The Dow lost 31 points today on expiration heavy volume. Advance/declines were negative. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow. GEs earnings disappointed and the major banks took a hit. We are still moving higher though. We'll see how the earnings shape up for next week. Gold lost $5 on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 2 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses of at least 1/2 on light volume. The dollar bounced a bit today. I might try the November gold share calls on a pull back. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I didn't do anything stupid this week and that's a plus. The NASDAQ is much stronger than the Dow at the moment and that is usually a bullish sign. The next resistance for the S&P 500 is at the 1200 level. I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow lost a point today on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were down 70 points during the day but came all the way back. The economic data was mixed. We're still overbought. Thought about getting the OEX puts but the prices had moved too much. Will remain on the sidelines with regards to the OEX. Gold gained another $7 to another record high as the dollar was weaker today. The XAU lost 1 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on average volume. The US dollar is about to hit a key support level at 76. If we bounce from there, gold should come down from it's extreme overbought level. That may be an opportunity to try the gold shares again. However even with this recent spike in gold, the gold shares haven't had the proportional rise. Perhaps the GLD options would work better next time. We'll see. There's also the possibility that the 76 level won't hold on the US dollar. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Option expiration tomorrow and we move on to the November cycle.

The Dow continued higher today as it gained 75 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The market moves higher regardless of the overbought condition. Summation index moving higher. We were up 130 at one point but sold off a bit in the last hour. I did want to try the OEX puts but held off. With only 2 days to go a trade like this has to work fast. The trouble is it could turn into another loser just as fast. A lot of data in the next 2 days and option expiration. Usually that means some volatility but that hasn't been the case in recent months. We'll see. Gold also cannot be stopped as we moved to another record high. The precious metal was up over $22 on the futures. The XAU gained 5 1/2. ABX up 3/4. GG up 1 1/4 and NEM up 1 1/8. Volume was above average. Gold is so overbought here that a downdraft is imminent in my opinion. It cannot simply continue to go straight up. The US dollar fell today but not enough to justify a $20+ move in gold. But that is just my opinion, which means absolutely nothing. Purchasing some gold share October calls yesterday would have been profitable. But it's too late and risky now. If and when we get a pull back, that may be the time to give them a shot. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 2 days to go in the October options and I will have to try and keep myself from doing something stupid. The only good set-ups here are for the downside and that hasn't worked for weeks. I'll do my best to stay on the sidelines. GE announces earnings on Friday and I have taken a look at the options there. However the risk is above average there as well. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow gained 10 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. The Fed minutes came out. Nothing new there. We were lower, we were higher and ended up in the middle. Nothing really going on so far this week as far as market movement but that could change. 3 days until expiration. No OEX trades in the works. Gold lost $7 on the futures. The XAU fell 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM were flat to slightly negative on light volume. There is an outside chance that I'll try something with the ABX calls this week but it's extremely risky. The dollar lost just a touch. Probably the best course of action here would be inaction. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Not much going on as I've already stated. It's earnings season so that might cause some movement to individual issues. The overall market is still overbought. That won't last forever. On to tomorrow.

It was a quiet expiration Monday as the Dow gained 3 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. Not much to say about todays session. Banks were closed for Columbus Day. All the players should return tomorrow. Overbought here but I don't think I'll be attempting any trades. 4 days left for the October options. So we'll see what happens. Gold bounced back another $10, even with the dollar moving higher. The XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. I might try a trade here this week but we are very overbought and it has been for an extended period of time. However the money continues to flow into gold and that must be respected. I've stated this for quite some time now. Of course, I haven't made any money on the fact. The Fed minutes will be announced tomorrow and that could be a market mover. Otherwise there isn't much data until the end of the week. Mentally I'm doing OK, a bit tired. The smart thing for me to do here is let this week pass. The November options have an extra week on them. So we'll see.

The Dow rose 58 points today, climbing back above 11000. Volume was average and the advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The employment report was weaker than expected but it didn't matter. I dumped my OEX puts for around an 80% loss but it's worse than it sounds. Not a lot of money involved in that trade and within the guidelines that I set a month or so ago. But it's still another loser in the year of many. As usual the market goes where it wants. Don't fight the Fed was the moniker of market maven Marty Zweig. That seems to be the case for the recent positive market action. One week to go in the October option cycle and Monday is a bank holiday. My guess is that the powers that be will keep things propped up here for another week. Gold was up around $10, gaining back what it lost yesterday. The XAU was up 3 1/2. ABX rose 7/8, GG up 1/3 and NEM fell a touch. Volume was light to average. The dollar was off a bit today but not much considering the weak employment data. I really do not want to chase gold right now at these levels. Very overbought both long and short term. I will have to wait for at least some type of pull back before trying anything here. At least I should. There's always a chance that I'll do something stupid. Mentally I'm doing OK, a bit tired and need a good nights sleep. The weekend should take care of that. Not much else to say really. It's the beginning of October and we haven't seen any sustained downside since August. The seasonality pattern of the stock indices isn't working this year. I don't have any solid ideas at the moment. It would probably be best for me to stay on the sidelines next week but you never know. I do have an idea for some longer term GE calls but it may be too late for that after this weeks action in that issue. So it's another weekend to ponder the markets and try and come up with something profitable for the future. However it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It was basically a waiting game today as the Dow lost 19 points. Advance/declines were slightly negative and the volume was light. On to the employment report tomorrow and the market reaction to the numbers. Just about out of time for the OEX puts I own. Probably bail out at a loss tomorrow unless we get some negative action in the indices. We'll see what happens. Not really overbought or oversold at the moment so anything can happen. Gold finally had a down day as it lost $12. The XAU dropped 5 1/2. ABX fell around a buck, while GG and NEM fell around 1 1/2. Volume was good. The dollar didn't do much today. Perhaps today was the beginning of the long awaited correction in gold. The good volume turnaround that we saw might be a clue. We'll have to wait and see what occurs tomorrow. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. Tomorrow should be interesting, one way or the other. I think as long as the US dollar continues to weaken, the indices should be in an uptrend. Owning the puts here isn't really the thing to do. I should have dumped them on the big up move this past Tuesday. But it's been a year of mistakes and this trade is just another one.

The Dow closed up 23 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. I still have the OEX puts but they're dead. Should be dumped this week. The employment report is the next catalyst on Friday. We'll see what happens. Gold gained another $10 today and the XAU was up 4. ABX, GG and NEM all rose a buck or more on average volume. The US dollar went to fresh lows. I canceled the open order for the ABX calls. Way too late for the gold shares at this point I believe. Overbought and staying there and that won't last forever. There will be a time for the gold shares again. Perhaps when they return to the breakout area. Gold has been the place to be. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 7 days in the October option cycle. I think that the prudent thing to do here is to let the October cycle end and go from there. For now it's a waiting game for Friday.

The stock market exploded to the upside today as the Dow gained 193 points. Advance/declines were almost 5 to 1 positive and the volume was good. It looks like an upside breakout as we completely turned around from yesterdays negative price action. Needless to say this action dooms my OEX puts. They are now under water and I'll be dumping them shortly. There is no technical reason for todays breakout. There wasn't any economic news as the driving force. It is a currency rally as the dollar made fresh lows for this move down in the buck. The market does what it wants. Gold made it to new highs, up over $24. The XAU gained over 6 points. ABX was up 1 1/3, GG up 1 1/8 and NEM up around a buck. Volume increased moving higher here as well. I put in an open order for some ABX October calls. This is a risky move with just 8 days to go but we are in a runaway upside gold market. My thinking is that the powers that be will hold it up into the expiration. Actually gold should have been my focus after Bernanke said he would do whatever it takes to keep rates low and the economy going. It's always easy to look back and determine what should have been done. It's a lot harder to live with your mistakes. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I get the feeling after today that it doesn't matter what the employment report says. The market will simply move higher. We would have to have a complete reversal in the next 2 days to negate that. I don't see that happening.

Monday started the week with a loss of 78 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. My OEX puts are back in the black but not by much. This is a trade that needs to be exited this week. Before Fridays employment report would most likely be the smart thing to do. It looks like the market wants to roll over here but the summation index is still moving sideways. So we'll see. The daily charts could also break down here but it hasn't happened yet. However if we follow through to the downside tomorrow, it could get interesting. Gold was off a buck today as the dollar had a bit of strength. Perhaps the dollar got some interest with the heightened overseas terror alert. The XAU fell 3 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all dropped around a buck on light volume. The daily charts here look like things are heading lower. I'm not looking at the gold share calls for October at the moment. The metal continues to outperform the gold shares. Eventually this relationship will change and when it does that will be the time for the gold share calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 9 days to go in the October option cycle. I feel as though I need to get out of this OEX trade before the employment report on Friday. That is what my work is telling me. However we might just go lower into that report. That's a guess. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

The Dow rose 41 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. We opened higher and moved sideways for the rest of the day. My OEX puts are a touch in the red. We have been range bound for the week and I expect we will break out one way or the other soon. It has the feel of wanting to move higher. Beginning of the month money flows perhaps. I will probably have to dump these puts if we get any weakness early next week. Gold continues to set records as it gained another $8. The XAU rose 3 1/3. ABX up 3/4, GG gained 1/4 and NEM was higher by 7/8. Volume was about average. The dollar was weaker on the day once again. Perhaps the ABX call trade was really the way to go. The trends with gold higher and the dollar lower continue to persist. Very overbought on gold and very oversold on the dollar. That won't last forever but it remains to be seen when it will change. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 2 weeks to go in the October option cycle. Summation index starting to move up once again. That won't help the OEX puts. Perhaps it's just another mistake in the year of many. We'll find out early next week I'm sure. But now it's the weekend and time for a rest.

