Friday, March 13, 2026
A one day downside reversal today as stocks opened higher and closed lower. The Dow lost 119 points today on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ is leading the way down and that's negative. We are expecting some kind of bounce here due to the fact that one of our indicators is in an extreme oversold spot. But like we said yesterday, who wants to own stocks going into the weekend? The S&P 500 posted a modest loss and its short term indicators are oversold. Approaching the 200 day moving average on the S&P daily chart at 6600. Perhaps we'll see a bounce there. Unless we see some type of a cease-fire for the war in Iran stocks will continue to be sold. One week left in the March option cycle. Taking on any trade next week will be fraught with risk. Gold dropped over 100 bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU fell almost 22 points, while GDX shed 5 7/8. Volume was good to the downside. GDX is now short term oversold. If we see some kind of bounce here next week, I may try the GDX March puts again for a very short term trade. My thinking is that gold is still unwinding the parabolic rise that it had and that takes time. However since the gold shares are short term oversold already, chasing the puts now is not the most solid plan. The longer term up trend line for GDX comes in at 85, with the 200 day moving average at 75. Not sure it will make it back to either of those levels here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was only down slightly today and the short term indicators are starting to trend sideways despite todays decline for stocks. Not sure what's going on there. Some of the VIX indicators are mid-range which means it could go either way. Some of the weekly indicators for the S&P 500 are not yet oversold so I would expect some more downside in the days to come. However the McClellan oscillator readings are very negative right now and that's a condition that usually doesn't last that long. I'd be surprised if we didn't see some type of bounce on Monday or Tuesday of expiration week. I'll be checking the charts as usual this weekend. Asia and Europe were lower as buyers have stepped away around the world. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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