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Thursday, June 09, 2022

No need to wait for tomorrows inflation data as the Dow sold off to the tune of 638 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to stall. Buyers disappeared in the last couple of hours. The NASDAQ led the way down. The S&P 500 did not make it back to the down trend line like we were looking for. The short term indicators for the S&P have rolled over after today. The sideways pattern here broke to the downside. Too late for the June SPY puts now in my opinion. Tomorrow should be interesting. Gold was off five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up a bit. The XAU dropped about 5 points, while GDX slid 1 1/4. Volume was average. If GDX makes it down to the 29 level I'll probably try the August or September calls there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX climbed today with the drop in stocks. The short term indicators have turned up but they remain overbought. If this is just the beginning of a VIX rise, stocks will be going a lot lower. The VIX does remain below its 50 day moving average for now. But it looks like we're heading lower from here and perhaps the TRAN was the canary in the coal mine. The major averages remain in a tops beneath tops and bottoms below bottoms configuration. That implys bearish outcomes and lower prices going forward. However we also know to expect anything in this game so things could just as easily turn around tomorrow. But I doubt it. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see how markets react to the inflation report tomorrow.

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