The Dow closed the month with a drop of 47 points. Volume picked up today. The advance/declines were about even. We opened higher and closed lower. I ended up getting some OEX puts in the morning when the market was positive. They are in the black. I'm not sure this trade will work but we are overbought and as I said yesterday the daily chart pattern looks like the August top. We also had a small move in the McClellan oscillator that implied short term weakness. I don't know how long that I will hold this position but it may not be too long. Tomorrow will tell a lot. Gold sold off early today but came back to finish unchanged. The XAU lost 2 points. ABX lost 2/3, GG off 1/2 and NEM led the way, off a buck. Volume picked up here as well. The dollar sold off early but then came back a bit. I canceled the ABX call trade for now. I wanted to focus my attention on the OEX. I may try the gold shares again later before the expiration. Still very overbought here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. There are some longer term indicators that imply there will be some weakness going forward. We'll see if they are accurate. Beginning of the month tomorrow and that usually means positive money flows for the market. The OEX trade is on.

The Dow lost 23 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. Moving basically sideways for the past 3 days. End of the month and some economic data tomorrow. I would like to try the OEX puts again but there is no decent signal yet. However the daily pattern is similar to what the market did before the August decline. In August it felt like we were going to move to the upside out of the sideways pattern but we dropped. So we'll see. Gold was up a couple bucks as the dollar was a bit weaker. The XAU dropped 1/3. ABX up 1/4, GG was flat and NEM fell 1/3. Volume was light. I'm leaving in the open order for the ABX October calls. This may not be the right move but I'll leave it in for another day. Gold itself is still very overbought. Conditions like this cannot last forever. So we'll see what happens. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired today. Did not sleep enough. We'll wrap up September tomorrow and go from there. Seasonally, this is usually one of the weakest periods for the stock indices. It hasn't been that way this year. Perhaps the market is simply much stronger than I realize at this juncture.

We opened lower and closed higher as the Dow gained 46 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. I have thoughts of trying the OEX puts again but the market seems like it just wants to go higher. There also appears to be a lot of bulls coming out of the woodwork. If we break 1150 on the S&P 500 then we should move higher. I'm on the sidelines for now. Gold set yet another new high as the dollar continues to drop. It was up $10 on the futures. The XAU gained 3 3/4. ABX up a buck, GG gained 1/2 and NEM rose 1 1/2. Volume was good. Money just continues to flow into this sector. I placed an open order for some ABX October calls. However most likely today was the day to purchase them. Still overbought but it just doesn't correct. We'll see what happens. Perhaps today was just an end of the month window dressing for the gold shares. It's tough to chase things sometimes. As I remember, it didn't work the last time I tried it. Mentally I'm kind of in a funk. I really don't have a good handle on things here. No reason really. The stock indices are in an uptrend and gold is too. But these trends don't last forever.

It was a slow day today as the Dow lost 48 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. We opened lower, made it back to positive territory and went back down into the close. I have no OEX trades in mind at the moment. We're overbought but that hasn't meant much lately. End of the month on Thursday. We'll get the most economic data on the last couple of days of the week. Gold was flat on the day. The XAU lost 1 1/2. The dollar didn't do much either. ABX fell 1/2, GG off 1/4 and NEM shed 3/4. Volume was light. I still might try the gold share calls if we move to oversold this week on a daily basis. But that remains to be seen. So it's a wait and see game here as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. There isn't much for me to say here. We broke out on the S&P 500 when we crossed 1130. Unless we are forming a bull trap, the trend is up and we are going higher. The gold market continues in an uptrend. Volume continues light. We'll see what happens Tuesday.

The Dow staged an explosive rally today as it gained 198 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. I don't know where it came from but I'm sure some short covering was involved. I got stopped out of the OEX put trade for another 40% loss. This trade looked great yesterday but that all changed today. The summation index has turned back to the upside today. The weekly charts don't look bearish anymore. I'm not sure where the next trade is for me with regards to the OEX. Gold was up only a couple of bucks, which wasn't much considering the US dollar got clobbered again. The XAU gained 2/3. ABX was off 1/3, GG was flat and NEM dropped about 1/2. Volume was light. The gold shares and gold itself are very overbought. They have been for a while. Perhaps I'll try a trade there but I certainly don't have a good idea. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Well it looks like my overall strategy of a drop in the market in the autumn didn't work. Unfortunately none of my ideas this year have worked that well, if at all. It's been a memorable year to forget so far. So where do we go from here? It looks like the rally that started in the beginning of September has legs. Unless we get a complete market reversal, the trend is up. There's 3 weeks to go on the October options. I don't see any trades for me at the moment but I'll check the charts over the weekend. It's the first weekend of fall. Time for a break.

The Dow lost 77 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. We sold off early, came all the way back and then fell again. The summation index should be rolling over today but that doesn't mean we are going to collapse. My OEX puts are now slightly in the black. We'll be oversold by Monday so I will have to think about exactly what to do here. No news to speak of really. So perhaps the technicals are going to work here. Gold was up $4 on the futures, however the dollar gained some ground today. The XAU lost 1 1/2. ABX and GG fell 1/2, while NEM lost a buck. Volume was average. I still may try the gold share calls here again but they are very overbought. So we'll see. However if the market drops, the gold shares will go with them. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well. So perhaps the OEX put trade will work but it's still early. Tomorrow will tell a lot. The weekly charts for the indices now are looking bearish. That, combined with a declining summation index could make the put trade profitable. Time will tell.

The Dow dropped 21 points today in what I would describe as listless trading. Volume was average. The advance/declines were negative. Once again the overall market was weaker than the Dow. My OEX puts didn't do much and are still in the red. The postings on the summation index are getting closer and perhaps will turn this indicator down. It has yet to happen though. A bit of economic data out tomorrow so we'll have to see what happens. Gold continues to be the story and we hit new highs again today as the dollar continued to weaken. The gold futures were up $17. The XAU gained 2 1/3. ABX up 3/8, GG up 1/8 and NEM up 3/4. Volume was good, confirming the moves higher. We are overbought here but the gold market doesn't care. I might just have to try the ABX calls again for the October option cycle. I suppose that I'm still regretting getting stopped out on that last trade. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept better. We'll have to see how this OEX put trade works out in the coming 2 days before the weekend. We're still a bit overbought but we could just be working off that condition. I'll really need to see some solid downside to tell if this trade has a chance. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

It was an up and down session with the Dow ending with a slight gain of 7 points. Volume was average. The advance/declines were negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The Fed made its announcement and we gyrated after that. We were down 40 and up 70. Still very overbought here short and medium term. My OEX puts almost got stopped out at the highs for the day but somehow were not. They are still in the red. We'll see if they last tomorrow. On to gold, which sold off early in the day and then roared back after the Fed announcement as the dollar plummeted. The futures closed off $6 but then gained all that back and another $7 in the aftermarket. The XAU sold off and came back as well, up 1 1/4. The gold shares sold off early and I was stopped out of the ABX call trade for a loss of 40%. ABX then turned around and the same position would now be up 20%. That is the downside of having the stop loss order. Sometimes you lose the position and it would of worked. But I have to limit my losses. ABX was up 1/3, GG up 1/2 and NEM up 7/8. Volume expanded to the upside. Gold is the place to be at the moment as it is attracting new funds. It has been the place to be for a while. If the dollar continues to break down here, gold will flourish. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well or enough. I'm disappointed in the gold trade loss but it's been that type of year. Perhaps this OEX trade will work but it could be stopped out tomorrow on market strength. We'll see. Now that the Fed is out of the way, we'll see what happen overseas tonight and go from there.

