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Monday, June 13, 2022

Down we go as stocks got crushed again today. The Dow fell 876 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 17 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower and about to cross the zero line again to the downside for the 3rd time since the beginning of the year. This type of action is normally unheard of. Everything is being sold as the S&P 500 just closed with a loss of over 20% from the top which is the common definition of a bear market. That head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart is valid and the measuring objective of 3600 is in sight. At this rate it feels like we'll go lower than that. The NASDAQ was off over 500 points today and led the way lower. There doesn't appear to be any relief in sight. We'll get producer prices inflation data tomorrow and then the Fed on Wednesday. No positive bias for option expiration week this time around unless we see some kind of relief rally. However the decline seems to be feeding on itself. Gold got clobbered today as well with the futures off fifty bucks. The US dollar soared along with interest rates. The XAU fell 9 1/8, while GDX lost 2 1/8. Volume was heavy. The GDX daily candlestick chart that looked so bullish on Friday now has a different tone. However I did place an order for the GDX July calls this morning and it eventually got filled. It somehow held its value despite GDX continuing to drop and the price on the calls is where I purchased them. This is a dangerous trade even though it has a lot of time left. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX took off today and closed above the 34 level. Not quite yet short term overbought here on the techncial indicators. No doubt that it's going to get there. The question is just how high is this indicator going to go? We are obviously in a market free fall. There is no good news on the horizon that can be seen right now. Margin calls are forcing the selling of whatever you have to cover. The US dollar is finding buyers but the other usual safe havens of gold and bonds aren't. The next couple of days could get intense as inflation and the Fed meeting take center stage. It doesn't look like the Fed can save things this time around. The carnage is worldwide as Asia and Europe sold off to begin the trading week. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

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