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Tuesday, July 25, 2023

Make it an even dozen up days in a row as the Dow gained 26 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving up. The Dow is getting about as far away form its 50 day moving average than it can get. This won't end well. However when it ends is up for debate. The NASDAQ was the leader today and that's a plus. The S&P 500 is short term overbought and staying that way. We've got the Fed tomorrow but the rate hike anticipated is already a foregone conclusion. We'll have to see how the market reacts though. Overdue for some kind of pullback to be sure. We still favor the SPY August puts and maybe should already own them. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates were a bit higher. The XAU was up 1 7/8, while GDX added 1/2. Volume remains light here. I still have an open order out for the GDX August calls. The potential inverse head and shoulders pattern on the GDX daily chart still has a chance to be valid. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished basically unchanged on the session and its technical condition remains the same. We'll see how it reacts to the Fed tomorrow as well. Stocks have been going up now for so long that I would not expect this rally to last that much longer. But markets go where they want and we cannot fight the flow of money here. Asia and Europe were generally higher overnight. We'll see what the Fed has to say and how the market responds tomorrow.

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