The Dow broke out to the upside today, gaining 145 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. Summation index heading higher. My open order for the OEX puts was filled but this trade is not going to work if this breakout is valid and it appears to be. The stop loss order is in place and should be hit tomorrow. When everyone is looking for a decline, it won't happen. That seems to be the case here. It's just another losing trade for the year. Fed announcement tomorrow and that will probably propel us even higher. Gold was up $3 today and the dollar was a touch weaker. The XAU was up 2 2/3. ABX gained 1/2, GG up a buck and NEM gained 1/4. Volume was light. My ABX calls are slightly in the red. They did turn positive during the day but the gold shares sold off with the rally. It doesn't look like this trade will work either but we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Could have slept better. So it looks like the market wants to head higher and all indications are that it will. My trades will most likely be stopped out. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

We closed the week with a slight gain of 13 points on the Dow. We opened higher on the day and then just drifted. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was better than it has been. That could be expiration related. We're still overbought here. Summation index continues higher. Nothing has really changed. We either break out on good volume to the upside next week or we begin a decline. I still have the open order in for the October OEX puts. I'll go over things this weekend and re-evaluate this idea. Gold was up a couple of bucks today but the XAU fell 1 1/8. ABX, GG and NEM moved fractionally one way or the other on what goes for average volume these days. My ABX October calls are still in the red. Perhaps I'll have to dump them on Monday if I'm looking for downside in the overall market. However if we break out to the upside, then this trade will probably work. More things to ponder over the weekend. The dollar was up a touch today but had a bearish week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I think that next week will be the key to where the stock indices are heading. We are at the resistance on the S&P 500 once again. If we break through there could be what's called a stock melt up. Money will pile in. In the opposite scenario if we fail to get above the resistance, sellers will reappear and down we will go. I'm still in the latter camp but I realize that the market will go where it wants. I'm going to have to make up my mind this weekend and go from there. Seasonality favors a decline here. So we'll have to wait and see. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The Dow gained 22 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were lower for most of the day and got back into positive territory in the last 2 hours. Still overbought here and I would expect some weakness near term. I just don't know how long that will last if it does occur. I adjusted down the price for the OEX October puts that I have an open order for. Summation index remains to the upside, implying higher prices for the indices. Option expiration tomorrow. Gold was up $5 today and the XAU rose 2 1/2. ABX up 7/8, GG up 1/4, while NEM was flat. Volume was average. My ABX calls are still in the red. I'm thinking that now this may just be a trade to get out of, since my timing wasn't correct on the entry. We'll see. Still 4 weeks to go and gold has broken out to new highs. The dollar lost a bit of ground today and gold reacted as expected for a change. Mentally I'm doing OK. So we'll see what kind of expiration Friday we get. Could be another non event as it has been lately. We still haven't gotten through the resistance at 1130 on the S&P 500 but we are close. If and when that happens the OEX put trade will have to be canceled. However the volume really needs to pick up. It has been light for months and summer is over. We'll see how we close out the week and go from there.

Overbought and staying there as the Dow gained 46 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We are both short and medium term overbought now. I do expect lower prices in the near future. That doesn't mean things won't hold up here for expiration, they could. I'm leaving in the OEX October puts order. We still have yet to break the resistance at 1130 on the S&P 500. Let me say something about the volume here. Average volume lately would normally be considered light. Light volume is now considered very light. There just aren't as many participants as there used to be. That will change but I don't know when. Gold was off a couple of bucks after yesterdays record run. The XAU fell 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all moved fractionally on average volume. I would have liked to have seen some follow through on gold and the gold shares but it didn't happen. My ABX calls are in the red. If the market does drop here, the gold shares will probably go with it initially. So this trade at the moment looks like another loser. I may just bail out of it before the weekend if I don't see some upside in the next 2 days. The dollar bounced a bit today and that didn't help the precious metal. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept longer. It is also possible that tomorrow brings a very positive day as some of my work indicates that there could be an upside breakout to the trading range. But it would have to be a huge volume day and with the current overbought status, I don't think it will happen. But I've been wrong for much of the year already. If we do open strong I'll have to cancel the OEX put trade. So we'll see.

It was an up and down session as the Dow finished off by 17 points. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was average. We are at the overhead resistance. I think this is a major inflection point for the stock indices. We are either going to break out to the upside on increased volume and continue the rally or we will fail here and begin another decline. I'm leaving in the open order for the OEX puts. We are overbought here but sometimes we stay there. Gold had a breakout to new highs on increased volume. The XAU rose 5 points but was higher early. ABX up 1, GG rose 1 1/2 and NEM up 2 3/8. These issues were also higher and sold off late. Volume was above average. I bought some ABX October calls on the breakout. I was going to wait for the Gold/XAU buy signal but it's possible that the parameters for that have now changed. Time will tell. I did not like how the gold shares ended the day by selling off. I would have liked to have seen these issues end the day near their highs. So perhaps this is another mistake. However the breakout of gold occurred on increased volume and that is a positive sign. The dollar also fell again today and gold paid attention. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The trade that I put on here is already off 10%. I have the stop loss order placed. So we'll see what happens. I still think the overall market is headed lower but gold would be looked at as a safe haven again. Or perhaps that's just wishful thinking. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow continues higher, up another 81 points today. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive and the volume was average. Summation index continues higher. We are approaching short term overbought here. I expect this week to be positive with the expiration of the September option contracts. That said, I did place an order for some October OEX puts. We are just about at the resistance of 1130 on the S&P 500. It will take an expansion of volume getting through that level to change my mind. That could happen. Gold was flat on the day despite the US dollar getting clobbered. Another divergence between gold and the dollar. ABX dropped 1/2, NEM lost 1/4, while GG was flat. Volume here was very light. The Gold/XAU ratio is nowhere near a buy signal. I'll be on the sidelines here until this indicator provides a buy signal and we are oversold. Mentally I'm doing OK. The stock indices rallied today with the drop in the US dollar. Could this be a sign of things to come? I certainly don't know. However I am sticking with my negative market outlook going forward until proven otherwise. We are still in a trading range and approaching the top of that range. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

It was just another lackluster day in the markets as the Dow gained 47 points on light volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. It's just more of the same here as we are grinding higher approaching the 200 day moving average line on the S&P 500. Volatility is low and that will change eventually. The question is, when? Option expiration week coming up and we'll see if it has its usual positive bias. No OEX trades at the moment but I'm probably going to try some October OEX puts if we stall again at around 1130 basis S&P 500. Gold was off almost $5 on the futures, while the XAU gained 1 3/4. ABX and NEM were up around 1/2. GG was flat. Volume extremely low here. The dollar closed about unchanged today. The weekly charts on the gold shares have stalled. The metal itself continues to act better. I don't know what it means going forward but you'd rather see them move in tandem. I'm still leaning towards the October ABX calls. No trades for now though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Hard for me to figure out just where we are going from here. The lack of participation isn't a good sign in my opinion. However we could see some type of short squeeze if we get above 1110 on the S&P 500. That seems to be the short term resistance for now. The summation index continues higher and that still implies that the trend is up. I'm going to stay on the sidelines for now and watch where we go in the beginning of next week. But now the weekend is here and it's time for a break.

The Dow rose 28 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were higher than that early on. Not much to say here really. Sideways for now. Summation index still moving higher. Option expiration next week. Gold dropped $6 today and fell further in the aftermarket. The XAU shed 3 1/3. ABX down 1 1/4, GG down 2/3 and NEM down 1 1/3. Volume light as usual. The dollar didn't do much today. No trades in mind for the gold shares at the moment. I will keep an eye on the October calls though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. There isn't much going on for all I can tell here. The markets are lightly traded and stuck in a trading range as I have stated before. Sooner or later, that will change. I'm trying to remain patient at this time. It isn't always easy. However as the time passes, perhaps my confidence will return and that would be a plus. Sidelines for now.

The Dow gained 46 points today on again quite light volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. Not much data except the Fed book. Obama had a speech for the public. Usually when Obama talks the market goes down, so maybe this is a positive going forward. The extremely light volume is worrisome to me because it will take volume to move this thing higher. So we'll see. I am looking at the October OEX puts now. However it seems as though most market pundits are calling for a swoon here. The market never accommodates the majority. Gold was off a bit today and the XAU fell 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on lght volume. I'll continue to wait here on the next gold share trade. The dollar was weaker today but that did not help the precious metal. No volume here either. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. So it's a waiting game for me here. Only 2 days left this week and then September option expiration week. No trades in sight at the moment. That could change as we progress going forward. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We began the shortened week on an inauspicious note as the Dow lost 107 points on very light volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative. Rumblings of trouble again in the European credit markets were the excuse for the drop in prices today. We'll have to wait and see if there is any follow through tomorrow. We were approaching short term overbought and todays activity relieves some of that condition. Gold had a good day, up $5 as it backed off from setting a new all time high. The XAU managed to gain 1/2. The gold shares were mixed, with ABX up 1/2, NEM up 1 1/4 and GG down 1/2. Volume was light to average. The dollar had a good day and yet gold managed to rally. Gold it about at new highs but the gold share indices are nowhere near their old highs. We'll see what this means going forward. I'm getting long the gold shares on the next Gold/XAU buy signal. We are not close to a signal at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling better after the long holiday weekend. I'm making some trading tactic adjustments, to help prevent the kind of poorly managed trade that I just experienced. I'm also cutting down my amounts to trade until I can regain some sort of level of confidence. We're still in a trading range for the major stock indices. The S&P 500 has a potential head and shoulders bottom in place. For this pattern to be valid, we would have to break through 1135 on good volume. I'm not sold on that. I still feel that we will be heading lower and taking out 1040 on the S&P. I may try the October puts in the future.

The Dow continued higher as we closed the week with a gain of 127 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. Summation index moving higher. I dumped the OEX puts for an 80% loss. The employment report was weak but not as weak as expected. That was a horrible trade. It had no stop loss provision which was my own fault. I also had a gut feeling when it was filled that it wasn't the right trade to put on at the time. But I didn't listen to my gut and I paid the price. There are no excuses though. You've got to live with the losses and with the gains. It's been a bad year so far. I doubt that I'll be able to recover to break even. Gold lost a couple of bucks and the XAU gained 3/8 after selling off early. ABX was flat, GG lost a buck and NEM fell 2/3. Volume was light. These issues also were lower earlier in the session. I'm tempted to get some ABX calls here because the daily chart looks like it wants to turn back to the upside. But there is no buy sign from the Gold/XAU ratio. Not to mention that my confidence is shot once again. The dollar was weaker today but gold didn't manage a rally either. Mentally I'm feeling down after another loss. It could have been mitigated with the proper tactics. It wasn't and there is no one to blame but myself. Not the way that I'd like to start a long holiday weekend. It's basically back to the drawing board. The market found support and is now going to challenge the overhead resistance. Perhaps we are still in a trading range. I'll have to check things out over the next few days. For now it's Friday afternoon at the end of summer. Time for a break.

