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Tuesday, June 28, 2022

Continuing lower as the Dow fell 491 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were a bit better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving up but barely now. We were hoping things would hold up before the inflation data on Thursday but it was not to be. Once again the NASDAQ led the way lower and that's a negative. The S&P 500 didn't make it back to the near term down trend line again. The short term techncial indicators here are starting to roll over and they didn't make it to overbought. Maybe we'll get some good news and things will turn back up because that would be the shortest summer rally on record. Gold was off a few bucks. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were steady. The XAU lost 3 1/4, while GDX shed almost 2/3. Volume here remains light. I sold the GDX July calls that I had for a 95% loss. The goal for the trading year was to not take big losses like that and I failed. There is no point in having trading rules if you can't follow them. The first half of the year has been an abysmal effort with many more losses than gains on the trading front. This particular GDX trade never had a chance as it was a loser practically from the get go. I'm not sure why the gold shares are doing so poorly as some indicators are flashing buy signals for them. However on the daily chart GDX has just achieved the death cross, with the 50 day moving average crossing below the 200 day. I am tempted to try the GDX September calls here but perhaps the better alternative is to take a step back and regroup for the second half of the year. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX bounced today on the decline in stocks. The short term indicators here are starting to turn back up which would imply more selling in the near term. Not sure what to expect here as the VIX didn't make it back to the near term resistance line. Perhaps things are weaker than they appear. I'm not sure and it looks like I'll be on the sidelines for now. Europe and Asia were higher. We'll see if they follow the US lower tonight.

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