An actual downside day as the Dow lost 37 points. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative and volume was expiration heavy. I doubt that this is the start of a prolonged down move. It is probably just expiration related. The trend remains up until the technicals point to otherwise. So we'll see where we go from here. Gold took a hit, down $20. The XAU lost 2 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on average volume. The gold shares have actually held up pretty well here considering that gold itself dropped pretty good. The dollar had a good day as well. Still just moving sideways here in the gold indices. As I said before my next trade could be in the gold shares again. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well. So we're done with the March option cycle and that should pretty much do it for me regarding the first quarter of the year. It stunk. I'll just have to suck it up and move on. There isn't much else to say about that. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend and go from there. No trades on the radar as yet. It's the weekend and time for a break.

The Dow rose 45 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. Haven't seen that in quite some time. Perhaps we are finally going to get a pause in this unprecedented run up. Still very overbought and staying there. Expiration Friday tomorrow. New highs have expanded and the advance/decline line continues higher. The trend is up. Gold was up a couple bucks despite dollar strength today. The XAU dropped over a point. ABX, GG and NEM were mixed on light volume. We've been moving sideways here. I think my next trade will be in the gold shares but haven't exactly decided what it will be. There's no rush at the moment. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. Option expiration tomorrow and we'll roll into the April cycle. Sometimes April has a tendency to be a sideways affair, which would not be conducive to profitable trading. So we'll see. I'm in no hurry to do anything with my confidence being as low as it gets. Plenty of time this year to turn things around. We'll see if I'm capable.

The Dow continues higher, up another 47 points today. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive and the volume was average. It's up, up and away. Has been for quite a while. The usual technical indicators don't work in an environment like this. Well overbought and staying there for days on end. Summation index still going higher. 2 days until expiration and we should just continue to advance I guess. My ideas haven't been working all year, so who knows? Gold was up a touch during the day but has sold off a bit on the futures. The XAU was little changed. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. The dollar didn't do much today either. The dollar is right on an important daily uptrend line that goes back for a couple of months. What happens to the dollar here could have implications for the gold shares. It's something to keep an eye on. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well. So where do I go from here? A terrible first quarter of the year trading. I'll have to take a step back and regroup. Again. I'll keep doing the work and looking for the next perceived opportunity. My trading tactics have got to change or the results will be the same. Plenty to work on and think about.

The Fed announcement came and went with the Dow gaining 44 points on the day. Volume was average and the advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. I dumped the OEX calls for a 75% loss. That was a horrible trade. We are in the middle of an unprecedented rise where the market has stayed overbought for days on end. The major averages are breaking out, following the over the counter markets. Volume is nothing great but you can't argue with price. Summation index continues higher. Continuing higher into the March expiration which I thought may happen but did not trade it accordingly. Gold had a good day on dollar weakness, up $17. The XAU rose about 4 1/2. ABX and GG were up a buck, with NEM up 1 1/2. Volume was average. No trades here but I do not think that gold is trending on way or the other right now. Sideways until the next decent move seems to be the case. Mentally I'm feeling tired but slept pretty good. This trade and the preceding one were just terrible. I did not follow the rules and I was not quick enough to do what was required. It hasn't been a good 1st quarter and there is nobody to blame but myself. Can I turn things around? Perhaps. I have before. However losing takes its toll and I am clearly presently in a funk. Perhaps a little time off is called for with regards to trading. We'll see.

A one day reversal to the upside as the Dow gained 17 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were down over 50 points early. That is when I should have dumped the OEX puts I own for a loss. It is always easy to look back. But I'm still holding them here, waiting on the Fed tomorrow. It isn't a wise strategy. The market simply continues to grind higher and it is expiration week. That usually implies a positive bias. So I do have another stop loss order in and it will be filled if we have a strong open tomorrow. We'll see. Gold was up a few bucks today even with a stronger dollar. The XAU fell 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. No trades for the gold shares here for me. I will probably let the month of March pass for gold trades unless there is a decent signal. Maybe get long at the end of the month. Mentally I'm disappointed in myself for not just taking the loss today on the OEX trade. It obviously isn't going to work and it looks like I'll be taking a better than 50% loss again. It doesn't make any sense to have trading rules if you don't have the discipline to follow them. This is one of my major trading flaws. Has been for years. Despite that I've still managed to do OK but the trading results could be so much better. It always seems to be a work in progress. There is nobody to blame but myself and that's how it is when you're a trader. The mental capital lost with losing trades is more important than the money. The money doesn't come up with the ideas, you do. So I will have to continue to work on myself. We'll see what happens with the Fed tomorrow and go from there. I would not be surprised if we go on up to new recovery highs.