The Dow tacked on another 50 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The summation index has now turned positive. It was quite impressive actually, considering yesterdays huge gain. The trend is up. My OEX puts are dead and all that's left for this trade is calculating the loss. Employment numbers tomorrow and the only hope is that they are weaker than anticipated. You can't trade on hope though. The sellers have disappeared. Just another mistake in the many of this year. Gold was up $5 and the XAU gained 2 1/8. ABX and GG were basically flat, while NEM gained 1 1/4. Volume was light. The dollar didn't do much today. Gold still looks like it could break out to a new high. But the big cap gold shares are nowhere near their old highs. Mentally I'm feeling OK. All eyes wait for tomorrows numbers. It's also a Friday before a long holiday weekend. The volume could be lighter than usual. But volume has been light for quite a while. So we'll see how it goes tomorrow and take it from there. I don't expect this OEX trade to be saved, even with a weaker number than expected.

We broke out to the upside today as the Dow gained 255 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The down trend line in effect since the beginning of August was broken to the upside. My order for the OEX puts was filled and it's a loser. I'll give it until the employment report on Friday but the tide has turned. We may revisit the downtrend line that was just violated and that would give me a chance to get out and cut the loss. Timing is everything and there was a chance that we'd see something like today as I mentioned yesterday. But the song remains the same for me this year. And it hasn't been a good one. Gold lost a couple of bucks even with a weaker dollar. The XAU fell 7/8. ABX fell 1 3/8, GG off 3/4 and NEM dropped a buck. Volume picked up to the downside. The daily charts here have turned bearish. I canceled the open order for the ABX September calls. Perhaps I'll try the October calls when we get another buy signal on the Gold/XAU ratio. But for now I'll have to concern myself with the OEX trade. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, could have slept better. So it's another mistake for now with regards to the OEX trade. Could things turn around and make this trade a winner? Perhaps but not off of todays market action. I'll let tomorrow pass and wait for Friday. Unless we get another upside breakout. We are perched at the 50 day moving average on the S&P 500 daily chart. A break through there and this trade will be done.

It was an up and down session with the Dow ending with a gain of 5 points on better volume. Advance/declines were positive. We are oversold both short and medium term. I'm leaving in the open order for the OEX puts but it could be a mistake. The S&P 500 has drawn a line in the sand at 1040. If that breaks, we will be heading lower for sure. Beginning of the month tomorrow and it's possible we could see some inflows of cash. We'll see. Gold was up $10 today and we are on the cusp of breaking out to new highs there. The XAU gained 2 1/4. ABX up 3/8, GG up 1/2 and NEM led the way higher, up 1 3/8. Volume was better than it has been. End of the month purchases? Money continues to find a home here. I placed an order for some ABX September calls. If we do break out in gold, the gold shares should follow. We are overbought and staying there. I'm not exactly sure this is the right trade to try because there isn't a buy signal from the Gold/XAU ratio. However the price is far enough away that it could be triggered if we get there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The overall stock market has been in a funk for a few weeks now. There is a chance we are putting in a bottom here and will head higher in the beginning of September. I'm sticking with the OEX puts though. The summation index continues lower but that could change with a very positive day. It could all hinge on Fridays employment report. Time will tell. I'll stick with the open order trades that I have in for now and adjust things as necessary.

The Dow gave back what it gained on Friday. The loss was 141 points on very light volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. I placed an order for some OEX puts overnight and it was not filled. I adjusted the strike price down and replaced the original order. In downtrends, sometimes rallies appear from nowhere, as was the case on Friday. However the downtrend soon reasserts itself. That seems to be the case today. Volume was very weak though. Summation index still heading lower. Gold was flat today but the XAU lost 1 1/4 points. ABX and NEM were little changed, while GG lost a bit over 1/2. Volume wasn't much here either. The gold shares continue to show amazing relative strength. I think that the next Gold/XAU ratio buy signal that is generated will be my cue for the gold share calls. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated. I cannot seem to get filled on the OEX put order. Perhaps I'm just trying to be a bit too cute. Sometimes you just have to buy it and take your chances. I'll need to get something done before the employment report on Friday. End of the month tomorrow and that could bring even more selling. Lots of data out this week, so there will be reasons for price movement. The trend is down and remains so until further notice.

Today we got a bounce as the Dow gained 165 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive. The GDP number wasn't as bad as feared by some. Plus there was some Bernanke babble that was viewed as positive. Have we put in a trading bottom here? Perhaps. The mood is quite bearish. I canceled my open order for the OEX puts. No need to hold it over the weekend. I do believe that we are going to head lower. I'll ponder my next move over the weekend. Gold ended the session basically flat, while the XAU gained 3 3/4. ABX up 1/3, GG gained a buck and NEM rose 1/2. Volume picked up as well. Plenty of interest in the gold shares. I still may try the calls here but I also canceled the open order here. No need to have anything out there over the weekend. The weekly charts still look bullish for the gold shares. I may try something next week. The daily charts are overbought though. Again, things to think about over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'll need to go over the charts this weekend and be ready with a game plan for next week. 3 weeks in the September cycle and one less day due to Labor Day. Another week until the major players return from summer vacation. It's the last weekend in August. Time for a rest.

The Dow lost 74 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. GDP revision tomorrow. There just are not a lot of buyers and I have yet to see a short covering rally. Summation index continues lower. I still have in an open order in for some OEX September puts but it doesn't look like it will be filled anytime soon. I'm a bit frustrated about not catching this down move but I believe that if I remain patient there will be a chance to do so before the September expiration. Gold lost $3 today but the XAU rose 3 points. ABX up 1, GG up 1 1/3 and NEM up 3/4. Again, the September gold share calls are something that I should already be in. ABX is poised to break above $47 soon. Volume is picking up to the upside. I think there is a chance that when everyone returns in a week or so that they will pile into the precious metal as a safe haven play. I'm leaving in the order for the ABX September calls. Mentally I'm trying to remain positive despite missing these moves. It isn't easy. I'm still convinced that we are going lower in the OEX for the September option cycle. Sooner or later there should be a decent snap back rally and that would provide the opportunity that I'm waiting for. It hasn't happened so far. As for the gold shares, the Gold/XAU ratio is out of the buy zone. The next time it gets there I'll be purchasing some gold share calls. It may be too late though. On to Friday.

We opened lower and closed higher as the Dow gained 20 points. Advance/declines were positive. Volume was average. We're still oversold. I placed an open order for some OEX puts. I'll adjust it as necessary. I really don't expect much of a bounce here. I could be wrong. Fed speak tomorrow and the GDP revision on Friday. So we'll see. Gold was up $8 today and the XAU gained 4 1/4. ABX and GG rose 1 1/3. NEM tacked on 1 2/3. Volume was average. I also placed an open order in for some September ABX calls. It may be too late. The dollar didn't do much today. Money continues to flow into the precious metal. It should move with the GDP revision. I'll adjust this order going forward as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So I have a couple of orders in and we'll see where things go. I still feel that we will be heading lower in the indices. But I need to see some upside to get short. The OEX put open order is priced away from the market. I also adjusted the strike price. Summation index continues lower. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Down is the direction as the Dow lost 134 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. What else can I say? We are headed lower. I will try and get short on any snap back rally. No interest in owning stocks at the moment. The housing data was awful and we already knew that. GDP data on Friday and that will look bad most likely as well. Oversold, staying there and that isn't changing. We'll see how it goes. Gold was up $5 but the XAU fell 2 2/3. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on average volume. The Gold/XAU ratio is back in the buy zone. Perhaps I'll take a look at the September calls again. Maybe check Octobers while I'm at it. The dollar dropped a touch today. Gold is holding up rather well here. But it is summer, so things may not be as they appear. September is historically a good month for the precious metal though. But if the overall market tanks it will take everything with it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Still trying to wait for some type of bounce. I'm sure that I'm not the only one. Perhaps a bounce will never come. There is no doubt that we are going lower, the only question is how far?

Another day, another downer as the Dow lost 39 points on very light volume. We opened higher and closed lower which isn't a bullish sign. Advance/declines were negative. Summation index heading lower. Oversold and staying there. It is like a broken record. Real estate data out tomorrow and it can't possibly be good. I'd still like to get the OEX September puts but I have to see some type of bounce. The light volume is a problem as well as I've mentioned before. So we'll see. Gold lost a buck today and the XAU fell 2 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM all had around 1/2 point or more losses on extremely light volume. The dollar was up a touch. Gold futures expire this week and that could skew things short term. Almost back to a buy signal on the Gold/XAU ratio. I don't think I'll be getting any gold share calls but you never know. We are working off the overbought conditions there. Mentally I'm doing OK. It's the end of the summer so the major market players are still on vacation. That makes it tough to step up to the plate here as well. The continued oversold nature of the stock indices could turn into a real problem if we don't see any upside soon. We are overdue for some type of positive move. I'll keep an eye on things and see how it goes for now.

