Lower to finish the month of June as the Dow fell 253 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trending sideways. The inflation data came in where expected but we opened with a big gap down. The market spent the rest of the session trying to recover and did an admiral job as we did not finish anywhere near the lows of the day. I'm thinking that we will move higher from here. The NASDAQ led the way down but again, it wasn't as bad as it could have been. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are still mid-range. One day left for trading this week before a long summer holiday weekend. My guess is that tomorrow will be a light volume affair. Gold dropped ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates continued their drop. The XAU shed 4 2/3, while GDX lost over a point. Volume was average. The gold shares are blown out to the downside and the support at 29 for GDX did not hold. Both the daily and weekly charts for GDX are oversold. GDX will be closing below the 200 week moving average. Oversold and staying that way for the gold shares. Yes I'm looking at the GDX September calls but there is absolutely no interest right now in owning any gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher today as it clings to the 50 day moving average. I'm not getting any ideas which way the VIX is going to go. The resistance line at 26 that began in April is still in place. The first half of the year was rough for the bulls as we've entered a bear market. How much longer and lower is now the question. There is a chance that it is over as we came close to the 3600 measuring objective of the head and shoulders top put in on the S&P 500. However I remain in the camp for lower prices going forward into the fall. I could be wrong and was quite a lot when it came to trading in the first half. We are in the process of regrouping and trying to come out with better second half results. Europe and Asia were lower with the exception of China. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

It was simply a day of hanging around as the Dow gained 82 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The move higher in the summation index has stalled. We'll get some inflation data tomorrow and my guess is that we'll move one way or the other on that. It's also the end of the month etc. so there will be that to contend with as well. The NASDAQ along with the S&P 500 finished about unchanged. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are mid-range so we could go either way. My guess is that we'll be heading lower on the inflation data but I do not have any SPY puts to back that up. Gold was off a couple bucks. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were lower. The XAU fell 1 1/4, while GDX lost 3/8. Volume remains light here. The gold shares have under performed the precious metal by quite a lot lately. Not sure if it's an end of the quarter situation or what. The Gold/XAU ratio is the highest that it has been in quite some time. Either gold has to begin to drop or the gold shares have to rally to alleviate that situation. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today as it is hovering around its 50 day moving average. Tomorrow should get things going one way or the other. I think most of the action will take place on Thursday as we have a long holiday weekend on the horizon and traders will most likely be leaving early on Friday. Europe and Asia were both down overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Continuing lower as the Dow fell 491 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were a bit better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving up but barely now. We were hoping things would hold up before the inflation data on Thursday but it was not to be. Once again the NASDAQ led the way lower and that's a negative. The S&P 500 didn't make it back to the near term down trend line again. The short term techncial indicators here are starting to roll over and they didn't make it to overbought. Maybe we'll get some good news and things will turn back up because that would be the shortest summer rally on record. Gold was off a few bucks. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were steady. The XAU lost 3 1/4, while GDX shed almost 2/3. Volume here remains light. I sold the GDX July calls that I had for a 95% loss. The goal for the trading year was to not take big losses like that and I failed. There is no point in having trading rules if you can't follow them. The first half of the year has been an abysmal effort with many more losses than gains on the trading front. This particular GDX trade never had a chance as it was a loser practically from the get go. I'm not sure why the gold shares are doing so poorly as some indicators are flashing buy signals for them. However on the daily chart GDX has just achieved the death cross, with the 50 day moving average crossing below the 200 day. I am tempted to try the GDX September calls here but perhaps the better alternative is to take a step back and regroup for the second half of the year. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX bounced today on the decline in stocks. The short term indicators here are starting to turn back up which would imply more selling in the near term. Not sure what to expect here as the VIX didn't make it back to the near term resistance line. Perhaps things are weaker than they appear. I'm not sure and it looks like I'll be on the sidelines for now. Europe and Asia were higher. We'll see if they follow the US lower tonight.

