direction of things.  If we can rally again, that would really be a positive going forward.  If not, we'll still be held hostage by the problems in Europe.  Technically the stock indices broke through their down trend lines from May but have since returned to those lines.  The indicators are mid-range.  GE was up 1/8 on very heavy volume.  I'm not sure what all the volume was about.  I'll try the July calls here if we get some pullback.  Gold got hammered today as the futures fell about $45.  Bernankes testimony was the supposed culprit.  The US dollar was only up a touch.  The XAU fell 4 1/4, which wasn't that bad considering the drop in gold.  ABX off 1 2/3, GG dropped 1 1/8 and NEM fell a buck.  Volume was good.  I put in an overnight order for some ABX June calls and it was filled in the morning.  This trade is already in the red.  ABX has fallen much more than I expected on the news of the CEOs firing, having lost 5 points in 2 days.  There's still 2 weeks to go in the June option cycle and I plan on holding this trade into sometime next week.  But it already isn't looking good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll have to see what happens tomorrow before the weekend but I'm still thinking that the decline is over for the most part.  I'm sticking with the theory that declines can now be bought.  If the price of the July GE calls that I'm looking at come down enough, I'll be giving that trade a try.  I do think that there is a possibility that things will slow down after the June expiration.  The Greek election and the Fed meeting will be behind us by then.  Volatility has returned for now and that should keep option premiums higher than usual.  I'm in my next trade and it looks like I'm early.  Gold is really moving around here but I think the worst is over there as well.  We'll see what happens tonight and take it from there.

The stock market soared today as the Dow gained 286 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 8 to 1 positive.  This is the type of short covering, explosive up move that you should expect after the market had gotten so very oversold.  We haven't broken the down trend line on the major stock indices yet but I think we will in a matter of time.  You've got the positive RSI divergence and what looks like the completion of an A-B-C-D-E move down on the daily charts.  Todays action should move the summation index back up.  The market knows things that we don't and we have to listen to it.  Of course things could all change tomorrow if Europe implodes but I don't expect anything like that to happen.  GE took off and it looks like the July call trade has been missed.  GE rose 2/3 on average volume.  If we are lucky enough to get some type of pullback here, I'd be willing to give the July calls a try.  But I think the time has passed.  Gold had an interesting day as it gained $17 on the futures but then began to sell off in the aftermarket when the Fed beige book was released.  The dollar took a beating today and there was no real reason.  Perhaps the market is telegraphing the end of the euro worries for now.  The XAU was up 1/3 but was higher earlier in the day.  ABX was the big loser of the day, down over 1 1/2 as it announced the dumping of its CEO.  GG and NEM had small fractional gains.  The gold shares are due a rest and now is as good a time as any.  That's a guess as usual.  I might try the ABX calls for June since they have really come of off the highs.  Today was a one day reversal as ABX opened higher and closed lower.  Also todays downside move in ABX was a news driven event and the problems in Europe haven't quite been solved just yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Today was an incredible move to the upside and I believe it to be real.  However in bear markets sometimes rallies spring up from nowhere.  Today certainly fits that description.  But I think that there is enough technical evidence to declare the downside finished here for the stock indices.  I'll be looking to get long on pullbacks.  It looks like I've missed the GE call trade just as I missed the recent gold share call trade.  This is a pattern that I need to break.  I might try the gold shares to the long side here if we get some short term decline.  Bernanke will be flapping his gums in front of Congress tomorrow and we should move off of that one way or the other.  We should see some follow through rallies overseas tonight and go from there. 