The Dow closed the day higher by 12 points. Volume was average. The advance/declines were positive. The Dow had a gap up at the open and my stop loss order was jumped. I canceled the order since we moved so far away from it. The market came back and eventually the order would have been filled but I'm holding out for another day. It will be a cut the loss scenario at this point anyway. The strength of the market continues to amaze as there hasn't been a down day in the S&P 500 futures for 10 days in a row. I'm probably making a mistake by not just getting out today but the trade has yet to hit the 50% loss threshold. Gold lost $6 and the XAU fell 1 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. The GG earnings came out and there wasn't a pop to the upside as had been the case with ABX and NEM. The dollar had a weak session and it did not help gold. Not sure what it means but it usually isn't bullish. We are in the month of March so I would not expect much upside from gold. I'm on the sidelines there for now. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. Not happy that I just didn't book the OEX put loss today. It's one of the problems I encounter during my trading. It would have been better if the stop loss order had been filled and I could move on to the next trade. However now I'm stuck in this for another day. Time is running out with 5 days to go and the market shows absolutely no signs of weakness. And so it goes. So we'll see what happens Monday morning and go from there. Friday afternoon means time for a break.

Opened lower and closed higher as the Dow gained 44 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. There's no keeping this market down. Today was a one day reversal to the upside and implies higher prices. I'm just about stopped out of the OEX put trade and probably will be tomorrow. We are as overbought as possible and yet there just hasn't even been a day of pullback. Summation index continues higher. How long can this unabated rally continue? We'll see. I could have exited the put trade early today for a profit and in retrospect that's what I should have done. Gold was little changed on the day. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. The dollar was a touch weaker. GG earnings after the close today. I'm not looking at any gold trades at the moment. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept longer last night. It looks like the Dow is about to bust out to new highs for the year, following the small cap stocks. My OEX put trade will be a loser unless we are pretty weak on the open tomorrow. At this point, I don't see that happening. Retail sales tomorrow will be the key to the opening. Or not. It could be that the momentum to the upside just continues. At any rate whatever happens I will be out of this trade at some point tomorrow.

The Dow gained 3 points today in pretty much range bound trading. Volume was good again, while the advance/declines were positive. Very overbought and staying there. Summation index continuing to move higher. The overall market was much better than the Dow. It's possible this is a momentum rally and will simply continue higher. That said, I did buy some OEX puts this morning. They are priced where I bought them for now. With all the strength in the indices, I don't expect to hold on for too long. The stop-loss order is in place. Gold dropped $14 today and the XAU fell 2 1/3. ABX and NEM were off 3/4, while GG lost a point. Volume was a bit better than lately. The gold shares are still outperforming the metal itself. The dollar fell a bit but it didn't help gold. I took a look at the GG puts but did not seriously consider a trade there. The earnings will be due tomorrow. Mentally I'm tired. Trading the OEX will do that. I need to get some more sleep and will do that tonight. So I'm in the OEX put trade and hopefully not for long. We are overbought by any measure. And we've been that way all week. Some type of downside action is overdue. However the market will go where it wants and do what it pleases. If we do get some type of drop, I'd like to exit this trade and get some OEX calls for expiration week. We'll see.

Trying to move higher as the Dow was up 12 points on better volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were up as much as 50 points but sold off late. I placed an order for some OEX puts, adjusted the price lower and was not filled. In retrospect, I should have just left the original order in place. I'm leaving in an overnight order for the OEX puts but it may be too late. Even so, I'll be looking to purchase some OEX calls for option expiration week, barring a collapse here. I don't see that happening. Summation index still pointing higher but we are very overbought and haven't even had the pullback here that I'm looking for. Gold lost a couple of bucks today but was much lower. The XAU lost a point. ABX, GG and NEM were mixed with fractional moves one way or the other. Volume was light. The dollar was up a bit today. No trades for me in the gold shares here but GG announces earnings after the bell on Thursday. If anything, I'm looking at the puts there but I could be wrong. Mentally I'm doing OK. Frustrated at not leaving my original OEX order in because I would like to own the puts here. I can't believe that we won't see some weakness in the next couple of days. We have been overbought and have stayed there for too long already. I don't think that it's the beginning of something big if it does happen because the internals are so strong. But I do believe that it's trade worthy and that's why I'd like to do it. So we'll see what happens tomorrow.

