Thursday, June 30, 2022
Lower to finish the month of June as the Dow fell 253 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trending sideways. The inflation data came in where expected but we opened with a big gap down. The market spent the rest of the session trying to recover and did an admiral job as we did not finish anywhere near the lows of the day. I'm thinking that we will move higher from here. The NASDAQ led the way down but again, it wasn't as bad as it could have been. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are still mid-range. One day left for trading this week before a long summer holiday weekend. My guess is that tomorrow will be a light volume affair. Gold dropped ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates continued their drop. The XAU shed 4 2/3, while GDX lost over a point. Volume was average. The gold shares are blown out to the downside and the support at 29 for GDX did not hold. Both the daily and weekly charts for GDX are oversold. GDX will be closing below the 200 week moving average. Oversold and staying that way for the gold shares. Yes I'm looking at the GDX September calls but there is absolutely no interest right now in owning any gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher today as it clings to the 50 day moving average. I'm not getting any ideas which way the VIX is going to go. The resistance line at 26 that began in April is still in place. The first half of the year was rough for the bulls as we've entered a bear market. How much longer and lower is now the question. There is a chance that it is over as we came close to the 3600 measuring objective of the head and shoulders top put in on the S&P 500. However I remain in the camp for lower prices going forward into the fall. I could be wrong and was quite a lot when it came to trading in the first half. We are in the process of regrouping and trying to come out with better second half results. Europe and Asia were lower with the exception of China. We'll close out the week tomorrow.
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