So we got somewhat of a bounce today as the Dow gained 26 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  Still oversold on the stock indices.  Lack of volume today and it is hard to trust light volume rallies.  Seems like we're in a waiting mode on Europe and Bernanke.  It's probably still a time to be careful.  I would have expected a larger move to the upside today.  Perhaps we'll get some type of short covering move to the upside later this week.  GE was up about a dime on lighter volume.  I'm considering the July GE calls again but there appears to be no technical support on the charts until another 75 cents down.  So I'm on the sidelines but keeping an eye on things.  Gold was up a couple of bucks today as the US dollar was higher as well.  The flight to safety trade continues to attract capital.  The XAU was up 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves in either direction.  Volume was lighter than it has been.  I'm leaving in the open order for the GG June call trade.  We are overbought on the gold shares but I'm still a believer that they're going higher.  I could be wrong.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The European markets will re-open tonight and we will probably take our cues from there.  I'm still expecting higher prices in the short term for the stock indexes.  But we are still in the headline risk environment.  However the risk could also have a positive outcome if a European Greek rescue plan comes about.  Or not.  That is the problem in the type of trading atmosphere.  Things could go either way.  We'll keep an eye out on what transpires.

Kind of a mixed bag today as the Dow fell 17 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  We were much lower for most of the day but started to come back in the last 2 hours of the trading session.  Short term oversold on the stock indices here with a possible positive divergence on the daily RSI indicator.  The European markets are closed both today and tomorrow.  We should see some type of bounce here tomorrow.  GE fell 3/8 and has broken through the last near term support.  Volume was good.  Todays action would be considered a negative for the overall market going forward if GE is going to be a proxy for the stock indexes.  I'm still looking at the July calls here but simply keep lowering the strike price.  Perhaps today was the time to buy the calls but with no underlying support on the daily charts, I stayed on the sidelines.  Gold fell $8 on the futures but came back in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was weaker today.  The XAU was lower early but came back to post a gain of almost 2 points.  ABX and GG had fractional gains, while NEM rose 1 1/4.  Volume was pretty good.  I placed an order for some June GG calls.  GG has yet to break its down trend line on the daily charts that goes back to the beginning of March.  We are right on the cusp of doing so though.  I'm leaving the order open but most likely I have simply missed the opportunity to profit from the current rise in the gold shares.  The gold shares are short term overbought now.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  We did get some follow through to the downside today in the stock indices but began to fight our way back.  I'm expecting higher prices tomorrow.  I'll consider the July GE trade tonight.  Money continues to flow into the gold shares and this is a trend that I expect to continue for a while.  Declines, if we see any, can be bought.  Not a lot of economic data out this week but we do have a meeting in Europe and Bernanke testifies before Congress on Thursday.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Well, I could not have been more wrong.  I felt that the level of bearishness was just too high and that stock prices would at least stabilize if not move higher.  I thought that the time had already passed for a market collapse.  That certainly isn't happening.  The Dow fell 275 points today after a weaker than expected jobs report.  The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative and volume was good.  Expect some follow through to the downside on Monday.  We might get a McClellan oscillator divergence by then but it may not mean anything.  Today did not have the climatic feel of a bottom but my take on things lately has been off anyway.  European problems weren't highlighted today and they haven't gone away.  I suppose the only plus for me here is that at least I'm not in any losing trades.  GE was off 1/2 on good volume.  I'm not so sure about the July calls here now.  I may go down a strike price but I will probably just sit things out for now.  Gold was the upside star of the day.  The futures gained almost $60 today.  The US dollar lost a bit of ground but not much considering the jobs number.  The flight to safety trade is on in a big way.  The XAU gained 8 7/8.  ABX up 2 7/8, GG and NEM  rose 3 1/8.  Volume was extremely heavy.  The gold shares are the place to be.  My order for ABX June calls was never filled and I have once again missed a major move.  I built a position in the May gold share calls when it should have been June.  But what can you do?  I may try the GG June calls because GG has lagged here and may play catch up.  Mentally I'm feeling pretty frustrated over missing out on the gold share calls.  Not to mention my read of the stock indexes here has been completely wrong.  I'm in a bad trading rut.  I am going to have to try and regroup over the weekend.  I'll be checking the charts and trying to come up with something for next week.  Money is moving into gold in a big way and that is now obvious.  Any pullbacks can be purchased.  The stock indices have broken down badly and we could be in the catch a falling knife phase.  Plenty to ponder in the next 2 days.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We bounced around today ahead of tomorrows employment report and finished the day with a loss of 26 points on the Dow.  The advance/declines were slightly negative and the volume was pretty good for a change.  Perhaps due to the end of the month but that's just a guess.  We were down 100 points early and made it all the way back to positive territory before falling once again.  The US economic data was weak and there was no new news out of Europe.  Anything can happen tomorrow and I certainly don't know what will occur.  However I'm still a believer that there will be higher prices coming soon.  There is way too much bearishness around.  GE was up a touch on average volume.  I'm still considering the July calls here.  Gold lost just a buck after coming back from its early lows.  The US dollar was a touch higher today.  The XAU fell 1 1/2.  ABX was flat while GG fell 1/2 and NEM dropped 2/3.  Volume looked to be average.  I'm still leaving in the open order for the June ABX calls.  The relative strength of ABX lately has been strong for the gold mining stocks.  I would like to do this trade but I am not going to press the issue.  If the price ABX declines to fill my option order, I'll take it.  If not I'll be looking elsewhere.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough.  So we'll get the jobs report, the market will react and then what?  We're still at the mercy of Greece, Spain and whatever else happens in Europe.  There is no easy solution there and no quick fix.  A tougher than usual trading environment.  Technically it looks like some of the stock indices are trying to put in a short term double bottom.  Time will tell on that.  We'll get through tomorrow and go from there.

