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Friday, July 14, 2023

A mixed bag to end a positive week for stocks as the Dow rose 113 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative though. The summation index continues up. The overall market was weaker than the Dow but it wasn't any kind of severe decline. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 showed losses on the session. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. I'm now looking at the SPY August puts as a potential next trade. Once again the S&P is getting far away from its 50 day moving average. Plus I can still make the case for the negative RSI divergence unless it begins to move higher. I'll consider it some more over the weekend. Gold was off $4 on the futures. The US dollar had a slight gain and interest rates ticked up. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. I'm also now considering the GDX July calls next week even though it is short term overbought. I'm thinking that perhaps GDX can make it up to resistance at 33 1/2 by next Friday. The weekly chart here looks promising to the long side so the August calls are still part of the plan as well. Again, it's another set of ideas to ponder over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit with an overall lower market. Almost completely short term oversold here. Not sure what's next for the VIX. Option expiration week on tap and I'm wondering if it will have the usual positive bias. We have yet to see the summer doldrums kick in for the market and if they do it won't benefit the options speculation. That much we can be sure of. We'll go over the charts as usual this weekend and try to come up with a game plan for next week. Asia was up and Europe generally lower to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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