Monday, March 02, 2026
We had a dramatic one day upside reversal for some of the major indices but the Dow fell 73 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still in a sideways channel. War in Iran broke out over the weekend and that helps to explain the various price action that we were seeing on Friday. Stocks opened with a huge gap lower to begin the day but fought there way back for the rest of the session. The S&P 500 bounced off of the 6800 level which remains in place for now at the bottom of the two month sideways consolidation we find ourselves in. The short term indicators here are at mid-range so things could go either way here. The NASDAQ led things back and that's a plus for the bulls. However we are in a place right now that is dominated by geo-political tensions and outright aggression. The trading is never easy. Gold rallied $105 on the futures in the flight to safety. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU slipped 1 1/8, while GDX was off 1/2 on above average volume. The gold shares came back from the worst levels on the day. However with gold itself up and the gold shares down it does raise some more questions about what is going on here. I've still got the GDX March puts at a loss for now. GDX is still short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but did come back from its best levels. Above the 20 level and that usually means more volatility to come. The short term indicators on the VIX are moving up from the mid-range level. Should be an interesting week. How long I hold on to the GDX put trade is the main question for me at the moment. Asia and Europe were lower as fear and uncertainty rule for now. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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