European worries are back on center stage as the Dow fell 160 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative.  Headline risk remains the variable here for trading.  The economic data out today in the US was weak but everything seems to take a back seat to Europe.  Know the trading environment and act accordingly.  I am still of the belief that we are not on the verge of some type of major market collapse here.  I could be wrong and often am.  GE was off 1/3 on average volume.  I'll probably be getting some July calls here if we work our way back to around $18.50.  No rush to purchase at the moment.  Gold was higher on safe haven buying, with the futures up about $15.  The US dollar was up as well as it continues to set new highs not seen since 2010.  The XAU was off 1/3.  AB and GG had slight gains while NEM had a fractional loss.  Volume was a little less than average.  My open order for the ABX June calls wasn't filled and I'm leaving it out there.  I'm also still a believer in the gold shares for now due to the uncertain conditions around the globe.  But anything can and will happen.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The summation index has probably turned back down with todays market action.  We could just be forming a bottom in this this indicator and that is what I suspect is happening.  However we are at risk of some kind of event that hasn't been discounted yet.  Interesting times but we're only concerned with how to trade for profit.  There's nothing wrong with waiting things out on the sidelines as well.  Money needs a place to go and I think that gold will be supported here as a place to hide for now.  That's why I'm continuing to try and buy the June calls for ABX.  We'll see what happens.     

We began the shortened week with a rally as the Dow gained 125 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  With so much bearishness, some type of advance almost had to occur.  Getting short term overbought now for the stock indexes.  However todays action will turn the summation index back to the upside.  I'm still a believer in higher prices going forward but the problems in Europe are not just going to go away.  I'd be nimble here as we are still at the mercy of headline risk.  GDP and employment reports in a couple of days.  GE was up almost 1/4 on light volume.  I'm still looking at the July calls here on a pullback.  May or may not happen.  We are approaching a down trend line that has been in effect since the beginning of March and the 50 day moving average line.  Perhaps we'll stall here.  Gold took a hit today as the US dollar had some strength.  The precious metal lost over $20 on the futures.  The XAU only fell 2 1/8.  ABX off around a buck,  GG fell 1 1/3 and NEM dropped 2/3.  Volume was average.  I placed an order for some June ABX calls again and I'm leaving it in overnight.  I'm not exactly sure that this is the right trade but we did break the down trend line in ABX on good volume last week.  We should drop back towards that line and that is what I think is happening now.  Once that takes place we should resume the move to the upside.  Sounds good in theory but the reality of things doesn't always match up.  Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well.  We've begun the week with a light volume rally and those are the types of rallies that can never be trusted.  It's also possible that a lot of the players haven't returned to the game after the long holiday weekend.  So we'll see.  There is some data out this week that should move the stock indices but Europe and its problems will continue to be in the mix.  I'm maintaining a positive outlook for the stock indexes for now.  It looks like I'll be trying the gold shares again unless we get a complete breakdown in gold itself.  I don't anticipate that happening though.  We'll see what happens overseas tonight and take it from there.

