The bulls are now firmly in charge as the Dow gained 315 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. Down trend lines have been broken and we can declare the bear dead. Overbought and staying that way for the major averages. There are now bullish candlesticks on the monthly charts. The NASDAQ once again led the way higher. Inflation data was higher than expected but the market rallied anyway. That is why we say the market will go where it wants. The data is sometimes irrelevant when in bull or bear mode. The next stop for the S&P 500 is the 4200 level which should prove to be stronger resistance. That would be the spot to try the SPY August puts if you're so inclined. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar continued to drop and interest rates held steady. The XAU was up 1 3/4, while GDX added 1/4. Volume was good as it has been this week for the gold shares. My thinking is to try the GDX calls again on a pull back but that idea hasn't worked for months. It is a seasonally positive period for gold now though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX broke through the last area of downside resistance as it closed below the 22 level. Remaining short term oversold but that's what happens during stock market rallies and we're in one now. If the VIX reaches 20 and the S&P is at 4200 that would be the time to purchase the SPY August puts. Not for an extended amount of time but that's the logical place for a pause in the rally. Perhaps we'll get the opportunity next week. However we cannot deny the rally taking place here and will listen to what the market has to say. Plenty to look at and study over the weekend as there are still three weeks left in the August option cycle. But it appears that the tide has turned and declines can now be purchased. My thought of lower prices in the autumn was wrong at this point. Asia was lower and Europe higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Upside follow through to yesterdays great gains as the Dow rose 332 points on summer average volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. GDP came in weak again as we expected as it was a negative reading. The market didn't care as we are in summer rally mode. It certainly appears that the bear market is over but we cannot be 100% certain just yet. However the evidence is leaning that way. The Russell 2000 is right on the down trend line that began in November. The Russell led the way down and it will lead the way up. I do think that tomorrows inflation data will put a pause in the rally. I did place a couple of orders for the SPY August puts but none were filled. With the summation index heading higher the path of least resistance for stocks is up. Gold jumped $35 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up over 2 3/4, while GDX gained almost 1/2. Volume was good again to the upside for the gold shares. However with the price of gold moving up dramatically, we did not see the gold shares participate as much as they should have. Not sure what that implies. The short term indicators have turned up for the gold shares and it looks like they'll have a positive week for a change. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and is just about at the 22 level. Again along with the Russell 2000 the VIX is at the moment of truth for the end of the bear market. If the market does drop tomorrow as we anticipate, we'll wait to try the SPY puts again ahead of the employment report next week. If we rally off of the inflation data then we'll have to take a step back and reorganize. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

The Fed raised rates as expected and the market rejoiced at what it heard afterward as the Dow climbed 436 points on summer average volume. The advance/declines were around 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Chairman Powell said that we are not in a recession and the market cheered. Buyers took control from the open when we had a gap higher. There were no sellers to be found. It appears that the bear market has come to an end but we'll know for sure in the coming days. The NASDAQ was the clear outperformer and that is a plus. The short term indicators on the S&P 500 have turned back up. GDP on tap for tomorrow and inflation data on Friday. If we simply continue to go up, we'll declare the bear dead. Gold rallied on the Fed as the futures rose $15. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up almost two points while GDX gained 3/8. Volume was good to the upside for the gold shares. We finally have two days in a row for gains in the gold shares. Is this the bottom there? Time will tell. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX rolled back down and remains short term oversold. Are we still planning on trying the SPY August puts if it gets to 22? It is about a point away. 22 on the VIX is the last area of resistance to the downside. If we break through there we will also have another reason to declare the bear dead. The Russell 200 led the way down and it could lead the way back up. The down trend line in effect since November is about to be tested. If that breaks it is another reason to turn longer term bullish. The level is around 185 there. However if we get to 185 and the VIX gets to 22 that would be the ideal time to try the SPY puts. You will know rather quickly whether the trade will work or not. If we see upside follow through, we could get to these levels tomorrow. So we'll see. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Selling ahead of the Fed as the Dow dropped 228 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving up. The NASDAQ led the way lower but we didn't finish on the lows of the day. The main indices are holding above their 50 day moving averages for now. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over. Too late for the SPY August puts if this is indeed the begining of an extended decline. However with the summation index still moving up we have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls for now. Tomorrow of course could change everything. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was up and interest rates remained steady. The XAU was up more than 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was average for the summer. GDX remains oversold on the short and medium term time frames. It is also pretty far from its 50 day moving average on the daily chart. The problem is that it's remained far from the 50 day for a month without a hint of trying to get back to it. Just an occaisional one day bounce like today. I am looking for a weak GDP report on Thursday but with so many losing GDX call trades in a row I'm going to have to remain on the sidelines there. At least I suppose that I should. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX popped higher today. The short term indicators here have turned up. We did not get to the 22 level on the VIX as I had hoped to initiate the SPY August put idea. We'll wait and see if we get there before a decline really gets going. Or we are already at the beginning of the next leg down. I'm not exactly sold on that theory just yet as the market isn't selling off as strong as it did before. Patience for now. Plenty of time left in the August option cycle. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower overnight. All eyes and ears on the Fed tomorrow.