In a holding pattern as the Dow lost 13 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. I have an order in for some OEX puts which trade until 1:15 PST. I may wait until tomorrow. I do think that this is a trade that will work but it isn't a long term deal. It's possible that tomorrow could be another up day but the odds are against it. Summation index still heading higher. We are overbought here and have stayed there. I don't think my order will be filled. Gold took a hit today, off over $10. ABX, GG and NEM were all fractionally lower on light volume. GG has earnings out this week. I'm thinking of perhaps getting the puts. Gold is overbought here but the gold shares are outperforming the metal itself. The dollar didn't do much today. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept better. My thinking is that this OEX put trade could work but it doesn't look like I'll be getting them today. Tomorrow could be too late. And so it goes. The timing has to be correct. My work over the weekend is pointing to higher prices in the near term even if we do get a midweek sell-off. So perhaps I'll be getting some calls if I don't get in on the short side here. And maybe even if I do. I guess I'll try again tomorrow.

A positive reaction to the employment report as the Dow gained 122 points today. Advance/declines were over 4 to 1 positive on average volume. Summation index still pointing higher. Overbought and staying there. I still am favoring the OEX put scenario for the beginning of next week. Strength on Monday can be sold in my opinion but I'll check things out over the weekend. The Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ have broken out to new highs and are leading the markets. This usually leads to the major indices following. So after this put play, if it occurs, getting long would be favored. Gold was up a couple bucks as the dollar didn't do much today. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. If anything I would be looking to get puts on the gold shares here. I could be wrong but we are overbought. Not to sound like a broken record but March historically isn't a good period for gold. I'll check things here over the weekend as well but I'll probably focus on the OEX for a trade. Mentally I'm feeling fine, slept well. Long and strong this week for the stock indices. We had everything but volume on this continued upside move. The advance/decline line continues to make new highs. It will be hard to buy those OEX puts on Monday but a decent signal is here. It's not going to be a trade to hold too long but it looks like it could work for a couple of days. We'll see. The weekend is here and there is much work to do but now it's time for a break.

The Dow gained 47 points today on light to average volume. Advance/declines were positive. Short covering today? I don't know. The market action kept me from purchasing the OEX puts that I had wanted to get before tomorrows employment report. I did not want to take the risk. My ideal scenario now would be a positive day tomorrow and then a purchase of the puts on follow through upside Monday. But how often does the market do what you'd like? Summation index still heading higher. Gold lost $10 today and the XAU fell 2 1/4. ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM dropped a buck. Volume was average. The dollar had a good day. I'd be inclined to short the gold shares here but I probably won't. Perhaps if they build a multi-day top. Overbought on a daily basis there. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well enough. So it looks like I will let the employment report pass and take it from there. 11 days in the March option cycle to go. So there is plenty of time to put on a trade. I'm trying to let the technicals line up for something here. If tomorrow is to the upside, then I think there will be a low risk opportunity to get short at the beginning of next week. If we drop tomorrow, then I'll have to look for something else.

In a holding pattern as the Dow lost 9 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. A rerun of yesterday as we were higher and then came back. I did place another order for some OEX puts but canceled it halfway through the trading day. We are either building a short term top here or consolidating before we move higher. I'll have to see how tomorrow shapes up before I decide what to do here. We are overbought but the internals are saying higher prices are ahead. Gold gained $5 today on a weaker dollar. The XAU rose 2 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM were all up at least 1/2 on average volume. We did break a daily downtrend line in the gold shares this week. However with March being a historically poor month for gold, I'm leery of getting long. But it looks as though the dollar may have topped out here as well. So it's a split decision and I have no trades there for now. Mentally I'm doing good, slept well enough. I had wanted to get short before the employment report and I still might do it. But I cannot rule out that the market will be going higher here and that would kill any trade in the OEX puts. So perhaps I will not do anything and stay on the sidelines. I check things over again tonight and go from there.