Some selling to begin the week as the Dow fell 62 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving up. Back and forth again today with no real conviction either way. The NASDAQ led the way lower. Were getting to the first down trned lines for the major indices so some hesitiation is not out of the question. We are hoping the market holds up ahead of Thursdays inflation data so that we may try the SPY July puts. That will also mark the end of the month, 2nd quarter and the 1st half of the year. Gold was off six bucks on the futures. The dollar was lower and interest rates higher. The XAU had a fractional gain and GDX had a fractional loss. Volume was on the light side. I'm still holding the GDX July calls that I have but I don't know why. They are dead in the water and will not be coming back. Should have dumped them long ago but when you don't follow the rules, you pay the price. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit with a down market. Getting close to the resistance line at 26. If the VIX gets through there the rally will continue and if not we'll see some selling. The short term indicators are close to mid-range so it's anyones guess which way it goes here. My thinking is that we'll see some selling on the inflation data Thursday but it's only Monday. Asia was higher and Europe mixed to begin the trading week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The summer rally is on as the Dow climbed 823 points on extremely heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is now moving up. The S&P 500 has already made it past the 3900 level. The next line of resistance comes in just above 4000. That will probably more of a test to get through. There is a chance that the low is in for the downturn that began in the begining of the year. We did not make it down to 3600 on the S&P but did get pretty close. I'm still in the camp that we'll be heading back down once this rally runs its course but I could be wrong. The small stocks are leading the way here and that's a plus. The NASDAQ is on the verge of breaking a resistance line from the beginning of April on the daily chart. There are still way too many bears out there at the moment. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU was up 3 1/2, while GDX gained 3/4. Volume was light. I did place a limit order to sell my GDX July calls but it wasn't filled. I'll try again on Monday. This trade will be a loser it is just a matter of by how much. For now the 29 level has held for GDX and it is the logical spot to try the GDX calls. However with a losing trade in hand I will probably sit it out for attempting GDX here again from the long side. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and we're getting closer to the near term resistance line at 26. That would be the spot to try the SPY July puts but with the turning of the summation index back up I'm not so sure that would be a good idea. Especially if the NASDAQ breaks above its down trend line from April. I get the feeling that we are in for a decent rally here as the market has already moved up quite well. Not sure what to make of the volume numbers today. But we'll have to see where it goes from here. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual. Europe and Asia were both higher to finish out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Moving higher today as the Dow was up 194 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trying to turn back up. It was a back and forth session but we did finish in the black. The NASDAQ continues to be the leader and that's a plus. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are trying to move higher. I still think that we're on our way to the 3900 level in the near term. If we get there we'll consider the SPY July puts. Gold dropped ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates continued to fall. The XAU lost 4 1/2, while GDX fell 1 1/8. Volume was good to the downside. My GDX July calls are dead. I didn't even follow my own rules with a stop loss order. Pitiful. Not a lot of money involved but still. Probably will sell them tomorrow before the weekend. GDX closed below the 29 level, which is where I should have waited it to get to. But it loos like 29 will not hold as the gold shares are extremely weak for some reason. We are getting some blown out oversold readings for the gold complex relating to the gold shares. However the stocks here keep selling. I do think that it is time to buy GDX but with a losing trade in hand I will most likely remain on the sidelines. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was actually a bit higher today which certainly doesn't fit with an up market. Not sure what to make of that. Still above the 50 day moving average on the VIX. The line of resistance to move lower comes in at 26 and the VIX is currently at 29. Asia higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

We opened with a gap lower, traded higher for most of the session and then dropped again in the final hour. The Dow fell 47 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is trying to turn back up. Still short term oversold for the S&P 500. The market had to deal with the Fed speaking to Congress today and there were no new revelations. I'm still looking for the decline to take a break here and the S&P to trade up to at least the 3900 level. Oversold for too long in my humble opinion. Gold was up a buck on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates dropped. The XAU fell 2 1/2, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was average. No interest in owning the gold shares. My GDX July calls dropped again and I've already got too big a loss on this idea. GDX would have to turn around in a hurry and the daily chart looks like it's about to move lower. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and the short term indicators imply that it has plenty of room to go down. Whether or not that occurs is another question. The market has a summer feel to it already but not the doldrums just yet. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see how it goes on Thursday.