We ended the week on a down note as the Dow lost 57 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. The weekly charts are looking bearish for the stock indices. That said, the daily charts show a potential bullish head and shoulders pattern here. The summation index is heading lower though. We are oversold as well. So there are some crosscurrents. I still want to get some September OEX puts. The summer light volume is hard to figure because we've had some volatility but no volume. So we'll see. Gold lost $6 today and the XAU 1 1/8. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional losses on light volume. The XAU sold off early and made somewhat of a comeback. The dollar had a good day so the inverse relationship to the precious metal is working again. We're still overbought on the gold shares. Perhaps I'll try the calls here but I'll have to ponder things over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It's getting near the end of August and things should begin to pick up with regards to volume within a couple of weeks. Some data out next week with home sales early in the week and a GDP revision late in the week. I can't expect the home sales numbers to be strong but it may already be in the price of the market. I'll check the charts over the weekend and take it from there. It's a warm Friday afternoon in the summer. Time for a break.

Back to the downside as the Dow lost 144 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative. Volume was average. The economic data was weak today and gave the market a reason to sell off. Todays action should send the summation index lower again. We are oversold still and the bounce we had was anemic. Perhaps things are even weaker than I thought. I canceled my open order for the September OEX puts. My price would not be filled. I'm still a believer in that idea though and will be putting in another order soon. Gold was up $4 today but the XAU fell 1 1/2. ABX and GG were down 3/8, while NEM dropped a buck. Volume was light as it has been. The dollar had a bit of strength. Gold is overbought but it has seen some interest since the beginning of the month. The September calls still might be in play for me if we get oversold in the next week or so. But it's probably too late. Weak volume on the rise also. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. The stock index charts need to hold up here or we will be heading lower. Perhaps yesterday was the last chance to get the September puts at a decent price. Time will tell. Todays market reaction to the data wasn't bullish. Often times it's not the data itself but what the market does afterward that tells the story. I suppose I'll keep looking at the September OEX puts for a buy point.

We opened lower, climbed back to be higher and then closed about unchanged as the Dow gained 9 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. Still more oversold than overbought but the market has a listless tone to it. I still have an open order in for the September OEX puts. I adjusted the price down a touch in case we get a breakout above 1100 on the S&P 500. But it could be that we've seen whatever bounce there is and go lower from here. I don't know. The volume has been so light this summer that it's really hard to say exactly what is going on. Gold was up 3 bucks today and the gold shares continue to shine. The XAU rose 3 1/2. ABX and NEM were higher by around a buck, while GG led the way up 1 3/4. Volume was better than it has been but still very weak. The dollar didn't do much today. Are we headed for a new high in gold? Overbought and staying there for now. Money is heading into the gold shares for whatever reason. Another missed opportunity. Mentally I'm doing OK. August is a little over halfway through. The plan for now remains to purchase some September OEX puts. We do have to get through the next 2 weeks of summer slowdown though. I expect things will not return to what is considered normal until after Labor day. Perhaps waiting until then for the next trade is the proper strategy. We'll see.

We got a bounce today as the Dow gained 103 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. We were up around 175 at one juncture during the day. So I was a day early on the OEX calls and it cost me. That's the nature of the game when there isn't a lot of time left on the options. As usual, timing is everything. The market action wasn't too positive towards the close. I do now have an open order in for some September OEX puts. Not sure when and if it will be filled. There is the summer slow volume problem to deal with. We'll see. Gold was up a couple of bucks today and the XAU gained 2 3/8. ABX and NEM both gained 2/3. GG was up 3/8. Volume light again. We are overbought on the gold shares but the charts are heading higher. I'm not sure about making a trade here but you never know. We are in the seasonal strong period for gold. The Gold/XAU ratio signal is off for now. The dollar fell a bit today. It's possible that the recent strength in gold is due to the market selling off or the potential for the market to sell off in the future. That's a guess as usual. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep enough. So we will have to see if there is any follow through to the upside tomorrow. Some data out on Thursday but that is about it. 3 days left in the August option cycle. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

It was a light volume Monday as the Dow lost a point. The advance/declines were positive. The market gapped down at the open and hit my stop loss order. So it was a 50% loss in a matter of 15 market minutes. That can happen. Not a lot of money involved but a loss none the less. I still expect upside and soon. Oversold both short and medium term. I'll now simply focus on the September OEX puts. However the slowness of the summer could be a problem. Gold continues to be the place to be as it gained $10. The XAU rose 2 1/2. ABX and GG gained 3/4, while NEM rose a buck. Volume continues extremely light here as well. But you cannot ignore the price movement. I really think it's too late for the September gold share calls at this point but we'll see. If the market does take the drop I'm expecting, the gold shares will go with it. Another missed opportunity? Time will tell. Mentally I'm feeling pretty good despite todays loss. It would not surprise me to see a solid upside day tomorrow with the current oversold condition. I thought about perhaps trying the OEX calls again today but did not. The next trade will be the OEX puts. The timing will have to be good because things will probably remain slow until around Labor day. It won't be easy. However I've been waiting all summer to put on this trade and if correct it will have been worth the wait.

The Dow lost 17 points today on very summer light volume. Advance/declines were negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The market bounced around and closed practically on its low for the day. I took a chance here and bought some OEX calls near the close. I had an open order in for most of the session and it got filled near the end of trading. I'm still expecting some type of bounce on Monday but if we don't get one, then I'll know the market is even weaker here than I thought. This should be a quick trade if it works. The stop loss order is in. Gold was flat on the day but the XAU lost 1 3/4. ABX lost 1/4, GG down 1/2 and NEM fell a buck. Volume very light here as well. The dollar had a bit of strength today. The Gold/XAU ratio is in the buy zone. I'm bouncing back and forth as whether to get the September gold share calls. The weekly charts look bullish but the daily charts not so much. I'll have to go over things again this weekend. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept more. Short term oversold here and I do expect some upside. However the summation index is heading lower and the major trend is now down in my humble opinion. I'll be looking to get some September OEX puts at some point here in the near future. The problem is that it is still summer and the volume is pathetic. Things can easily be moved around or just go nowhere. Expiration week coming up so we'll see how it goes. I'll check the charts over the weekend and be ready for Monday morning. However it could just be a slow summer Monday. We'll see. It's a summer weekend and time for a rest.

We continued lower as the Dow lost 58 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were in the red for the full trading session. That said, we are shirt term oversold and I do expect a bounce by Monday. I had an idea to try and play the OEX calls today for the expected bounce but did not. I'll have to mull things over tonight. I think that it is a trade that could work. I'm still going to get some September OEX puts though, perhaps next week. Gold had a good day and was up $17. The XAU gained 3 1/2. ABX was up 3/4, GG up a buck and NEM led the way, up 1 3/4. Volume was light but better than it has been. I'm still liking the gold shares because even though we've moved higher the Gold/XAU ratio is still close to the buy zone. Perhaps I will go out to September for the calls. We're overbought here though but that doesn't mean the precious metal won't move higher. The weekly gold share charts look pretty bullish. I'll ponder this idea tonight as well. The dollar moved up today as well but it did not affect gold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I do have a couple of ideas for trades that I did not consider until this weeks market action. I'll decide exactly what to do tonight. I do not want to lose focus on the main idea going forward though. That is to buy some OEX September puts on a move back towards the S&P 500 200 day moving average line. Gold looks good on the weekly charts and it would not be out of the question for it to rise on a stock market drop. 6 days to go on the August option cycle and next week is expiration. I'll check the charts tonight and take it from there.

Today we got clobbered as the Dow lost 265 on average volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The McClellan oscillator will be turning negative today. The expected decline has begun. The S&P 500 could not make it past the 200 day moving average line. I will be looking to purchase some September OEX puts when we get a snap back. Hopefully we will and I expect this to occur early next week. We have gotten oversold in a hurry. The gold futures were little changed on the day but the XAU lost 4 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all fell more than a buck on light volume. The dollar had a very good day on the flight to safety trade. Gold held up rather well considering. Obviously things have changed and I am considering a short term ABX call trade now for August. I expect a bounce by Monday in the stock indices and the gold shares should participate. The buy signal has returned for the Gold/XAU ratio. I'll no longer consider going out to September on the gold share trade after todays negative market action. Mentally I'm doing OK. So we have todays very negative action to consider going forward. Was this just a one day wonder? It could be but I doubt it. The technicals have now rolled over for the major indices. My thinking is to perhaps try the short term gold share trade immediately followed by getting the OEX puts for September. I'll have to look things over again tonight and take it from there. I do expect a bounce by Monday but the market will do what it wants.