Waiting on the Fed is what we'll call it as the Dow gained 90 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The Dow led the way which isn't the most bullish scenario. We've got upside targets that we're looking for in order to try the SPY August puts. This week will probably go a long way in telling us if the bottom is in for stocks or not. I'm still thinking that we'll head down again but nothing I've done lately has worked so we'll take that under advisement. The NASDAQ was lower today. Gold was off ten bucks on the futures today. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were higher. The XAU lost 2 3/8, while GDX dropped around 3/4. Volume was good. NEM reported earnings before the bell and got absolutely crushed. My GDX September calls got stopped out for a 35% loss. I have tried to trade GDX from the long side all the way down this extended decline for the gold shares. Extremely oversold for the gold indexes and they just keep on going down. Will I try this idea again in the near future? Maybe. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today. It remains short term oversold. If it gets to 22 I will be trying the SPY August puts. It is as simple as that. At this point the market is marking time before the Fedspeak on Wednesday. Rates will go up and then we'll hear what chairman Powell has to say and the market reaction to that. GDP on Thursday and then some inflation data on Friday. So it will not be a week of the summer doldrums to be sure. Plus after the week is done we'll have a better idea of where we're going I hope. So we will watch and wait for now. Europe was up with the exception of the DAX, while Asia was lower. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A bit of selling today as the Dow fell 137 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ led the way lower today and that is not a plus. However the S&P 500 was running into the next line of resistance and it took a step back. That doesn't mean the rally is over but we'll have to keep a close eye on what follows from here. The S&P remains short term overbought. I would expect the beginning of next week to be a waiting game on the Fed announcement Wednesday. We are hoping to try the SPY August puts but we'll try and let the market tell us where it is going. Despite todays drop the trend remains up. The gold futures finished with a gain of $8 but were higher than that during the session. The US dollar was lower and interest rates took another steep drop. The XAU fell 1 1/3, while GDX shed 1/3 after being higher early on. It was a one day downside reversal for the gold shares. Volume was good going lower. My GDX September calls are still losers and will be stopped out on Monday with a repeat of todays price action. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today which doesn't fit with a down market. We almost made it to the 22 level today. That is the area on the VIX in which to try the SPY puts and we could get there Monday if stocks stage a rally. Risky it would be to try it as there is plenty of time left in the August option cycle due to the extra week involved. If the VIX breaks below 22 and closes below it next week we might declare the bear market over. There is a line of resistance for the VIX on a weekly basis that has held since November of last year. So we are at an important juncture for volatility that should be resolved in the coming week. It will tell us a lot. Plenty to think about this weekend. Europe and Asia were higher to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The upside continues as the Dow gained 162 points on summer average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. Plenty of buyers as the bulls are now in control. During the decline we usually got last hour sellers. Now we get last hour buyers. The NASDAQ continues to out perform and that's a plus. Most of the major stock averages are now short term overbought. 4020 looks to be the next line of resistance for the S&P 500. Is the bear market over? It sure feels like it but we'll know for sure as time moves on. We are heading for a seasonally weak period for stocks. But with the summation index heading higher it's kind of hard to go against that. Gold was up $15 on the futures. The US dollar dropped along with interest rates. The XAU was up 1 1/3, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was light. My GDX September calls didn't get stopped out today and are still losers. Not sure why gold rose today but it looks like just an oversold bounce. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued to fall and is getting closer to our magic number of 22. It remains short term oversold. If and when the VIX hits 22 we will be taking a shot with the SPY August puts. If the VIX makes it through the 22 level and stays there, we'll declare the bear market over. So we'll see. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Continuing to the upside as the Dow gained 47 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation is moving up and just passed the zero line. The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way. The bulls have now taken control. Some of the major stock indexes have broken through the top of their Bollinger bands. It appears that the contraction of the bands will produce a decent rally that started a week ago. We'll see what happens at the next resistance. Gold dropped $15 on the futures and closed below $1700. The US dollar was higher and interest rates held steady. The XAU fell 2 7/8, while GDX shed 3/4. Volume was light. My GDX September calls are now losers and should be stopped out tomorrow on follow through selling. My concerns on being early for this trade have been confirmed. Nobody is interested in owning gold right now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX fell and managed to close below its 200 day moving average. Short term oversold here but the VIX stays that way during rallies. If it makes it to 22 we'll be buying some SPY August puts. For now we'll just have to watch and wait. Earnings have been coming in OK so far as expectations were lowered beforehand. Asia higher and Europe lower in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Now it looks like a summer rally as the Dow soared 754 points on summer average volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is now moving up. We have made it past the first line of resistance for the S&P. The next test arrives at the 4000 level. Small stocks have closed above their 50 day moving averages. The bulls are trying to take back control of the game. We are getting short term overbought but not completely there yet. Looking from a bearish perspective, todays rally sprung up out of nowhere. That is classic bear market activity. We'll have to see how far it goes and how long it lasts. Gold was slightly lower today. The US dollar was down but interest rates increased. A mixed picture to be sure. The XAU was up 1 1/4, while GDX gained 1/4. The gold shares followed the overall market today. Volume was light. My GDX September calls are still right where I bought them. Light volume equals no interest as I am early for this trade in my view. