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Tuesday, July 18, 2023

Powering higher now into options expiration week as the Dow soared 366 points on close to average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues up. The Dow led the way today. We got a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two sessions and we got that move today. Still short term overbought and staying that way for the S&P 500. Do we dare try the SPY July puts in the face of this strength? Perhaps. Some of the technical readings are at or near extremes. Obviously that can't go on forever. But with only 3 days to go in the July option cycle the risk would be way above normal. That said we might give this idea a try on strength tomorrow. However blow off tops like this can last longer than you think. Money is finding a home in stocks. Gold rallied as the futures were up $25. The US dollar was slightly higher and bonds finished little changed. The XAU rose 2 1/3, while GDX added almost 2/3. Volume was about average. I still have the open order out there for the GDX August calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that coincides with an up market. Still short term oversold here but not at extremes. So we will look over things tonight and ponder whether or not we want to take the risk on an SPY option trade with only 3 days to go. The timing in would be crucial of course but it also wouldn't matter if the market just stays higher into Fridays expiration. But I don't think that it will. Asia was mixed again and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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