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Wednesday, June 01, 2022

We had a one day reversal to the downside as the market opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 176 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving up. The S&P 500 led the way lower today. Still short term overbought for the S&P. The declines so far this week seem like a digestion of the recent gains more so than a resumption of the overall down trend. We'll know more as the week goes on and we get the reaction to the employment report on Friday. No SPY trades in mind for now. Gold finished relatively flat on the session. The US dollar and interest rates were higher again. The XAU was up a point and GDX added 1/4. Volume was light. GDX remains more overbought than oversold on the short term indicators. Remaining patient here for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was actually lower today which doesn't fit a down market. It also closed below the 50 day moving average. It is short term oversold but the daily candlestick chart here looks like it wants to go lower. It will certainly be something to keep an eye on for the rest of the week. Waiting on Fridays jobs report for now. The economic data out today was mixed. My thinking is that we'll see higher to sideways prices for a while to get the summation index back above the zero line and positive once again. That's my best guess at the moment. After that, who knows? I'm still in the camp for lower prices later this summer with the same target of 3600 for the S&P. However if we make it through the 200 day moving average and the final down trend line for the S&P, that theory will be proven wrong. Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

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