Friday, July 21, 2023
Expiration Friday in the summer and it felt just like it. We opened with a gap higher and then proceded to trade sideways for the rest of the session. The Dow did manage to keep its winning streak alive as it gained just a couple of points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is still moving up. The S&P 500 finished basically flat on the day. It remains short term overbought. We still favor the August puts there at some point going forward. The NASDAQ was lower but not to the degree that it declined yesterday. I'm in the cautious camp here as the Dow has gone straight up and we know that kind of price action never ends well. Gold was off $6 on the futures. The US dollar was up and interest rates held steady. The XAU and GDX were mixed with slight fractional moves on very light volume. I'm still considering the GDX August calls but if the overall market heads south it might take the gold shares with it. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and is still short term oversold. The Bollinger bands are starting to contract here again. It is another reason to be careful on the long side here because we could see a return of volatility. But we'll go over things on the weekend and take it from there. We've got the Fed next week and that should provide some market movement. Plus we've still got to sift through the ongoing earnings reports. Options premiums will be elevated since we are just moving into the August cycle. But for now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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