Thursday, March 12, 2026
Heading down as the Dow fell 739 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. Buyers were nowhere to be found today as we again had a gap lower at the open. This time the selling simply continued thoughout the day and we practially closed at the low for the session. The NASDAQ was the leader and that is not a plus. The S&P 500 lost over 100 points. The short term indicators here are moving down and are not yet oversold. Economic data out tomorrow including inflation numbers but it seems all that will take a back seat to whatever is happening with the war in Iran. Any positive news there will send stocks into a sharp rally but we don't know when that will occur. For now the war is a negative for the market and that fact makes you wonder who would want to hold stocks over the weekend? It now appears that the bounce on Monday or follow through on Tuesday was the opportunity to purchase some SPY puts. Gold was off $82 on the futures. The US dollar was up again along with interest rates. The XAU dropped 9 1/2 and GDX lost 2. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX are drifting lower and are not yet completely oversold. I canceled my open order for the GDX March puts. I might move to a lower strike price but will have to see some upside first to take on this trade. I also do not want to hold anything over the weekend due to the volatility and headline risk. I still like this idea at some point ahead of the Fed but will most likely now wait until next week to attempt it. However you do not want to own any puts at the hint of a cease-fire in Iran. The trading is never easy. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which fits a down market. The short term indicators here are beginning to turn back up. There is now a short term up trend line in place on the VIX daily chart. Volatility is the rule for now. We are getting very close to a bounce point on one of the indicators we follow on the overall market and I suspect that we will see this happen relatively soon. Not sure that it will last though. It is another reason to be very careful trying the puts here. Europe and Asia were lower as players continue to head for the exits. We'll close out the week tomorrow.
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