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and remains above its 200 day moving average. Short term overbought but it can stay that way during stock rallies. Bollinger bands still contracting here. They've also contracted on some of the major stcok indices and prices are at the top band. So I think it's safe to say that we are going to see prices move up promptly or we've got the next decline set up. After todays price action it looks like things are going to go higher. The bear market could be over but it's not set in stone. We'll know more as the week unfolds. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll see if there is some upside follow through tomorrow.

We had a one day reversal to the downside as the market opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 215 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. Sideways could be the description of the summer rally so far too. The morning started promising for the bulls but it fizzled out. I still think that we'll see higher prices this week. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are mid-range. The Bollinger bands here are starting to contract, which implies a big move coming one way or the other. The TRAN finished positive. Some indices are challenging their 50 day moving averages. Gold was higher early but faded and only had a slight gain. The US dollar was lower and interest rates dipped slightly. The XAU was up 1 3/8 but GDX only managed to gain 1/8. Volume was light. My GDX September calls are right where I bought them. If the market fades here the gold shares will probably follow. I'm looking for higher equity prices this week but what do I know? Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX bumped up as the 200 day moving average is proving to be resistance to go lower for now. If the VIX can get down to 22 we'd feel good about trying the SPY puts. For now it's just another trading day in the summer as we wait for the Fed next week. Earnings for the 2nd quarter are just getting started. Europe and Asia were higher to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The summer rally is back as the Dow gained 658 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is back to tracking sideways. We had a gap up at the open and then more buying at the close. Retail sales came in better than anticipated. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 along with the other major stock indices have turned back up. The first target for the S&P will be a down trend line at 3910 and then the 50 day moving average at 3940. That is assuming todays price action was not something option expiration related. There is the chance that the longer term decline is over for good but we'll find out more as the summer moves along. Gold was off a couple bucks. The US dollar was lower and interest rates dipped slightly. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. My GDX September calls are back to what I paid for them. It appears that I'm early on this trade. Todays retail sales data also puts in question my view of a negative 2nd quarter GDP rport. GDX does remain both short and medium term oversold so at least the trade has that going for it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped over 2 points and is close to the 200 day moving average. The short term indicators have rolled back down and that implies higher stock prices in the near term. 22 on the VIX is the number that we're looking for to try the SPY puts again. That is the final resistance trend line there. A break below that number would say the bear market is over according to the VIX. Plenty of work to do this weekend to try and figure out where we go from here. I'm looking for a near term rally but I suppose earnings will have a lot to say about that. A week and a half until the Fed. Europe was higher and Asia mixed to close out the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Once again we had a gap lower at the open and spent the rest of the day making up lost ground. The Dow fell 142 points on what is now considered average volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is rolling over. The NASDAQ eeked out a small gain. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are trying to turn back up. Producer inflation data was hotter than expected but there was no follow through selling after the open. So the market is trying its best not to collapse here. I'm not sure if it means a rally is coming or if it's just option expiration week related. We'll know as time moves on. I am still looking for lower prices in the autumn but I could be wrong. Gold dropped around thirty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 4 3/4, while GDX dropped 1 1/8. Volume was heavy to the downside. Perhaps this is the final washout for the gold shares. I did place an order for the GDX September calls overnight in case we got a huge drop. We did and the order was filled. It is showing a small profit. The stop loss order is in. This trade seems like the proverbial catch a falling knife scenario. The gold shares are overblown to the downside. The Gold/XAU ratio is very high. GDX is both short and medium term oversold. I might be early on this particular idea. But I believe that after the Fed meeting we'll get the 2nd quarter GDP report which will show a negative print. If that occurs I think the dollar will start to fall and gold will see a comeback. We're still a couple of weeks away but when I placed the order last night I really did not think it would get filled. However the gold shares gapped lower like the overall stock market and now we're in the trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower again today despite the drop in stocks. Once again I'm not sure what that means but the daily chart looks like it wants to go lower. The short term indicators for the VIX are turning back down. This would imply higher stock prices going forward. We'll see. Europe and Asia were down with the exception of Japan. We'll see how expiration Friday goes tomorrow.

