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Monday, July 17, 2023

Monday in the summer is what we got today as the Dow rose 76 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving up. The overall market was stronger than the Dow again and led by the NASDAQ. That's a plus. I'm still looking at the SPY puts here as the S&P 500 remains short term overbought and a case can still be made for a negative RSI divergence on the daily chart. But with only 4 days left in the July option cycle the timing would have to be spot on. I'm not sure that I can accomplish that but I'm looking at it. The short term trades are usually not in my frame of mind but there are exceptions. Gold was off five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was flat along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX finished little changed on very light volume. They were up from the worst levels on the session. My open order for the GDX August calls remains out there. Here too I'm considering the GDX July calls with only 4 days to go. NEM reports earnings on Thursday so I'll have two more days to decide if I want to take the risk. The gold shares are short term overbought here though but I still think this is a move higher worth chasing. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today which doesn't fit with higher stock prices. Still short term oversold here. Plenty of earnings on tap this week so there will be excuses for the markets to move. Although I have a couple of trade ideas I'm not exactly sure what to do. Perhaps things will get clearer as the week progresses. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly lower to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

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