Wednesday, June 13, 2012
We hung around for most of the day but then dropped in the final couple of hours as the Dow fell 77 points on light volume. A last minute comeback saved a loss of over 100. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. I'm not sure if we are consolidating the gains of last week or getting ready to head lower. The US economic data today was weak but it really wasn't a market mover. The Greek election is this weekend and I don't believe anybody seriously considers Greece is going to abandon the euro. We're in a wait and see mode for now as far as the stock indices are concerned. Still more short term overbought than oversold at this point. GE was off 1/8 on light volume. Short term overbought here as well. No trades there for now. Gold rose another $5 on the futures today as the US dollar dropped again. The XAU was flat after being higher for much of the day. ABX was flat as well. GG and NEM had fractional gains. Volume was average. My June ABX calls are just about dead and the relative strength of ABX here is abysmal. I think the next gold share trade for me will be with GDX. That is at least a basket of the gold shares with enough liquidity for decent option quotes. The extra risk of trading an individual gold share issue in this case wasn't worth it. It's something to ponder going forward. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The stock indexes are trying to make up their mind on which way to go here. You could make a case for either direction. 7 days left in the June option cycle. I think that we are going to move higher but that is just a guess. Gold has been acting well lately but it hasn't helped the gold shares. It would take a small miracle for me to have an acceptable loss in the June ABX call trade. Stranger things have happened. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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