Inflation came in hotter than expected at over 9% but the markets held up pretty well. The Dow fell 208 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. There was a big gap down at the open but no follow through as we traded back and forth for the rest of the day. The Dow was the under performer. When the market holds up in the face of bad news, that's usually a bullish sign. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are still pointing down at mid-range levels. I'm not saying we are going to get some kind of strong rally here but I don't things are about to fall apart again either. I do think that we'll be marking time until the Fed meeting in a couple weeks. The summer doldrums could show up next week. Gold was up $7 on the futures as it made a comeback today as well. The US dollar was slightly lower while interest rates were mixed. All in all we did not see big sustained market reactions to the inflation report. The XAU was up 2 2/3, while GDX rose 1/2. Volume was good for a change. I'm still considering the August or September GDX calls since the gold shares are so blown out to the downside. However the longer term RSI signal does not look like it will happen. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX bounced around and ended the day lower which doesn't fit with a down market. Not sure what to make of that. The Bollinger bands on the VIX are starting to contract which implies a big move coming there one way or the other. Still more economic data to sift through the remaining 2 days this week along with the start of earnings season. I'm on the sidelines for now. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower in Wednesdays trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Selling ahead of tomorrows inflation data as the Dow fell 192 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index has stalled. The short term technical indicators have rolled over for the major stock indices. The 50 day moving averages have proven to be resistance so far. Tomorrows price action should tell us where we're heading in the near term. The recent light volume really doesn't give us confidence one way or the other. We'll see what the reaction is tomorrow and go from there. Gold dropped another 8 bucks on the futures. The US dollar was flat and interest rates declined. The XAU fell almost 2 points while GDX lost 3/8. Volume remains light. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up again today and that fits a down market. There's plenty of room to go higher on the daily indicators here. The VIX seems to be telling us that a decline is here and it will continue. But the market goes where it wants. 3 days to go in the July option cycle. Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Negative price action to begin option expiration week as the Dow fell 164 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is now barely moving higher. We were hoping for the market to hold up in front of Wednesdays inflation data but that isn't going to happen. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to roll over. Today the NASDAQ led the way down. We are going to learn a lot about where we're going this week. If things can hold in there, we'll be seeing higher prices moving forward. But if we drop this week it's probably the start of another wave down and the bear market will continue. Stay tuned. Gold dropped a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were lower. The XAU fell 1 1/3, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was light. I'm still looking at the August and September GDX calls. Waiting on the longer term signal for this idea. May or may not occur. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX popped up and the short term indicators here turned back up. My feeling is that the VIX could go either way here but we'll see. 2nd quarter earnings start this week and that will be another driver of stock prices. For now it's all about the inflation report on Wednesday. The recent light volume is both a sign of summer trading and the lack of conviction among the players. Europe was down and so was Asia with the exception of Japan. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Friday in the summertime describes todays market action. The Dow fell 46 points on pretty light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is moving up. The jobs report came in better than expected and we bounced around for the session. The NASDAQ posted a slight gain. The S&P 500 is barely short term overbought. The light volume says there were not a lot of sellers. There is a down trend line and the 50 day moving average at around 3970. That would be the spot to try the SPY puts but there is only a week left in the July option cycle. So the risk would be pretty high. If the S&P does rally to the 50 day ahead of Wednesdays inflation data perhaps we'll give that idea a try. We'll double check things over the weekend. Gold was flat today. The US dollar was slightly lower and came off of the best levels for the session. Interest rates continued their climb. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume. Light volume was the theme for the day. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped even though we didn't see a rally for stocks. Not sure what that means. Closer here now to the 200 day moving average resistance. Maybe things will somehow set up for a short term trade next week. We'll check the charts over the weekend and try to come up with a viable game plan for option expiration week. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The summar rally continues as the Dow jumped 346 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ leading the way is bullish. Getting short term overbought but not there yet. The next goal will be to make it past 50 day moving averages for the stock indices. If we keep moving up like today, that won't be a problem. There is other overhead resistance but one step at a time. Could the bear market be over? Yes, there is that possibility but I'm holding out for lower prices in the autumn. We'll let the markets dictate the action and right now it's for higher prices. A rally ahead of tomorrows jobs report says whatever we get there shouldn't be a problem. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was steady and interest rates rose. The XAU was up almost 2 points, while GDX gained 1/3. Volume was light. Still waiting on the longer term buy signal for GDX here. May or may not occur. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX dropped and closed below the first line of resistance. This implys more rally for stocks. It is short term oversold now but in rallies the VIX remains that way. Plenty of room before the next resistance line at 21 but it will have to get through the 200 day moving average at 24 before that. My guess is that we're in a bear market rally until things turn back down again. With the caveat that the decline could be over and the bottom is in. It is not a clear cut picture either way at the moment for the longer term prognosis. The recent resilience of the small stocks is a boost for the bulls. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll close out the first week in July tomorrow.

