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Friday, June 10, 2022

Well I guess it wasn't too late for the SPY puts after all. The Dow fell 880 points today on good volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative again. The summation index is now moving lower. The inflation data came in hotter than expected and the market opened with a gap down. We bounced around the rest of the session and closed near the lows for the day. The NASDAQ led the way lower. It looks like we'll be testing the May lows for the S&P 500 next week. Not completely oversold on the short term indicators there. Looks like we'll be heading lower near term and we have the Fed next week to contend with. Perhaps the S&P will finally close in bear market territory. Gold rallied on the news eventually and the futures were up over twenty bucks. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. That did not stop gold from rising and that is a change from recent behavior. The XAU was up 5 3/4, while GDX soared 1 1/2. Volume was heavy to the upside. The daily candlestick chart for GDX now has a bullish engulfing pattern on it and the short term indicators are moving up. This appears to be the beginning of a move higher that I think is worth chasing. I'll now be looking at getting some GDX July calls on any weakness next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved up but did finish off of the highs for the session. The short term indicators here still have a lot of room to go up. If they continue to move higher the stock market will continue to move lower. The medium term signals on the VIX are also starting to turn back up as well. If this continues we'll see new lows in the major indices. That appears to be where we are headed. A week left in the June option cycle as next week should be a doozy. Plenty to ponder this weekend. Europe and Asia were both down to finish the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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