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Wednesday, July 05, 2023

Just a bit lower today as the market seems on hold ahead of the employment report on Friday. The Dow fell 129 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues higher. The Dow was the underperformer today. The potential negative RSI divergence is still in place for the S&P 500. Perhaps if we see some upside in the S&P tomorrow we'll try the SPY July puts ahead of the jobs numbers. The S&P 500 is short term overbought. So the technical set up is in place if we want to try this idea. Option premiums here are still rather pricey though. Gold was off $6 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell 3 1/3, while GDX slid 7/8. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX have rolled over. Todays price action for GDX could be the snap back to the down trend line that it just penetrated. Or we could be heading back down to test the recent lows. Since we are looking for the stock market to take a break here, I'll probably wait before trying the GDX calls here again. I also am now looking at the August option cycle here. We'll consider the scenarios overnight and go from there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and touched the upper Bollinger band. The short term indicators have turned up as well. Not sure what the VIX is implying here but I'm pretty sure we'll see an outsized move for this indicator soon based on the contracting Bollinger bands. I don't think that it will be going much lower here but I could be wrong. The VIX is also pretty far from its 50 week moving average. So we have plenty of reasons to try the SPY July puts if we want to. Asia and Europe were down overnight and the US followed suit. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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