Friday, June 15, 2012
No worries about Greece today as the Dow gained 115 points on good volume. The decent volume was probably Friday expiration related. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. Summation index continues higher. The economic data reported today was weak in the US but it didn't matter. Perhaps the market is expecting the Fed to come up with QE3 next week. The stock indices are short term overbought and staying there. I don't think that there's any doubt now that the summer rally has begun. GE gained about 1/4 on good volume. I really should have been in the July GE call trade and I still think there is a chance to do it looking at the weekly charts. We are right up against the resistance line that has been in effect since the beginning of 2011. If we get some near term pullback The July 19 or 20 GE calls should be the next trade. There are 5 weeks in the July cycle and if we break out from resistance we'll get to 21 at the least. We'll see what happens. Gold was up $8 on the futures as the US dollar continued lower yet again. It seems like the flight to the US dollar has subsided for now. The XAU was up 3/8. ABX was up 1/2, while GG and NEM had fractional losses. Volume was very heavy in the gold shares today. Expiration related? I don't know. I'll probably try the gold shares on the call side again when the positive seasonality takes over in the middle of the summer. August and September are usually the strongest months for the price of gold. For now though I'll most likely be on the sidelines here. Mentally I'm feeling OK despite the recent losses in the ABX call trade. There's nothing that I can do about it now. The first half of the trading year has been terrible for me as far as confidence goes. If it wasn't for the huge gain to start the year, I'd be showing heavy capital losses. My trading win percentage is horrible. I've got to get my act together in the second half. I'm just going to have to focus better and work harder. The stock indexes appear to simply want to go higher here. The sellers have disappeared for now. So much has been said about this weekends Greek elections that it could turn out to be a non-event for the markets if the expected stay with the euro group wins. I'm starting to think that whatever happens with the Fed next week will actually be the big market moving event. We'll see. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.
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