Wednesday, February 04, 2026
A mixed bag today as the Dow gained 260 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving sideways. We got a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move with the next two sessions and todays drop in the NASDAQ qualifies that. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted losses on the session, with the NASDAQ once again leading the way lower. It is hard to have a positive outlook going forward with the NASDAQ down in the dumps. The short term indicators for the S&P are still trending lower and are at the mid-range level. Sellers have the upper hand for now. Gold was up $29 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat again. The XAU was off 7/8 and GDX rose 1/2. Volume remains good here. The short term indicators for GDX are starting to trend sideways. We still like the idea of trying the GDX February puts going forward. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today. The indicators here are still tracking higher but without any conviction. Got above the 20 level again but then fell back. Again, we are getting a mixed picture from the indicators when it applies to the SPY right now so we are waiting for a solid signal one way or the other. There is still plenty of time in the February option cycle to put on a trade with regards to the SPY. Remaining patient for now. I'm leaning towards the calls. Asia and Europe were higher except for the NIKK and the DAX. I'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.
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