The first day of summer and a rally begins. The Dow gained 641 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but another day like today would start to change things. Monday was a market holiday so we'll have a short trading week. It's 2 days in a row up for the S&P and the NASDAQ. Most likely some kind of bottom is in place. The short term technical indicators for the S&P are still oversold so we've got room to move higher. We're still pretty far from the 50 day moving average. Resistance begins to come in at around 3900 and then the down trend line after that. But perhaps we can get some break from the selling in the near term. Gold dropped $8 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU was up 1 3/8, while GDX added 1/8. Volume was light as there is not interest in the gold shares. My GDX July calls are solid losers and perhaps I should just take the 50% loss right here. I'll give it until the end of the week so see if they come to life. Doubtful. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and we're still on the overbought side here in the short term. Plenty of room for the indicators to move lower. It was a great start to the week in the stock market for the bulls. We did get blown out to the downside on most indicators last week. Never did get to 3600 on the S&P but got close which is the level I'm still looking for at some point. But for now we'll be looking at today as the start of some kind of summer rally back up to the resistance zones. After that, who knows? Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A relatively quiet expiration Friday as the Dow fell 38 points on extremely heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving down. It was a mixed bag with both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 higher. The S&P remains short term oversold so I do believe that some kind of bounce is coming. We're still waiting for the 3600 level there and then we'll decide what to do after that. Other indices have lower measuring targets for their head and shoulders tops so we could go into wait and see mode. Higher interest rates don't bode well for equities going forward either. But the market goes where it wants and we're very oversold on many time frames. Gold dropped ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was back up today along with interest rates. The XAU lost almost 2 points, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was light. My GDX July calls are back to losers as we roll into the July option cycle. This trade might have a chance if we see some upside next week. But the fundamentals for gold are negative for now just like the stock market. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX headed back down today and the daily candlestick chart looks like it wants to go lower. That would support some kind of bounce for stocks if it occurs. The short term indicators for the VIX are trying to roll over. Summer is approaching and we'll have to see if the doldrums set in or the volatility remains. We'll also be looking for some kind of summer rally. Trading could get thin as players go on vacation and there is no compelling reason to buy stocks at the moment. We'll be going over all the charts this weekend as the work must be done regardless. Europe and Asia ended the week mixed. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It was back to the downside today as the Dow dropped 741 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 9 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The NASDAQ led the way down. The S&P 500 got close to the 3600 level that we've been looking for. It remains short term oversold. It didn't close on the lows for the day for a change. Buyers are scarce. There is a worldwide heading for the exits in stocks as rates rise and inflation is the main concern. We are blown out to the downside again and some kind of relief rally is overdue and I mean for more than a day. The S&P remains pretty far from its 50 day moving average. Expiration Friday on tap and who knows what will go on there? Gold attracted buyers as the futures rose $35. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. Gold and bonds finally got a flight to safety bid. The XAU was up 1 3/8, while GDX added 1/2. Volume was good here. The short term indicators for GDX have turned back up. Maybe we can get a rally going but the gold shares should have done better with gold up $35. Perhaps we can blame that on the overall market decline today. My GDX July calls made it back to break even. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved back up but did finish off of the highs for the session. Not sure what to expect next here. Remaining short term overbought on the VIX but volatility has been the rule. Europe and Asia were down. Expiration Friday looms and we'll close out another wild week on Wall street tomorrow.