Moving higher today as the Dow gained 70 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trying to move higher. Waiting on the jobs report for now. The S&P 500 is stalling at the first down trend line but I believe that we'll make it through. Not yet short term overbought here. Gold dropped another $25. The US dollar continued higher and interest rates rose. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume. They both finished well up from the lows of the day. We did not get the RSI buy signal we were looking for yet but today could be the low for GDX. We'll know as time goes on. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits an up market. My feeling is that we are on the verge of an upside break out for the major stock indices. I do believe that things are in place for that. We'll know within the next couple of days as some indices are resting right below their first lines of resistance. Europe was higher and Asia lower overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

We had a huge gap down at the open but the market clawed its way back for the rest of the session. The Dow fell 129 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is tracking sideways. The NASDAQ was the clear out performer and the S&P 500 made it back to the black as well. I am considering getting some SPY July calls if we get some weakness again before Fridays employment report. My thinking is that we are going to get through the first down trend line for the S&P and then head to the next one at around 4000. It might be too late though as the call option premiums have already moved up. Gold got clobbered today and lost its near term support at $1790. The precious metal futures dropped $35. The US dollar was higher yet interest rates continue to fall. The XAU fell six points, while GDX shed 1 1/4. Volume was good to the downside. There is a longer term RSI indicator for GDX that is almost down to where we can anticipate a bounce. If the indicator gets there, we will try the near term GDX calls. Hasn't happened yet but 2 or 3 more down days for the gold shares will get us there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but came back down from the top of todays range. This is implying a lower VIX going forward which would fit with a near term rally for stocks. The VIX is short term oversold here though. The out performance of the small stocks here is a change from what we've seen. It leads me to believe that the summer rally is still in place. The summation index trying to turn around now is another factor to consider. We also have a bottom above a bottom on the daily stock index charts. The fact that todays decline didn't hold is another plus for the bulls near term. Asia higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on the evenings headlines.

A bullish start to the month of July as the Dow gained 321 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. We now have the potential to continue the summer rally as there are bottoms above bottoms on the S&P 500 daily chart. The short term indicators there have also turned back up. Perhaps this time we can make it back to the first down trend line that comes in at around 4000. We'll have to wait and see what happens but I'm looking for higher prices going forward. Gold was off a buck but did bounce from the lows of the session at around $1790. The US dollar was higher and interest rates continued to drop. The XAU gained 3 points, while GDX was up 3/4. Volume was good here to the upside as buyers finally showed up for the gold shares. Could the decline here be finally over? It is possible with both the short and medium term time frames oversold. I am looking at the August and September GDX calls. I'm not in any hurry though as the confidence level of my ideas is certainly at a low. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped on the rally and that makes perfect sense. Still not through the first line of resistance at 26 but another day like today would do it. That would fit in with the summer rally theme that we are looking for. The short term indicators for the VIX are getting to short term oversold though. I'll mention the fact that bonds have made quite a move higher in the past couple of weeks yet interest rates are supposed to keep increasing. That does not fit the normal relationship and something will have to give one way or the other going forward. A long summer weekend and plenty of charts to go over as well. Perhaps we'll come up with an idea for the remaining two weeks in the July option cycle. Asia was lower and Europe higher to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.