A slight pause today as the Dow gained 2 points. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive and the volume was average. We were higher for most of the day and then sold off a bit. I did actually put an order in for some OEX puts at the high of the day but canceled it when it wasn't quickly filled. We are short term overbought here but it's possible todays action relieved that condition. Or not. I'm still thinking about getting some OEX puts before the employment report. However the summation index remains to the upside. The broader market was stronger than the Dow as well. Gold had a good day, up almost $20. The XAU rose about 4 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all up about a buck or so on average volume. The dollar was off a bit but not as much that would represent a $20 rise in gold. Perhaps something else is going on here but I certainly don't know what. I'm not looking to do anything with the gold shares at the moment. Overbought here as well and staying there. Mentally I'm doing fine, slept well. I'll be checking the charts tonight to see if the OEX puts play is viable. I may perhaps wait until Thursday depending on tomorrows action. Or I may do nothing at all. There's still plenty of time for the March option cycle. So we'll see what tomorrow brings.

A positive start to the week and the month as the Dow gained 78 points. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive and the volume was light. The trend remains to the upside as previously discussed. We are getting short term overbought but could stay there as is the case with up trends. The dollar had a good day and the stock market shrugged it off. Beginning of the month money flows perhaps? Gold was flat today and the XAU gained 2 3/4 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had at least 1/2 point gains or more on light volume. The gold shares outperformed gold and that is usually bullish going forward. The gold shares also decoupled from the stronger dollar. I don't know what it means going forward but we'll have to keep an eye on it and see if it continues. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well. I don't have a clear idea of exactly what to trade here but I'm leaning towards getting some OEX puts if we hold up until Fridays employment report. That remains to be seen. The summation index is heading higher and it is tough to fight that. I'm going to have to remain in a wait and see mode for now. The daily technicals are overbought on the indices and have been for a few days. That won't last forever. However we could be in the final run up of the market which would last until the March expiration. Crosscurrents here to be sure.

A sideways end to the month as the Dow gained 4 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. Not much to report today. Summation index still higher. I'm beginning to look at the OEX March calls for the beginning of next week. Medium term overbought here but staying there. Shorter term we are moving to oversold on the stock indices. I'll think about it over the weekend. Gold was up $10 and the XAU rose 1 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional moves to the upside on light volume. The dollar was off a bit today. March is historically the worst month for gold over the past 30 years. That is something to consider in the short term. I have no gold share trades on the horizon unless I consider a GG earnings play. Doubtful for me at this time. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept better. Moving on to March and I'll try to get a better handle on myself. We've got the employment report in a week. It seems to me that the market wants to go higher here but I could be wrong. Plenty to think about over the weekend. It's time for a little rest though as Friday afternoon is upon us.

Volatility is back as the Dow opened lower by 175 points and ended the day down 53. Volume was average and the advance/declines were negative. The overall market was stronger than the Dow which bodes well for the bullish cause going forward. Europe is going in the tank, supposedly causing todays market gyrations. I'm leaning towards the upside but have no trades at the moment. It could be a sideways affair as well, I'm just not convinced one way or the other. Gold was up $11 and the XAU rose 4 1/2 on safe haven buying. ABX up 3/4, GG up over a buck and NEM rose 2 1/2, all on better volume. NEM had a good earnings report. GG is the only one of the big 3 left to report earnings and that's in 2 weeks. Is that an opportunity to get some calls before the report? Who knows? The dollar was higher early and then sold off some. No gold share trades for now. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. End of the month trades tomorrow and we'll move on from there. I don't have anything in the works but I am leaning towards getting some OEX calls. Not a clear signal as yet though. Patience for now.

Back to the upside as the Dow gained 91 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The trend is up as the summation index continues higher. Declines look like they can be bought at this point but that is subject to change. The option premiums are actually favoring the OEX puts now, which implies downside ahead. So perhaps the trend is sideways and not up. I have no clear idea, obviously, at this point. The sidelines are the place for me for now. Gold lost $6 and the XAU fell a point. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. The dollar was little changed. I don't have any trades in mind for the gold shares here as well. This looks like a week that I will probably let pass. Mentally I'm feeling OK, could have slept better. Moving towards the end of the month. I have no good signals at the moment so it's a waiting game. I'll try my best not to do anything stupid but you never know.

