Thursday, July 13, 2023
Up, up and away we go as the Dow gained 47 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. Once again the overall market performed much better than the Dow as we have seen a broad based rally. Todays inflation data was tame and buyers took over from the start with a gap higher on the open. Now we are pretty short term overbought for the S&P 500 on the daily chart. That doesn't mean that we can't go higher but the pace of the rise will probably slow down. The NASDAQ is in the lead by a wide margin and that's bullish. The contracting Bollinger bands here imply this is a move that will go higher than you think. We'll enjoy the ride and see just how far it can go. Perhaps things will run up into option expiration next Friday. We are getting pretty far from the 50 week moving averages for some of the major stock indices and they are medium term overbought. But that doesn't seem to be a concern for now. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar continues to drop along with interest rates. The XAU gained 1 1/8, while GDX was up 1/3. Volume was lighter. The gold shares are short term overbought as well. I do have an open order out for the GDX August calls. My guess is that the gold shares will follow the stock market higher here. Keep in mind that we've already missed the ideal entry point for getting the calls here. We will try and get positioned on a pullback in the gold shares if we get one. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was actually up a touch today despite the overall rally for stocks. Not sure what that means. The short term indicators for the VIX are neither overbought or oversold. We are still keeping an eye on natural gas but will now be trading UNG since BOIL had a 20 to 1 reverse stock split. Europe and Asia were both up as it's a stock market party around the world. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.
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