Thursday, August 12, 2010
We continued lower as the Dow lost 58 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were in the red for the full trading session. That said, we are shirt term oversold and I do expect a bounce by Monday. I had an idea to try and play the OEX calls today for the expected bounce but did not. I'll have to mull things over tonight. I think that it is a trade that could work. I'm still going to get some September OEX puts though, perhaps next week. Gold had a good day and was up $17. The XAU gained 3 1/2. ABX was up 3/4, GG up a buck and NEM led the way, up 1 3/4. Volume was light but better than it has been. I'm still liking the gold shares because even though we've moved higher the Gold/XAU ratio is still close to the buy zone. Perhaps I will go out to September for the calls. We're overbought here though but that doesn't mean the precious metal won't move higher. The weekly gold share charts look pretty bullish. I'll ponder this idea tonight as well. The dollar moved up today as well but it did not affect gold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I do have a couple of ideas for trades that I did not consider until this weeks market action. I'll decide exactly what to do tonight. I do not want to lose focus on the main idea going forward though. That is to buy some OEX September puts on a move back towards the S&P 500 200 day moving average line. Gold looks good on the weekly charts and it would not be out of the question for it to rise on a stock market drop. 6 days to go on the August option cycle and next week is expiration. I'll check the charts tonight and take it from there.
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