We ended the week with a whimper as the Dow fell 75 points on extremely light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  Nobody is really going to commit any money to this market ahead of a long holiday weekend.  We have worked off the recent short term oversold condition but the price gains haven't been that much.  The longer this continues, the less bullish my opinion gets.  GE was off a touch on  the same very light volume.  I have no open orders here but will remain in the camp of looking at the July calls.  Gold was up $11 on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was up a touch today.  Thin markets all the way around.  The XAU gained 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume.  I canceled my open order for the June ABX calls and I'll try again next week.  Any pullback in the gold shares can be purchased in my opinion.  If ABX comes back to the trend line that it broke this week, that will be the time to buy the June calls.  May or may not happen.  Short term overbought on the gold shares here.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  The stock indices are in a wait and see mode as the problems in Greece continue to dominate trading decisions.  We'll get some important US economic data next week but it may not matter if something big happens in Europe.  It's a tougher than usual trading environment.  I'm still a believer that a crash is not coming anytime soon.  But perhaps sideways will be the trend and not the advance that I previously thought.  Time will tell.  I'll be checking the charts over the long weekend in hopes of coming up with some type of game plan for the coming week.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest. 

The Dow gained 33 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  We spent much of the day in negative territory but rose in the final hour.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  Still a lot of bears out there but believe it or not we are approaching short term overbought for the stock indexes.  The markets are being held hostage once again by the problems in Greece and the election there isn't for another 4 weeks.  I'm still a believer in higher prices short term but that could change.  Maybe we'll simply move sideways for a while.  It's a guessing game sometimes when the volatility expends.  GE was up 1/8 on average volume.  I'm still looking at the July calls here but will be looking for a better entry point.  Gold rose $10 on the futures today but was much higher as the US dollar gained a bit.  The XAU was up 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had slight fractional moves one way or the other on good volume.  I've left in an open order for some June ABX calls but we'll need to see some weakness in the stock to get filled.  The gold shares are acting extremely well here.  I think any weakness can be bought although the ideal time for purchases has passed.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I still think the stock indices will be moving to the upside here.  There are still too many bears.  One thing is certain though.  The troubles in Greece are not going to just go away.  Whatever happens with the election in June doesn't change the fact that Greece is bankrupt.  How and when the markets sort that out is probably the underlying theme for the markets recent movement.  I try and go by the technicals and they got blown out to the downside recently.  However we did not really see a stock market crash.  So I'm thinking we should start to move higher.  I could be wrong.  The gold shares have acted really well lately and still have plenty of room to move to the upside via the weekly charts.  I think that will be the next trade if I get the chance.  We'll simply get through tomorrow before a long holiday weekend and go from there.   

Quite a day in the markets as the Dow was down almost 200 points during the day but came back to only post a loss of 6 points.  The advance/declines were positive and the volume was good.  Plenty of short covering in front of a meeting tonight in Europe.  The problems in Europe are not going away despite what comes out of this meeting tonight.  However the stock indices got very overbought and in my opinion we are going to head higher.  There are too many bears and the opportunity for an actual crash has passed.  I could be wrong.  I did look at the technicals in the past when we have reached the oversold levels that we are seeing today.  The odds favor some type of rally here, not a collapse.  GE was flat on the day after being down 3/8.  I did put in an order for some July GE calls but it wasn't filled.  I am probably too late here at this point.  I wasn't quick enough with the order because by the time I finally decided to try it we already started moving off of the lows.  Gold fell $28 on the futures and was lower than that early on.  It started making a comeback in the aftermarket despite strength in the US dollar that took it over the 82 level.  However even with the weakness in gold, the gold shares were moving higher.  Last night I placed an overnight order for some June ABX calls but it wasn't filled.  I was once again too slow when I saw buying in the gold shares but weakness in gold.  I am still leaving in an order for the ABX calls but it once again is probably too late.  The XAU rose 6 points today.  ABX up 2, GG rose 2 1/3 and NEM higher by 1 1/3.  Volume was good.  ABX is breaking to the upside from a down trend line that has been in effect since the beginning of March.  If we get a pullback to the trend line, which is the next technical expectation, that will be the opportunity to get some calls.  It may or may not occur.  Getting overbought now on the gold shares but that may not matter.  Mentally I'm feeling tired.  Interesting times in the marketplace at the moment.  Volatility has picked up substantially.  There are opportunities now as I think the risk of moving much lower from these levels is nominal for the stock indices.  Unfortunately for me, I'm still kind of reeling from the last huge loss in the ABX call trade.  The mental capital is always the most important.  There's so many bears out there now that the market should move higher.  Gold made a nice comeback today and should now be moving higher as well.  We'll see how the markets react to whatever kind of statement that comes out of Europe tonight.  But don't be surprised if we get some type of rally tomorrow no matter what the news is.  

