Tuesday, August 10, 2010
We got the Fed out of the way as the Dow lost 54 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. We were down over 100 at one point but came back on the Fed keeping rates low "for an extended period of time". This is nothing new from the Fed. We have hovered around the 200 day moving average line in the S&P 500 for a few days. Haven't been able to break through to the upside yet but I think it will happen. I still want the OEX puts for the autumn but would like to wait for now. It isn't easy trying to be patient. Gold was down in the regular session but shot up after the Fed announcement. The dollar was higher early but also turned around on the Fed. That was the reason for the upside in gold in my opinion. The XAU was little changed after being lower early. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional upside gains after selling off early in the day as well. Volume was light but more than it has been lately. It has been such a light volume rally in the gold shares that getting the September calls may not be the thing to do. However if we do get a pullback, I'm still considering it. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. So here's my trading dilemma at the moment. I do expect a decent fall in the overall market in the coming weeks. But I would like to get long the gold shares. Getting long will not work if the market takes a hit. The weekly charts for gold look very promising for an upside move. Also gold has a pretty good correlation with the price of wheat. The price of wheat recently went parabolic to the upside. Could the same thing happen with gold? On the flip side the overall stock market has had a light volume rally that appears to be running out of steam. The over the counter shares have been weaker than the Dow and you really want to look for NASDAQ and Russell 2000 to be leaders, not laggards. If we are building a top here the resulting drop could be severe. I would like to be on the short side if that occurs. So there's my problem. I am at least going to try and wait until expiration week to do anything at this point. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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