We got the Fed out of the way as the Dow lost 54 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. We were down over 100 at one point but came back on the Fed keeping rates low "for an extended period of time". This is nothing new from the Fed. We have hovered around the 200 day moving average line in the S&P 500 for a few days. Haven't been able to break through to the upside yet but I think it will happen. I still want the OEX puts for the autumn but would like to wait for now. It isn't easy trying to be patient. Gold was down in the regular session but shot up after the Fed announcement. The dollar was higher early but also turned around on the Fed. That was the reason for the upside in gold in my opinion. The XAU was little changed after being lower early. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional upside gains after selling off early in the day as well. Volume was light but more than it has been lately. It has been such a light volume rally in the gold shares that getting the September calls may not be the thing to do. However if we do get a pullback, I'm still considering it. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. So here's my trading dilemma at the moment. I do expect a decent fall in the overall market in the coming weeks. But I would like to get long the gold shares. Getting long will not work if the market takes a hit. The weekly charts for gold look very promising for an upside move. Also gold has a pretty good correlation with the price of wheat. The price of wheat recently went parabolic to the upside. Could the same thing happen with gold? On the flip side the overall stock market has had a light volume rally that appears to be running out of steam. The over the counter shares have been weaker than the Dow and you really want to look for NASDAQ and Russell 2000 to be leaders, not laggards. If we are building a top here the resulting drop could be severe. I would like to be on the short side if that occurs. So there's my problem. I am at least going to try and wait until expiration week to do anything at this point. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A summer doldrums Monday as the Dow gained 45 points on extremely light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. Waiting on the Fed announcement tomorrow. Summation index continues higher. All indications are for the market to move higher. I have no OEX trades in mind right now. Gold lost a couple bucks and the XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on very light volume. The dollar had a slight gain today. If we get a pullback in the gold shares I will probably try the September ABX calls. But that remains to be seen. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well. 9 days left in the August option cycle. I don't foresee anything happening in the near future to bring me off of the sidelines. I still would like to get some OEX puts when I feel the time is right. The rally in the stock market has been on light volume and I simply do not trust it. I could be wrong and often am. Perhaps market forces can keep things going up until Labor day. But unless the volume picks up I will not be a believer. We'll see what the Fed has to say tomorrow.

The Dow sold off early with the disappointing employment report and was off over 150 points. However we made a late day comeback and the Dow closed with a loss of 21 points. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was light. The market has shown great resilience lately and wants to go higher. Summation index still moving to the upside. You cannot argue with the market. The only fly in the ointment is the volume but it is summertime. I'm still leaning towards getting some OEX puts for the autumn. Gold was up $6 and the XAU gained 1 2/3. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher by 1/2 to 2/3. Volume was the usual light here. The dollar was weaker on the poor jobs report and gold finally acted as it should in relation to the dollar. If we get a pullback in the gold shares, I may try the September ABX calls. The weekly charts in the gold shares are looking bullish. So we'll see. The reality is that I probably missed it though. Mentally I'm doing OK. So the jobs report has come and gone. We've got the Fed next Tuesday with the announcement on interest rates. The volume here is slow. It is hard for me to believe in this move higher having any staying power. I cannot fight the market though. 2 weeks to go for the August option cycle. I do not think I'll have any trades for the August options. But you never know. It's Friday afternoon in the summer. Time to forget about the markets for a while and relax.

The Dow traded in negative territory all day and closed with a loss of 5 points. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was light as usual. Today was a waiting game for tomorrows employment report. We are overbought but that doesn't mean that we can't stay there. I'm undecided about what to do here so I'm remaining on the sidelines as far as the OEX is concerned. Perhaps next week or later in the month. Gold was up $3 and the XAU was little changed. ABX and GG were little changed as well, while NEM rose 3/8. Volume was extremely light here as well. The dollar just hung around today as well. If we get a pullback in the gold shares, I'll try the September ABX calls. Otherwise it is too late for now in my opinion. So it's time to be patient. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So we'll digest the employment report and go from there. 2 weeks and a day left on the August option cycle. I don't anticipate any trades for me in the August cycle but we'll see how things develop. Volume is very light and that is a problem discerning what is really going on. But that won't stop me from making a trade if a decent signal appears. However there is nothing wrong with sitting things out for now.

The Dow gained 44 points on light volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. Summation index continuing higher. Employment report on Friday. I'm thinking about getting some OEX puts tomorrow. We are just above the 200 day moving average line on the S&P 500 and stalling. If we break out to the upside there will be a lot of room to go. However if we fail here, it's possible that a top has been put in. That said I will ponder this idea tonight. Breadth has been very good on this uptrend but the volume hasn't. Gold had a good day, up almost $10 on the futures. The XAU rose 3 2/3. ABX and GG were both up over a buck, while NEM gained 3/4. Volume was light here as well. ABX has shown good relative strength here. If I do try the gold share calls, ABX will be the choice. The dollar was stronger today but gold rose anyway. The dollar/gold relationship has not made much sense lately. This could just be light volume summer gyrations of no consequence. I don't know. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well. So I'm thinking of putting on a trade but I'm not quite sold on exactly what to do here. I will need to make sure that I'm not trading just to do something. That I'm not trading out of boredom or just for the sake of making a trade. I'll go over things tonight and come up with a plan for tomorrow. Perhaps remaining on the sidelines will be the best course of action after all.

The Dow lost 38 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. The market is digesting yesterdays big gain before the next move. The employment report is out on Friday and that should be the next major catalyst. We are still hovering just above the 200 day moving average on the S&P 500. I'm still on the sidelines regarding the August OEX options. Gold was up a couple bucks today and the XAU closed flat. ABX was up 3/8, while GG and NEM had fractional losses. Volume was light here as well. The dollar continued lower and gold cannot rally. I'm not sure exactly what is going on with that relationship lately. I still may try the September gold share calls though. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK, could have slept better. So it's the beginning of August and we continue in a positive mode for stock prices. As I said yesterday the question is how long can it last? I'll try and remain patient for now. As for the gold shares, we are in the seasonal strength period for gold. That doesn't mean that higher prices are in the offing but it should help the bullish cause there going forward. The volume has been very light for the gold complex and that makes me hesitate to put on a trade here at the moment. Summer doldrums for now in gold. We'll see what happens Wednesday.

August started with a bang as the Dow rose 208 points albeit on light volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index remains in a steady uptrend. The short term oversold condition was worked off and the rally resumed. How much longer will it go is the question. I certainly don't have the answer. I'm still looking to get some OEX puts for September when I feel the time is right. The S&P 500 just broke through its 200 day moving average. I'm going to try and remain patient. I will take time for a decent top to be put in when and if that formation does occur. Gold was little changed on the day as was the XAU, which gained 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. The dollar was again pretty weak today but it isn't helping the price of gold. There's a disconnect going on there. Other commodities rallied but the precious metal just didn't do much. I'm still looking at the September gold share calls though. We are oversold on a daily basis and getting there on a weekly time frame as well. The Gold/XAU buy signal isn't in effect as yet. Plus the volume has been pitiful, indicating not much interest at the moment. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. 3 weeks in the August option cycle and I don't have anything that stands out trading wise at this time. It may be best to just wait things out until the summer is over. That won't be easy to do but it could be the prudent course of action.

We started the day down over 100 points, came back into positive territory during the last hour and closed the day off a point. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was summer Friday low. GDP was a bit less than expected but the market shrugged it off. The indices have the feel of wanting to go higher. Summation index remains to the upside. We'll see what happens next week. Gold had a good day, up $12. The XAU gained 2 1/8. ABX up 1/2, GG up 3/8 and NEM up 1/4. Volume was very light again. The technicals are moving up on the gold shares but the volume is lacking. I still may try the September calls. We are back to almost having a buy signal on the Gold/XAU ratio. The dollar didn't do much today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The markets did move around a lot today but they had a lackluster attitude about it. It's a summertime market here to be sure. That's why the trading could be tougher than usual, volatility wise. There's no rush to do anything really. So I'm going to wait for a decent set up, hopefully. I'm still leaning towards waiting for the expected decline in autumn. But who knows? It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

An up and down type of day as the Dow closed with a loss of 30 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. End of the month tomorrow. Summation index still heading higher. I'm trying to remain patient here as I think we still may have some room to go on the upside. GDP report tomorrow as well. Gold was up $8 today and the XAU rose 3/4. ABX had good earnings but only went up 1/2. GG was flat on the earnings news and NEM gained 1/3. Volume was light. If good earnings can't move the gold shares, then what will? No interest there but I'm still going to look at the September calls as a seasonality play. The dollar was weaker today which helped the metal but not the mining shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 3 weeks to go in the August option cycle, so there is plenty of time to consider something. We are working off the overbought condition of the stock market. I think that we could head higher when that is complete. The gold shares are oversold on the technicals but not doing much despite that. I'll remain on the sidelines for now and we'll see what happens tomorrow.

The Dow lost 40 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. Once again the overall market was weaker than the Dow. We are are stalling at the 200 day moving average on the S&P 500. I do think that we will get through there in the near term. But I could be wrong. The summation index continues higher. GDP and the end of the month on Friday. So we'll see. I have no OEX trades in mind at the moment. Gold was up a touch on the futures and the XAU gained 1/2. ABX and GG were flat on the day. NEM reported disappointing earnings and dropped 3/8. Volume was nothing special for the gold shares. I did place an overnight order for the ABX September calls but it wasn't filled and I canceled it before tomorrows earnings announcement. I may try them again later. We are oversold on the daily chart and just about there on the weekly as well. We're also near the seasonally strong period of August and September for gold. So a gold share trade may be in order shortly. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. As much as I'd like to have some ABX calls before the earnings come out, I did not feel comfortable taking the risk. This is probably a byproduct of the lousy trading year so far. Also a factor is my prognosis for lower equity prices down the road in a few weeks which would affect the gold shares as well if indeed we see weakness. So it's the sidelines for now.

