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Friday, June 01, 2012

Well, I could not have been more wrong.  I felt that the level of bearishness was just too high and that stock prices would at least stabilize if not move higher.  I thought that the time had already passed for a market collapse.  That certainly isn't happening.  The Dow fell 275 points today after a weaker than expected jobs report.  The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative and volume was good.  Expect some follow through to the downside on Monday.  We might get a McClellan oscillator divergence by then but it may not mean anything.  Today did not have the climatic feel of a bottom but my take on things lately has been off anyway.  European problems weren't highlighted today and they haven't gone away.  I suppose the only plus for me here is that at least I'm not in any losing trades.  GE was off 1/2 on good volume.  I'm not so sure about the July calls here now.  I may go down a strike price but I will probably just sit things out for now.  Gold was the upside star of the day.  The futures gained almost $60 today.  The US dollar lost a bit of ground but not much considering the jobs number.  The flight to safety trade is on in a big way.  The XAU gained 8 7/8.  ABX up 2 7/8, GG and NEM  rose 3 1/8.  Volume was extremely heavy.  The gold shares are the place to be.  My order for ABX June calls was never filled and I have once again missed a major move.  I built a position in the May gold share calls when it should have been June.  But what can you do?  I may try the GG June calls because GG has lagged here and may play catch up.  Mentally I'm feeling pretty frustrated over missing out on the gold share calls.  Not to mention my read of the stock indexes here has been completely wrong.  I'm in a bad trading rut.  I am going to have to try and regroup over the weekend.  I'll be checking the charts and trying to come up with something for next week.  Money is moving into gold in a big way and that is now obvious.  Any pullbacks can be purchased.  The stock indices have broken down badly and we could be in the catch a falling knife phase.  Plenty to ponder in the next 2 days.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

1 comment:

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