Friday, June 24, 2022
The summer rally is on as the Dow climbed 823 points on extremely heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is now moving up. The S&P 500 has already made it past the 3900 level. The next line of resistance comes in just above 4000. That will probably more of a test to get through. There is a chance that the low is in for the downturn that began in the begining of the year. We did not make it down to 3600 on the S&P but did get pretty close. I'm still in the camp that we'll be heading back down once this rally runs its course but I could be wrong. The small stocks are leading the way here and that's a plus. The NASDAQ is on the verge of breaking a resistance line from the beginning of April on the daily chart. There are still way too many bears out there at the moment. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU was up 3 1/2, while GDX gained 3/4. Volume was light. I did place a limit order to sell my GDX July calls but it wasn't filled. I'll try again on Monday. This trade will be a loser it is just a matter of by how much. For now the 29 level has held for GDX and it is the logical spot to try the GDX calls. However with a losing trade in hand I will probably sit it out for attempting GDX here again from the long side. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and we're getting closer to the near term resistance line at 26. That would be the spot to try the SPY July puts but with the turning of the summation index back up I'm not so sure that would be a good idea. Especially if the NASDAQ breaks above its down trend line from April. I get the feeling that we are in for a decent rally here as the market has already moved up quite well. Not sure what to make of the volume numbers today. But we'll have to see where it goes from here. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual. Europe and Asia were both higher to finish out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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