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Thursday, July 27, 2023

We saw an incredible one day reversal to the downside as the market opened with a huge gap up to start the day and then sold off to end with a decent loss. The Dow broke its winning streak and fell 237 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. This should start the summation index moving sideways. GDP came in better than expected and provided a boost at the open. We are not sure if this is the final top for the S&P 500 on this rally but it could be. We will be hoping for a move back towards todays highs so that we can purchase the SPY August puts. It already may be too late if we continue to simply fall from here. The short term indicators for the S&P have now rolled over. There is plenty of room for them to move lower. One day doesn't make a trend though so we'll have to wait and see where we go from here. Gold got whacked as the futures fell $26 on the futures. The US dollar soared and interest rates were up. The XAU dropped over 4 3/4, while GDX lost 1 1/4. Volume was heavy to the downside. My open order for the GDX August calls got filled and now I'm not sure if I want this trade. It is already showing a loss. The short term indicators here have rolled back down with room to go lower. GDX also closed below its 50 day moving average. The potentail inverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart here looks like it is going to fail. Only a quick reversal back to the upside can save it tomorrow. That is wishful thinking. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up today and that makes sense given the market decline. The short term indicators here have started to rise. The VIX does remain below its 50 day moving average for now. Well we're in the next trade and not really feeling good about it. Plenty of time remains in the August option cycle but todays price action in the gold shares was pretty negative. We've got inflation data out tomorrow and if it comes in hot I'd expect gold to continue to fall. Perhaps the Bank of Japan can save us tonight by adjusting their interest rate policy but that's a longshot at this point. Europe was up and Asia was generally higher as well last night. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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