The Dow edged higher today by 12 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. We are due for some type of pullback here to relieve the current overbought condition. A lot of time left in the August option cycle. I'm not looking to get short here. I will wait for that sometime next month if all goes as planned. Which it rarely does. Gold broke down today, off $25. The XAU fell 5 1/2. ABX lost 1 3/4, GG dropped 1 1/2 and NEM was minus 2 1/3. Volume was heavy to the downside. ABX broke through its 200 day moving average line. Yes, I am still thinking about getting some ABX calls but I think that I'll go out to the September contract if I do anything. Plenty of gold share earnings in the next 2 days. We are oversold now. Almost a a buy signal on the Gold/XAU ratio as well. So perhaps now is the time for some calls. But it's risky and we have just broken out of a support zone in gold itself. We'll see how it goes tomorrow. The dollar is also due for a possible bounce here as there is a positive divergence on the RSI indicator. That would not be a positive for gold. The flight to safety trade is over for now. Mentally I'm doing OK. Remaining patient for now with regards to the overall stock market and the OEX. Might try an ABX trade Wednesday. It's a tough call after todays action and the looming earnings announcement. So we'll see.

We continue higher as the summer rally lives on. The Dow gained 100 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. The summation index remains in an uptrend. We're overbought and I'd expect some brief downside at some point this week. However we have broken above 1100 on the S&P 500 and the downtrend line from the end of April has been broken to the upside. I think the rally could have more steam than originally anticipated. I am not going to chase it here. Gold was down about $5 on the futures and the XAU lost 1 1/2. ABX fell 5/8, GG dropped 3/8 and NEM lost a buck. Volume was light. Earnings for NEM and GG on Wednesday, with ABX reporting Thursday. I canceled my ABX August call order. The technicals look like they are about to roll over to the downside. The dollar fell today and gold itself could not rally. I can't say that I know what will happen here but I'm taking the risk off the table. I could change my mind tomorrow if ABX were to fall to it's 200 day moving average. But that remains to be seen. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The end of the month is coming up on Friday. We'll see if that skews things. There is some data coming out this week, including the first look at 2nd quarter GDP. So the summer doldrums that I expected haven't materialized in the stock market.

We closed the week on a positive note as the Dow gained 102 points on light volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. We got the results from Europe's "stress" tests of their banks. The only stress it caused was if you were short the market. I'll stick to the technicals. We're short term overbought but that doesn't mean that we can't stay there. Summation index still heading higher. GE increased its dividend and went higher which could be a precursor for the overall market. Perhaps playing this summer rally was the thing to do. I'm still going to wait and get short eventually. Gold fell $7 but the XAU rose a point. ABX, GG and NEM all had slight fractional moves to the upside on light volume. I adjusted down my August ABX call order but I'm thinking I may just cancel it. We are midway between overbought and oversold. There is no buy signal from the Gold/XAU ratio. The volume has been anemic lately. Earnings are due next week for the gold shares. That should be a catalyst but who knows? Again, I'll have to sort things out over the weekend. I think the July gold futures contract expires next week as well. Mentally I'm feeling good. We're right at the 1100 level on the S&P 500 and it looks like we could break through. That would propel us higher. The light volume would work in my favor for the case of shorting this market sometime next month. So we'll see. Gold isn't doing much and neither are the gold shares. That could change but I'm really going to have to consider passing on that ABX trade as well. Things to ponder. But right now it's Friday afternoon in the summertime. Time for a rest.

Right on back to the upside as the Dow gained 201 points on average volume. Advance/declines were about 6 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher and that portends higher prices. Yesterdays decline can be chalked up to Bernanke. So we'll see if we can get above 1100 on the S&P 500 and go from there. I'm still going to wait for the OEX puts for September or October. That's the game plan for now. Gold was up $3 on the futures, while the XAU gained 3 2/3. ABX and GG were both up about 1/2. NEM was higher by 7/8. Volume was light as it has been. I don't know how much longer that I'll leave in the ABX August call order. The slight recent rise has been on very light volume. We are moving up from oversold on the technicals. So we'll see. I still expect the earnings next week to be good. The dollar took a big hit today and gold didn't rally that much. That's another warning sign about getting long the gold shares here in my opinion. It could just be a summer sideways pattern in the gold shares for a while. So I will have to think about this trade overnight. Mentally I'm feeling good. The stock market has had more movement than I expected so far this summer. We'll have to see if that continues. My scenario remains the same and patience is necessary. I'm trying my best to wait things out. So far, so good.

The Dow lost 109 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The market moved lower on Bernankes blabbering. That's about the only reason I can find. That doesn't mean we can't just go lower here. However the summation index remains to the upside. I'm still thinking sideways to higher for a while but I could be wrong. Gold was flat on the futures and down in the aftermarket. ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM fell 7/8. Volume was light as it has been lately and probably will be this summer. The XAU dropped 1/3. I'm still leaving in the open order for the August ABX calls. If it isn't filled before the earnings announcement, I'll cancel it. Mentally I'm tired today and it has been a long day. More of the same tomorrow. We'll see if there is any follow through to todays negative action.

Sold off early today over 100 points and came all the way back to finish the day up 75. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive and the volume was average. Bullish action to be sure. It is looking more like Friday was an aberration for now but there's still 3 days left in the week. I'm going to let the market run here and focus on getting short when this rally concludes. It will take some patience but I'm hopefully up to the challenge. My forward market projection still calls for weakness in late summer, early autumn. Gold was up $10 today, erasing yesterdays loss. The XAU rose 3 7/8. ABX and GG gained 2/3, while NEM was up a buck. Volume was light. I'm leaving in the open order for the ABX calls. Hopefully we'll build a bottom here and then rise on the earnings news next week. If not we could just head up from here and I'll cancel the order. The dollar was slightly higher today. Mentally I'm a bit tired but not bad. Bernanke is speaking this week and that always has the potential to be a market mover. The housing data out today was viewed as mixed. Summation index moving higher and that implies that the trend will be up. I have an appointment tomorrow and on Thursday, so the posting for the blog will be later in the evening.

The Dow gained 56 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. The question is whether Fridays negative action was simply option related or not. The summation index continues higher. I'm inclined to think that we will slowly move upwards or create a trading range before heading lower later in the summer or at the beginning of autumn. But that's a guess. Gold lost $6 today and the XAU fell a couple of points. ABX off 1/2, GG fell 3/8 and NEM lost 7/8. All were lower earlier. Volume was better than it has been. Oversold on the gold shares and I placed an order for some ABX August calls. I'll be leaving it in overnight. Not exactly sure this is the most prudent thing to do but the Gold/XAU ratio is in the buy zone and the shares are oversold technically. So if there was a time to try the calls, now is it. We'll see what happens. The dollar didn't do much today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We'll have to see if the market can regain its footing this week after last Fridays debacle. It is summer and as I've said before things can slow down. I'm willing to give the gold shares a try here because the earnings will be out next week as well. But they could sell off on good news too. There are never any easy trades in the game. Not a lot of data out this week, mostly housing numbers and I can't expect them to be anything bullish. So we'll see.

It was a sell off expiration as the Dow dropped 261 points. Now that's what I had been looking for a bit earlier this week. Volume was a little higher than lately. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. So now the question will be is this decline the start of something bigger or simply a one day wonder? I have no answers at the moment. I can say the technicals will be oversold in a hurry. I also think after today things will slow down but I could be wrong. Gold lost $20 on the futures but came back a bit in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 5 2/3. ABX dropped 1 1/4, GG fell 1 1/8 and NEM lost 1 3/4. Volume was light. The dollar ended the day with little change. The gold share charts look negative but the Gold/XAU ratio is back on a buy signal. Earnings are coming out in a week and a half. Perhaps this will be the next trade. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well. The August option cycle has an extra week so the premiums are high. I'll have to look things over again this weekend. Volume has slowed and the best course of action could very well be to do nothing. Trading earnings alone is never a good strategy. Plenty to think about over the weekend. It's a Friday afternoon in the summer. Time for a break.

We were lower for most of the day and down over 100 at one point but the Dow came back to close with just a loss of 7 points. Advance/declines were about even and the volume was average. Summation index heading higher. Still overbought and it looks like the positive expiration bias remains in effect. You could have bought the OEX puts yesterday and sold them early today for a profit. But I'm more interested in sustained moves. We are getting a summer rally and I'll have to wait for its conclusion. Gold didn't do much today and the XAU lost 3/4. ABX and GG had fractional moves both ways, while NEM lost a buck. Volume was light. The dollar got clobbered today and gold did not react. The flight to safety trade in the dollar is being taken off. I'm still thinking about the ABX August calls for the earnings announcement in a week and a half. However my confidence is shot at the moment. That said, ABX is in oversold territory. Things to ponder going forward. Mentally I'm doing OK. So it looks like we are putting in back to back decent weeks in the stock market. I have some levels that I'm waiting for and then I am going to purchase some OEX puts for September or October. That's the game plan for now. It's summertime and I expect the doldrums to appear shortly.