Volatility was the name of the game today as the Dow gained 303 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. The Fed raised rates 3/4 of a point and the markets cheered. Counter intuitive to be sure but the bulls will take the rally. We did get a signal again last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move and we saw it today. The NASDAQ led the way up and that's a plus. Despite todays gains the S&P 500 remains short term oversold. We're still pretty far from the 50 day moving average here. Short covering today no doubt as there are still many questions to be answered regarding where we go from here. Gold bounced twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. None of that makes any sense with higher rates from the Fed but this is what markets are made of. The XAU was up 1 1/4, wiht GDX gaining almost 1/2. Volume was average. My GDX July calls are still losers. The daily chart for GDX is still oversold and shows a potential positive divergence on the RSI. So perhaps I can break even on this trade but I wouldn't count on it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX sunk today and the short term indicators turned lower. It might mean that the decline is over but I'm not sure yet. Another positive day like today would be a step in the right direction for the bulls. However todays price action had the tone of a relief rally more than anything else. Sure we can build on it but that remains to be seen for now. Only a couple of days left this week and Friday is options expiration. More volatility would be no surprise. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Waiting on the Fed as the Dow lost 152 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving down. Producer prices came in where expected. The NASDAQ sported a small gain on the day so perhaps there's some hope for the bulls. The S&P 500 is now short term oversold. At least some kind of bounce is due but we'll have to see how the market reacts to whatever the Fed has in store tomorrow. The S&P is once again pretty far from its 50 day moving average and that is a condition that won't last. At any rate tomorrow promises not to be boring. Gold dropped another twenty bucks on the futures as it approaches the $1800 level. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. Rinse and repeat there. The XAU fell 3 1/8, while GDX shed 3/4. Volume was average. My GDX July calls are now losers and I am seriously considering just bailing out of this idea. A stronger dollar with rising interest rates is not the backdrop for higher gold prices. Still no flight to safety for bonds or gold. In retrospect I should have simply remained on the sidelines. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped with a drop in stock prices and that does not fit. Getting to short term overbought for the VIX. Not sure what to expect from here. We're back down through the zero line on the summation index and we've already seen things fall apart. We're still looking for the 3600 level measuring objective from the head and shoulders top for the S&P. Don't know if we'll get there this time around. Asia was generally down and Europe lower as well. We'll see what the Fed has to say and then what the market says tomorrow.

Down we go as stocks got crushed again today. The Dow fell 876 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 17 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower and about to cross the zero line again to the downside for the 3rd time since the beginning of the year. This type of action is normally unheard of. Everything is being sold as the S&P 500 just closed with a loss of over 20% from the top which is the common definition of a bear market. That head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart is valid and the measuring objective of 3600 is in sight. At this rate it feels like we'll go lower than that. The NASDAQ was off over 500 points today and led the way lower. There doesn't appear to be any relief in sight. We'll get producer prices inflation data tomorrow and then the Fed on Wednesday. No positive bias for option expiration week this time around unless we see some kind of relief rally. However the decline seems to be feeding on itself. Gold got clobbered today as well with the futures off fifty bucks. The US dollar soared along with interest rates. The XAU fell 9 1/8, while GDX lost 2 1/8. Volume was heavy. The GDX daily candlestick chart that looked so bullish on Friday now has a different tone. However I did place an order for the GDX July calls this morning and it eventually got filled. It somehow held its value despite GDX continuing to drop and the price on the calls is where I purchased them. This is a dangerous trade even though it has a lot of time left. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX took off today and closed above the 34 level. Not quite yet short term overbought here on the techncial indicators. No doubt that it's going to get there. The question is just how high is this indicator going to go? We are obviously in a market free fall. There is no good news on the horizon that can be seen right now. Margin calls are forcing the selling of whatever you have to cover. The US dollar is finding buyers but the other usual safe havens of gold and bonds aren't. The next couple of days could get intense as inflation and the Fed meeting take center stage. It doesn't look like the Fed can save things this time around. The carnage is worldwide as Asia and Europe sold off to begin the trading week. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Well I guess it wasn't too late for the SPY puts after all. The Dow fell 880 points today on good volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative again. The summation index is now moving lower. The inflation data came in hotter than expected and the market opened with a gap down. We bounced around the rest of the session and closed near the lows for the day. The NASDAQ led the way lower. It looks like we'll be testing the May lows for the S&P 500 next week. Not completely oversold on the short term indicators there. Looks like we'll be heading lower near term and we have the Fed next week to contend with. Perhaps the S&P will finally close in bear market territory. Gold rallied on the news eventually and the futures were up over twenty bucks. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. That did not stop gold from rising and that is a change from recent behavior. The XAU was up 5 3/4, while GDX soared 1 1/2. Volume was heavy to the upside. The daily candlestick chart for GDX now has a bullish engulfing pattern on it and the short term indicators are moving up. This appears to be the beginning of a move higher that I think is worth chasing. I'll now be looking at getting some GDX July calls on any weakness next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved up but did finish off of the highs for the session. The short term indicators here still have a lot of room to go up. If they continue to move higher the stock market will continue to move lower. The medium term signals on the VIX are also starting to turn back up as well. If this continues we'll see new lows in the major indices. That appears to be where we are headed. A week left in the June option cycle as next week should be a doozy. Plenty to ponder this weekend. Europe and Asia were both down to finish the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

No need to wait for tomorrows inflation data as the Dow sold off to the tune of 638 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to stall. Buyers disappeared in the last couple of hours. The NASDAQ led the way down. The S&P 500 did not make it back to the down trend line like we were looking for. The short term indicators for the S&P have rolled over after today. The sideways pattern here broke to the downside. Too late for the June SPY puts now in my opinion. Tomorrow should be interesting. Gold was off five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up a bit. The XAU dropped about 5 points, while GDX slid 1 1/4. Volume was average. If GDX makes it down to the 29 level I'll probably try the August or September calls there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX climbed today with the drop in stocks. The short term indicators have turned up but they remain overbought. If this is just the beginning of a VIX rise, stocks will be going a lot lower. The VIX does remain below its 50 day moving average for now. But it looks like we're heading lower from here and perhaps the TRAN was the canary in the coal mine. The major averages remain in a tops beneath tops and bottoms below bottoms configuration. That implys bearish outcomes and lower prices going forward. However we also know to expect anything in this game so things could just as easily turn around tomorrow. But I doubt it. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see how markets react to the inflation report tomorrow.

Lower today as the Dow fell 269 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up. The S&P 500 led the way lower. Still moving sideways here as it is trying to make up its mind which way to go. Despite todays drop the S&P remains short term overbought. The TRAN took a hit today which could cause trouble for the bulls going forward. Tomorrow should be a waiting game on Fridays inflation report. Gold finished up a couple bucks. The US dollar was a little higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume. Remaining on the sidelines for any GDX trades for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished a bit lower today despite the drop in equity prices. That does not fit the usual relationship. Remaining short term oversold here and this won't last forever. Not sure where the VIX goes from here. We're still waiting for the S&P to get back to the next line of resistance that now stands at around 4225. The S&P has trended sideways for about 2 weeks as it decides what to do next. Only 7 days left in the June option cycle so the risk on doing something here is pretty high. We'll try and stay patient to wait for the opportune time. Asia higher and Europe lower in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

To the upside today as the Dow gained 264 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. We got a signal from the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move and today qualifies as that. The gains were spread out to all the major stock indices. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. Waiting for SPY to get above the 420 level before thinking about trying the June puts there. Volume has been lacking on this rise. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. The gold shares are trending sideways. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX dropped below resistance today and that's a plus for stocks. It remains short term overbought and staying that way which usually means higher equity prices. The next resistance comes in at the 200 day moving average and then the final trend line at the 20 level. If it somehow goes straight down to 20, that would be the ideal time to try the index puts. The market rarely cooperates with the best laid plans so I would not hold my breath for this one. The Russell 2000 is acting better here and it led the way down and perhaps is now leading the way up. However the volume remains on the light side and that is not a sign of strength. We cannot argue with price though. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Back and forth was the name of the game today as the Dow was up 16 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The NASDAQ out performed. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and moving sideways for now. The next line of resistance for the SPY comes in at 425 so it's a waiting game at the moment. Inflation data due out on Friday. Gold was off six bucks on the session. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell 1 1/3, while GDX lost 1/3. Volume was pretty light here. Light volume here shows a general lack of interest for gold right now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up just a bit and remains short term overbought. It is still above the short term line of resistance to move lower. A break of this line would bode well for stocks in the near term but it hasn't happened yet. Just under two weeks left in the June option cycle. I'd like to say I have a good idea of where we're going next but I don't. As long as the summation index is moving up we'll have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls. If we make it up to the 50 day moving average on the S&P 500 I'll consider the SPY June puts. Europe and Asia were higher to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Stocks retreated today as the employment report came in a bit better than expected. The Dow fell 348 points on light volume. Light volume shows little interest so it wasn't a rush to the exits. But not a lot of buyers around either. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues to move up and has now passed upwards through the zero line. The NASDAQ led the way lower. Despite todays drop the S&P 500 remains short term overbought. Ditto for most of the major stock averages. A couple of weeks left in the June option cycle. No SPY trades in mind for now. Gold dropped $17 on the futures. The US dollar was up and interest rates were a bit higher. The XAU was off 3 1/8, while GDX shed 3/4. Volume was light. The gold shares continue to mirror the overall stock market. June in general isn't usually a good month for gold appreciation. I'll probably look out to future months for the GDX calls at this point. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was only slightly higher with todays market drop. The line of resistance to from April to move lower remains in effect but the daily chart still looks like it wants to go down. The VIX remains short term overbought. This weeks price action can be described as a digestion of last weeks big rally if you're a bull. The bearish case would be that there was no upside follow through to the gains. The week was basically sideways. We'll probably know more as we move on but continuing sideways would not come as a surprise as the market tries to make up its mind what to do here. I'll try and remain patient for the S&P to make it back up to resistance and go from there. We'll be going over the charts this weekend as usual. Asia higher and Europe lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 435 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus. Short term overbought and staying that way for the S&P 500. It appears that the next stop for the S&P will be the next down trend line and 50 day moving average at roughly 4250. Recently the McClellan oscillator hit a reading above the +300 level which is usually the sign of the beginning of an extended rally. We are in that mode now. We also had other extreme negative readings on some indicators at the last low put in a couple of weeks ago that suggests that perhaps the bottom for the decline that began in January is in. I'm still believing that we'll see lower prices later this summer but the market could prove me wrong. Gold was up $25 on the futures. The US dollar dropped and interest rates remained steady. The XAU jumped seven points, while GDX added over 1 1/3. Volume was average. It appears that the gold shares are following the stock market higher now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continues to drop and is sitting at trend line resistance that began in April. Another day like today will take the resistance out. Short term overbought on the VIX as well. It certainly has the feel that it will continue lower and stocks continue higher. Perhaps the employment numbers won't matter but we'll wait and see on that. Asia was generally lower and Europe mixed overnight. We'll see how the short trading week finishes tomorrow.

We had a one day reversal to the downside as the market opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 176 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving up. The S&P 500 led the way lower today. Still short term overbought for the S&P. The declines so far this week seem like a digestion of the recent gains more so than a resumption of the overall down trend. We'll know more as the week goes on and we get the reaction to the employment report on Friday. No SPY trades in mind for now. Gold finished relatively flat on the session. The US dollar and interest rates were higher again. The XAU was up a point and GDX added 1/4. Volume was light. GDX remains more overbought than oversold on the short term indicators. Remaining patient here for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was actually lower today which doesn't fit a down market. It also closed below the 50 day moving average. It is short term oversold but the daily candlestick chart here looks like it wants to go lower. It will certainly be something to keep an eye on for the rest of the week. Waiting on Fridays jobs report for now. The economic data out today was mixed. My thinking is that we'll see higher to sideways prices for a while to get the summation index back above the zero line and positive once again. That's my best guess at the moment. After that, who knows? I'm still in the camp for lower prices later this summer with the same target of 3600 for the S&P. However if we make it through the 200 day moving average and the final down trend line for the S&P, that theory will be proven wrong. Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.