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Tuesday, February 03, 2026

We had the return of volatility today as the Dow fell 166 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues to track sideways. It was a one day downside reversal for most indices as stocks opened higher and closed lower. Once again the NASDAQ led the way lower and that's a negative. The S&P 500 dropped almost sixty points. The short term indicators there are now moving lower. It did bounce off of the 50 day moving average though. I do not think we are in for a big drop here right away but I could be wrong. We are still waiting for a signal to trade the SPY options. Gold had a much needed bounce today as the futures gained $310. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU rose over 17 1/2, while GDX added 4. Volume remains pretty heavy here. Some of the short term indicators for GDX have begun to turn up. This is a start to the bounce we are looking for in order to try and get the GDX February puts again. Ideally this would occur at around the 105 level for GDX if it can make it back that far. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX shot higher today before falling back below the 20 level. The short term indicators here are now pointing higher. It appears that volatility has made a comeback which means that the trading has to be quite nimble to be successful. I don't have a good handle on the SPY right now so we will have to sit things out there. I do favor the GDX puts again at some point before the February option expiration. However we will remain patient for now. Asia was higher and Europe slightly lower overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

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