Monday, June 18, 2012
A waiting game for now in my opinion as the Dow fell 25 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. The Greek vote is out of the way and there were no surprises. Greece remains in the euro for now. But anything can still happen. The next key market event will be the Fed announcement on Wednesday. Once we get through that I don't see much on the horizon. Perhaps this will be the summer of the doldrums finally. I've been looking for that the past 2 years and it hasn't happened. Technically the stock indices are still short term overbought. GE was off 1/4 on light volume. Overbought here as well. I'm still considering the July calls here but will have to see more of a pullback. Gold didn't do much today despite a higher US dollar. The XAU rose 3 points as the gold shares continue to outperform the metal itself. That is bullish for the gold shares going forward. ABX and NEM were both higher by more than 1/2 while GG was up 1/8. Volume was light. I'm looking at going out to October with the calls here, at least that is my thought for today. Subject to change of course. There is no rush for this trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Stocks are overbought, the summation index continues higher and the summer rally has begun. We could just simply grind our way higher here in the short term. There's always the surprise European headline factor but with all the hype that surrounded the Greek vote over and done with, I think things there will quiet down for now. It is all eyes on the Fed now as whatever comes out on Wednesday will be dissected and talked about to death. We will gauge the markets reaction to the announcement and go from there. 5 weeks on the July option cycle. Tuesday should be another non-event for the markets. There is also a G-20 summit but I don't expect anything concrete to come out of that blabber fest. We'll watch the overseas markets for clues about tomorrows market direction.
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