Monday, July 24, 2023
Seems like there is just no stopping the Dow as it starts off the week with a gain of 183 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues up. The Dow was the outperformer on the day. We remain short term overbought on the S&P 500. We've got plenty of earnings due this week and of course the Fed on Wednesday. 2nd quarter GDP on Thursday and inflation data on Friday. So there will be plenty of reasons for the markets to move. No time for the summer doldrums this week. I still favor the SPY August puts at some point but probably won't be getting them this week. We'll see. Gold dropped $10 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up. Both the XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume. There is a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart for GDX. The short term technical indicators there are mid-range but pointing down. I did place an open order for the GDX August calls overnight and I'm leaving it out there. The measuring objective for the head and shoulders would be 36 if the pattern pans out. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which doesn't fit with higher stock prices. Remaining short term oversold on most of the indicators here. The VIX is still bullish with its very low readings. It has remained pretty far from its 200 day moving average for weeks. I suppose we'll just watch and wait for now. Not sure what to expect with regards to the market reaction to the Fed. I can say for sure that the Dow will not go straight up forever and when it ends it probably won't be pretty. Asia was mixed and Europe flat to start the trading week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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