We were higher for most of the day but fell off in the final hour to basically finish the day unchanged.  The Dow fell a point and change on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  Worries from Europe were the excuse for the fall from the earlier highs.  We got the bounce and now we'll see what happens.  The ideal scenario would be for a lower low in the indices and a higher McClellan oscillator.  However ideal scenarios rarely pan out.  So I'm not sure exactly what to expect but I'm going to be looking at calls since it seems the whole investing world is bearish at the moment.  I could be wrong and often am.  GE was actually up a touch on better volume.  Looking out to the July calls here.  No trade is imminent here though.  In fact there's a chance that we remain sideways for an extended period here and in the stock indexes as well.  But nobody can predict the future.  Gold fell $12 on the futures and more in the aftermarket as the US dollar had a very good day.  That in itself may be more telling of things to come.  Money is still seeking a safe dollar haven.  The XAU dropped 1 2/3.  ABX shed 1/2, GG lost 3/8 and NEM fell 1/8.  Volume was good.  So the gold shares held up pretty well for a change despite the drop in gold.  That is usually bullish for this group going forward.  I'm looking at the June ABX calls again.  However if GLD decisively breaks the 150 level and stays there, then all gold share call trades are off.  There is a potentially huge head and shoulders bottom in the US dollar on a weekly basis chart.  If this pattern is triggered by the dollar breaking out above 82 on good volume, gold should drop even further.  Hasn't happened yet but it could.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well.  Tomorrow should be interesting in the stock indexes because if we are going to head lower again, it should start to happen now.  We got the long overdue bounce and the key is what happens next.  I can only guess at what happens next but with so many calling for a crash, I doubt that's going to be the outcome.  We'll see.  I'm feeling better about making some kind of trade here and that's good for the confidence level going forward.  I may just try the ABX calls again.  Or not.  We'll follow the overseas markets for clues to tomorrow and take it from there. 

Finally a bounce today as the Dow gained 135 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive.  No real news today but the oversold condition was so drastic and had lasted so long that this positive action was long overdue.  The question now is what's next?  There are so many bears out there that I would guess that we're going higher.  I think that the opportunity the market had to crash is gone.  A huge down move is still possible but I think that the odds for that have diminished.  I could be wrong.  We'll have to see if we get any follow through upside tomorrow.  There is a chance that this was simply the opposite of expiration Friday and the prevailing trend, which was lower, ensues.  That does happen at times.  But I think the bulk of this decline is over.  GE was up an 1/8 or so on light volume.  No trades there for now but I am looking at the July calls.  Gold lost a couple bucks despite the US dollar being lower.  The XAU followed the overall market higher by 4 2/3.  ABX up a buck, GG higher by 3/4 and NEM led the way with a gain of 1 3/4.  Volume was light.  It's usually a positive sign when NEM leads the gold shares higher.  I might try the June gold share calls if we go back and test the recent lows.  Hasn't happened yet.  Gold itself has so far been successful at holding the $1500 level.  We'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got a nice bounce today as there was no news out of Europe today to derail the rally.  The bounce is coming from extreme oversold levels.  I'd still be careful here but my gut feeling is that the bulk of the decline, if not all of it, is over.  Perhaps waiting for a positive divergence on the McClellan oscillator, if it happens, is the way to go.  We've just begun the June option cycle so premiums are high.  I've got a couple of ideas now for the next trade so we'll see what happens.