An up and down session as the Dow ended the day basically flat, with a gain of 3 points on summer average volume. Advance/declines were slightly negative. Good news from Intel led the way but it wasn't enough for a sustained rally. Still overbought here as the market seems to be holding up for the expiration on Friday. I canceled the OEX put trade with only a couple of days left in the July cycle but there's still a chance that I may try tomorrow. Very risky though. Gold dropped around $5 and the XAU was off 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional moves on light volume. The dollar was a bit weaker today. Gold share earnings are due in a couple of weeks. I was going to play the ABX calls on this news but now I'm not so sure. The technicals are oversold here on a daily basis. However there doesn't seem to be any conviction in the gold market here as we simply move sideways. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. It is summertime in the markets. I really think that we are going to slow down even more as we continue into August. I could be wrong. If I don't try this OEX put trade then I'll be on the sidelines for a while I presume. I may simply wait to try the puts in autumn. So we'll see. There's 5 weeks in the August option cycle, which means that there is no hurry to do anything.

The market took off to the upside today as the Dow gained 146 points. Advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive and the volume was average. The strong open blew through my stop order and I had to take a bigger loss than anticipated. About 80% on that OEX put trade as I'm starting off the 2nd half of the year right where I left off the first half. Overbought and staying there but I'm still a believer that this rally isn't for real. 3 days left for the July option cycle. I am leaving in another open order for OEX puts and moving to a higher strike price. It's risky to be sure but the short term sell signal is in place. We'll see. Gold had a good day as the dollar was weaker. The precious metal gained about $15 on the futures. The XAU only rose 1/3 after being higher early. ABX, GG and NEM were mixed with fractional moves after being higher early as well. Volume was light to average. It looks like the flight to safety trade is still being unwound here in the gold shares. I will try them again at some point this summer. That's my thinking at the moment. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well. Another trade and another loser as this year is like a broken record. Plenty of time left, however it may be time to take a break and wait for the anticipated drop in autumn. I'll wait and see if this next OEX trade gets filled tomorrow. Perhaps I'll simply cancel it but there will be some downside at some point by Friday.

Not much movement for a typical summer Monday as the Dow gained 18 points today. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was light. My OEX puts almost got stopped out today and probably will be tomorrow. 10 points out of the money and 4 days to go. Not really enough time for this trade to work. We're short term overbought now. However it looks like the positive expiration week bias is in effect for now. I still might roll up to a closer strike price on the OEX towards the end of the week if we continue higher. We'll see. Gold lost $10 today and the XAU fell 1 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM held up rather well with fractional moves one way or the other. Volume pretty light here as well. The dollar was higher on the day. I'm still interested in the August ABX calls if we get some weakness in ABX. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So unless we get a downside open tomorrow, this OEX trade will be dead. The timing wasn't right, again. I may sit things out for a while since it's summer and things really seem to be slowing down. No data out until Wednesday with retail sales. So we'll see what happens tomorrow.

It was a good week for the bulls as we had another up day on Friday. The Dow closed higher by 59 points on summer light volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. My order for the OEX puts was filled. It's already in the red as the timing was a bit early. However light volume rallies are not to be trusted, so we'll see how it goes. We are at the resistance level that I had in mind , so some type of pullback is expected in my estimation. But I could be wrong. Perhaps we'll just continue higher for option expiration week. The stop loss order is in. Gold had a good day, up $14. The XAU rose 4 1/4. ABX and GG were up a buck and NEM tacked on 1 1/2. The volume was light however and these issues were higher earlier. I still may try the August ABX calls before the earnings announcement at the end of this month. I'll have to ponder this over the weekend. The dollar was up a touch today and hasn't been moving much in the past few days. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So we're a bit overbought now and the Dow is at its down trend line from the beginning of May. Grounds for a pullback in my opinion. But anything can and will happen. The summation index has turned around and is moving to the upside. So there are some crosscurrents out there. I don't see any major events moving gold one way or the other in the near term as well. We could enter the summer doldrums period, which would not help the OEX put trade. Volatility has disappeared this week as well. So we'll see what happens over the weekend and take it from there. It's summertime, Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The Dow continued higher today, up 120 points. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index should be turning higher. The market opened higher, traded lower later in the day and then came back in the final hour. Perhaps the decline has ended. However I still have an open order for the OEX July puts. We're not overbought yet but getting there. The S&P 500 is 5 points away from what I consider resistance at 1075. So we'll see what happens tomorrow. Gold lost $3 today and the XAU shed 2 1/4. ABX was down over a buck and a quarter on good volume. GG dropped 34 and NEM was actually up 1/3. Both on light volume. I canceled the open order for ABX August calls. I still may do that trade but not right now. Mentally I'm very tired at the moment. I'm going to check on a few more things here tonight and then determine if I still want to try the OEX puts. It's been a long day and I need some rest.

Today we got the long awaited oversold bounce as the Dow gained 275 points. Advance/declines were over 5 to 1 positive and the volume was average. So now what? That is the question. I put in an order for some OEX puts which I will leave in overnight. I think we can go a bit higher here in the near term but I do not expect some type of straight up rally. As usual I could be wrong. We are at 1060 on the S&P 500 and I think there's a lid at 1075. We'll see. In downtrends you get these one day short covering rallies that then peter out. Time will tell. Gold came back today too, up $4 on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket. The XAU gained 4 3/4. ABX and GG were both up around 3/4 or so and NEM led the way by 1 1/4. Volume was light. The dollar lost a touch. ABX is bouncing off of it's daily trend line that has held since February. I still have an order in for the August ABX calls but it won't be filled if we rally from here. I'll have to reconsider this idea tonight. Perhaps now is the time to just purchase some August gold share calls. We are in a seasonal weak period for gold though. However I expect the earnings to be good at the end of this month for ABX. Things to ponder. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. So where do we go from here? Could the market be sold out right now? Always plenty of questions with no clear answers in this game. Will the summation index turn around here? I'm still a believer that this rally today won't last long. Another possibility is that we enter a sideways light volume summer doldrums period. That scenario will not be conducive to outright option positions. So there's a lot to think about tonight. Tomorrows blog will be later in the day as I am taking a half day off to get out of town for a while.

We got somewhat of a bounce today as the Dow gained 57 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. We gapped higher at the open and were up 170 points early. Gave it all back and then some but rallied into the close. So the volatility remains. I'm still considering the July OEX puts if we get some upside. But things remain uncertain. We're still oversold and haven't relieved that condition. So we'll see what happens. Not a lot of data out this week and it is summer. Gold dropped around $15 today and the XAU fell 1 1/3. ABX GG and NEM all had fractional losses on summertime average volume. GG led the way. I still have the August ABX call order in but we are right at the multi week uptrend line and if that is broken I may have to cancel. We are oversold on the gold shares though and the Gold/XAU ratio is in the buy zone. However the dollar was weaker today as well and that may mean that the flight to safety trade is being unwound. That's a guess as usual. Mentally I'm feeling OK after the long holiday weekend. 8 days remain in the July option cycle. Nothing imminent on the radar at the moment. It won't hurt to be patient here either. So I'll stay on the sidelines and see what the market brings.

The market tried to get into positive territory but failed at the close. The Dow lost 46 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. The jobs report was weak and that was expected. The market is so oversold it is hard to believe that it hasn't yet rallied hard for a day or crashed. The technicals are not acting as they should. The prudent thing to do would be to step aside in my opinion. I'm on the sidelines as far as the indices go but that will change. I'd like to short any bounce we get but then, so does everyone else. Gold was up a touch on the futures and in the aftermarket. The XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. I'm leaving in my August ABX call ticket. I'll rethink things over the weekend. The dollar was lower today. I think that the gold earnings will be stellar at the end of this month and would like to be long something by then. But that's a guess and subject to change of course. Mentally I'm tired, did not sleep well. So it was a down week to be sure and we are still oversold. Hard to figure out why there hasn't been some kind of bounce. If the market is really that weak, I would expect a violent down day. Hasn't happened. So on we go. Volatility has decreased in the past couple of days but we are still moving lower. That's another puzzle to try and figure out. Long holiday weekend and a short 4 day week coming up. 9 days left for the July options. I'm leaning towards the OEX puts if we ever get a bounce. But it's risky. There has to be some massive short covering at some point doesn't there? Who knows? Maybe we will simply grind down all the way to the July expiration. At any rate, there is a lot to think about for the next 3 days. But for now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market tried to have a positive day but it was not to be as the Dow lost 41 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were negative. We are very oversold here and really due for some type of short-covering bounce. But we've been oversold for a while. The Dow was down 150 at one point. We've got the employment report tomorrow ahead of a long weekend. Anything can happen. We are in a down trend. Rallies will be sold. Gold got clobbered today, down about $40 on the futures. The XAU fell 7 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM all were over 2 point losers on good volume. I canceled the ABX July call order. I placed another order for ABX calls going out to August. I'm not sure if today was a one day wonder for gold or the start of something bigger. The dollar got clobbered as well so the flight to safety trade was taken off in a big way. Perhaps the markets here sense a rally about to happen for the indices. Hard to believe that though. Maybe traders were trying to lock in some 2nd half of the year profits on the first day. It's all a guess but you cannot ignore the price action. Mentally I'm feeling fine, slept well. The summation index continues lower, we are in dangerous territory and the market cannot seem to get even one day of rally. Interesting times indeed. Who knows what tomorrows employment numbers will look like? I'm on the sidelines as far as the stock indices are concerned for the moment. So we'll see what tomorrow brings.