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Monday, February 23, 2026

Was today a delayed reaction to the tariff ruling? Perhaps, as the Dow lost 821 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to stall. The Dow was the leader heading south and that's not the worst scenario. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 dropped over 1%. The short term indicators for the S&P have now turned down. 6800 seems to be the line in the sand for the S&P. A close below there could lead to more selling. Gold was up $168 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates fell. The XAU was up 11 2/3, while GDX gained over 3 3/4. Volume was above average. The short term indicators for GDX are still moving higher. Could I be wrong about golds rally being over? Maybe. The gold shares are outperforming gold itself at the moment and that is a positive. GDX is almost back to a new all time high. I did however place an overnight order for the GDX March puts and I'm leaving it out there. If GDX blasts off to a new all time high I'll have to change my thinking. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and is back over the 20 level. The short term indicators here have moved back up. I'm not sure what's next for this indicator. Option premiums are high as we have just moved into the March option cycle. Waiting for a decent signal to trade the SPY options. Inflation data on Friday that I do think will be higher than expected. Asian markets have been returning from holiday. Europe was down and Asia generally higher to begin the week. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

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