Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Overbought and staying there as the Dow gained 46 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We are both short and medium term overbought now. I do expect lower prices in the near future. That doesn't mean things won't hold up here for expiration, they could. I'm leaving in the OEX October puts order. We still have yet to break the resistance at 1130 on the S&P 500. Let me say something about the volume here. Average volume lately would normally be considered light. Light volume is now considered very light. There just aren't as many participants as there used to be. That will change but I don't know when. Gold was off a couple of bucks after yesterdays record run. The XAU fell 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all moved fractionally on average volume. I would have liked to have seen some follow through on gold and the gold shares but it didn't happen. My ABX calls are in the red. If the market does drop here, the gold shares will probably go with it initially. So this trade at the moment looks like another loser. I may just bail out of it before the weekend if I don't see some upside in the next 2 days. The dollar bounced a bit today and that didn't help the precious metal. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept longer. It is also possible that tomorrow brings a very positive day as some of my work indicates that there could be an upside breakout to the trading range. But it would have to be a huge volume day and with the current overbought status, I don't think it will happen. But I've been wrong for much of the year already. If we do open strong I'll have to cancel the OEX put trade. So we'll see.
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