Thursday, February 19, 2026
Some selling today as the Dow fell 267 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index continues to trend higher. The Dow led things lower and that isn't the most bearish scenario. We got a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move with the next two sessions. We'll see if that happens tomorrow. The S&P 500 had a small drop today. The short term indicators for the S&P are now stalling just below the mid-range level. My guess is that it will be weak tomorrow for expiration Friday but I'm not making any trades based on that. Waiting for the next signal. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU was up 6 1/3 and GDX rose 1 3/4. Volume remains light here for now. The short term indicators are now moving higher for GDX. I'm still a believer that gold itself has seen its high at around $5600 and won't be getting above that number anytime soon. I'm willing to try the GDX puts again on any short term overbought condition. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit higher and is back above the 20 level. The short term indicators here are hanging around the mid-range level. Still not sure where it goes from here. Asia was up with the exception of India and Europe was down. We'll get inflation data and GDP tomorrow. Expiration Friday on tap.
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