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Wednesday, June 15, 2022

Volatility was the name of the game today as the Dow gained 303 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. The Fed raised rates 3/4 of a point and the markets cheered. Counter intuitive to be sure but the bulls will take the rally. We did get a signal again last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move and we saw it today. The NASDAQ led the way up and that's a plus. Despite todays gains the S&P 500 remains short term oversold. We're still pretty far from the 50 day moving average here. Short covering today no doubt as there are still many questions to be answered regarding where we go from here. Gold bounced twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. None of that makes any sense with higher rates from the Fed but this is what markets are made of. The XAU was up 1 1/4, wiht GDX gaining almost 1/2. Volume was average. My GDX July calls are still losers. The daily chart for GDX is still oversold and shows a potential positive divergence on the RSI. So perhaps I can break even on this trade but I wouldn't count on it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX sunk today and the short term indicators turned lower. It might mean that the decline is over but I'm not sure yet. Another positive day like today would be a step in the right direction for the bulls. However todays price action had the tone of a relief rally more than anything else. Sure we can build on it but that remains to be seen for now. Only a couple of days left this week and Friday is options expiration. More volatility would be no surprise. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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