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Wednesday, February 18, 2026

Moving higher today as the Dow gained 129 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trending higher. We opened higher, had a sell off in the middle of the day only to jump back up in the final hour. The NASDAQ led the way and that is a positive. However I'm not sold on the two day rally continuing. My guess is that the short term buy signal that we got has run its course. I did try to purchase some SPY February calls again this morning but that idea has run its course. I canceled the order. I did take a look at the SPY February puts today but we don't really have a signal for that. The short term indicators for the S&P have now turned up at the mid-range level for ones we are looking at. We are back to the sidelines here. Gold was up $99 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was up 9 3/4, while GDX added 2 1/3. Volume was lighter than average. The short term indicators for GDX are pointing up at the mid-range level. GDX is right up against its short term down trend line and if that line holds it would make a case for the GDX puts. But there are only two days left in the February option cycle and I'm not sure it is worth the risk. I'm pretty sure that it isn't. Patience in waiting for the next decent signal is what is required at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and closed below the 20 level. Its short term indicators are pointing lower at the mid-range level. Not sure what's next here as the VIX has been in a steady climb since the beginning of the year. Asia and Europe were both up overnight. I'll keep an eye on this evenings headlines.

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