Tuesday, March 31, 2026
A huge rally today as signs that the war with Iran is coming to a close. The Dow roared ahead by 1125 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but could stall and turn here at the zero line if this rise continues. We don't know what will happen next. Usually in extended declines or bear markets you get some kind of big rally out of nowhere and we saw that today. The key will be if we see some follow through to the upside or not. Things could just as easily head back down tomorrow. The NASDAQ led the way as it gained almost 4% and that's a plus. The S&P 500 was up 184 points in a day. The short term indicators there are now moving up. It certainly has the feel that the decline is over. We'll see. Gold was up 157 points on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU jumped 24 3/4 and GDX climbed 5 2/3. Volume was good to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX are moving higher now as well. I canceled my open order for the GDX April calls as that ship has sailed. My thinking now is to wait for a short term overbought condition and try the GDX puts again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX sank today and most of its short term indicators are moving down. The longer term up trend line for the VIX comes in at 21. What happens there will tell us whether the decline has ended or not. We are still over four points away from there though so there is room for the VIX to drop and stocks to rise. An interesting day on the street to be sure. But we are still at the mercy of the next headline. Asia lower and Europe higher again. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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