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Friday, June 17, 2022

A relatively quiet expiration Friday as the Dow fell 38 points on extremely heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving down. It was a mixed bag with both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 higher. The S&P remains short term oversold so I do believe that some kind of bounce is coming. We're still waiting for the 3600 level there and then we'll decide what to do after that. Other indices have lower measuring targets for their head and shoulders tops so we could go into wait and see mode. Higher interest rates don't bode well for equities going forward either. But the market goes where it wants and we're very oversold on many time frames. Gold dropped ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was back up today along with interest rates. The XAU lost almost 2 points, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was light. My GDX July calls are back to losers as we roll into the July option cycle. This trade might have a chance if we see some upside next week. But the fundamentals for gold are negative for now just like the stock market. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX headed back down today and the daily candlestick chart looks like it wants to go lower. That would support some kind of bounce for stocks if it occurs. The short term indicators for the VIX are trying to roll over. Summer is approaching and we'll have to see if the doldrums set in or the volatility remains. We'll also be looking for some kind of summer rally. Trading could get thin as players go on vacation and there is no compelling reason to buy stocks at the moment. We'll be going over all the charts this weekend as the work must be done regardless. Europe and Asia ended the week mixed. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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