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Thursday, February 26, 2026

A mixed picture today as the Dow managed a gain of 17 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 had losses, with the NASDAQ down over 1%. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P have now turned lower but it did come up off of the worst levels on the day. End of the month tomorrow and inflation data due. The NASDAQ continues to lag and that is usually not a good sign. Gold was off $17 on the futures. The US dollar was a touch higher and interest rates were lower. The XAU climbed 12 1/4 and GDX was up 2 1/2 to a new all time high. Volume was just below average. The gold shares are leading gold and that is a positive. It appears that my idea for the GDX March puts is not going to work out. GDX is short term overbought and in the midst of a light volume rally. My timing seems to be early here and unless we see some decline in GDX tomorrow this trade will be a loser. It is now posting a modest loss. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit higher today but down from the highest levels on the session. The up trend line from January remains in place. The short term indicators for the VIX now look mixed. Asia was lower except for Japan and Europe finished the day up. We'll see how the market reacts to tomorrows data and take it from there.

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