Tuesday, July 27, 2010
The Dow edged higher today by 12 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. We are due for some type of pullback here to relieve the current overbought condition. A lot of time left in the August option cycle. I'm not looking to get short here. I will wait for that sometime next month if all goes as planned. Which it rarely does. Gold broke down today, off $25. The XAU fell 5 1/2. ABX lost 1 3/4, GG dropped 1 1/2 and NEM was minus 2 1/3. Volume was heavy to the downside. ABX broke through its 200 day moving average line. Yes, I am still thinking about getting some ABX calls but I think that I'll go out to the September contract if I do anything. Plenty of gold share earnings in the next 2 days. We are oversold now. Almost a a buy signal on the Gold/XAU ratio as well. So perhaps now is the time for some calls. But it's risky and we have just broken out of a support zone in gold itself. We'll see how it goes tomorrow. The dollar is also due for a possible bounce here as there is a positive divergence on the RSI indicator. That would not be a positive for gold. The flight to safety trade is over for now. Mentally I'm doing OK. Remaining patient for now with regards to the overall stock market and the OEX. Might try an ABX trade Wednesday. It's a tough call after todays action and the looming earnings announcement. So we'll see.
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