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Friday, February 27, 2026

More selling today but it could have been worse as the Dow fell 521 points on pretty heavy end of the month volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. The Dow led things lower today. The inflation data came in a bit higher than expected. A final hour rally kept things from being worse. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to flatten out at the mid-range level. The S&P remains stuck in a trading range. Not sure what's next here as you could make a case either way. Gold was up $86 on the futures today. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates dropped. That doesn't really fit with a higher than expected inflation number but the market always knows more than we do. The XAU gained over 7 1/2, while GDX was up 1 7/8. Both hit new all time highs. Volume was still on the light side. The short term indicators for GDX remain overbought and staying there which occurs during rallies like the one we are seeing now. My GDX March puts are solid losers and I should have just dumped them and taken the loss today. My position is now far out of the money. The only thing is has going for it is plenty of time left until option expiration. But I should be in cut the loss mode. However I never trust light volume rallies and that is what GDX is in. But markets can go on longer than you can stay liquid. Mentally is a little bit of a downer. This GDX put trade was one that perhaps I should not have taken. The gold shares were continuing higher even when gold was just hanging around. The signs were there that the rally could possibly continue and it has. Now I'm holding a losing position over the weekend which clouds my mental view for the next possible trade. The VIX was higher today but closed below 20 and off of the best levels on the session. The short term indicators here are trying to move higher. Not sure what's coming next for this indicator. Europe was lower and Asia higher with the exception of India to close the week. I'll be checking the charts this weekend as usual. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

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