The McClellan oscillator signal was valid as the Dow lost 101 points today. Volume picked up a bit from what it's been lately. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. So there's another trade missed but what can you do? I don't think this will be an extended decline but I haven't done anything right lately. Volume has been higher on the declines for the last few weeks and that could be troublesome going forward. We'll see. Gold was off $10 and the XAU dropped 5 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM were all off a buck or more on average volume. The dollar found some strength today. The daily candlestick charts for the gold shares are now bearish. Puts can possibly be purchased on a snap back to the upside. That's my guess for now there. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well. Now about missing this downside activity in the indices. It isn't about money. Having screwed up the last trade for a loss influenced how I handled the latest signal. It kept me on the sidelines. The mental capital lost in losing trades is one of the most important things to consider. Trades affect each other. It's important to keep your confidence. Losing trades take away from that when you don't follow your rules and maintain proper discipline. That's what just happened to me. It shouldn't. I'm working on it.

Not really much going on the Monday following option expiration as the Dow lost 19 points on light volume. Advance/declines were about even. Overbought and staying there. The McClellan oscillator is indicating a decent move tomorrow with its action on Friday. I'm guessing it will be to the downside but who knows? I didn't have the guts to get some OEX puts today but there is a lot of time for the March option cycle. The price movement would have to be extensive to make it worth the risk. Gold lost $9 on the futures and the XAU fell 2 1/2. ABX off a point, GG down 2/3 and NEM lost 3/4. Volume was light. The dollar didn't do much today either. No gold share trades for now but we are overbought. I'd be leaning towards the puts though. March is historically the worst month for gold. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. We've moved on to the next option cycle and I'm in no rush to put on any trades. Not to mention my confidence is low after last weeks debacle. I'm moving on but don't see anything worthwhile at the moment. We'll see if we get a decent move in the indices tomorrow.

The decline that I anticipated for today did not materialize as the Dow gained 9 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. The volume has actually been light all week. We did get a drop of over 50 points early but it didn't last. We're now short and medium term overbought on the stock indices. The summation index is heading higher. Although we are overbought, the trend is up. Perhaps we will continue higher into the March option expiration. That would be my guess at this point. Gold was up a touch on the futures while the XAU lost about a point. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on average volume. It was a good week for the gold shares. Was it more expiration related maneuvering or the start of an extended more higher? Overbought here as well. Always plenty of questions and lately I haven't had the answers. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well. It was a disappointing week for me with yet another losing trade. I did not even follow my own trading rules regarding placing a stop loss order. That is unacceptable. As usual I need to work more on myself than I do on the markets. It's an ongoing project. So where do we go from here? Early in the March option cycle so there is no hurry to do anything. I'd expect some weakness early next week but who knows? I haven't exactly been accurate lately. I'll simply have to wait until I get a better feel of what's going on. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Continuing higher for expiration week as the Dow gained 83 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. Summation index heading higher. I dumped my OEX puts for an 80% loss since I didn't place a stop order when obviously I should have. This trade was doomed from the start as I did not have the discipline necessary to wait until today to try something for the expected drop tomorrow. There is nobody to blame but myself as this trading year seems to be a continuation of last years disaster so far. I'll have to regroup. The market is short term overbought and staying there. I still expect a decent drop tomorrow but the puts I had are too far out of the money. Gold was down a touch today and up a bit in the aftermarket. The XAU rose 2 1/3. ABX up 1 1/4, GG up about 1/2 and NEM up a buck or so. Volume was good. ABX had nice earnings and the gold shares rode that to a positive day. The dollar was little changed today. Obviously getting some gold share calls for the February option cycle was the place to be. I had my chances but wasn't good enough, again. Mentally I'm a bit tired but not bad. Dealing with this latest loss will be the challenge. I probably should stick to trading the time frames that I've had some success with. Extremely short term trading isn't what I'm good at. I'll need to remember this going forward. So you sometimes have to take your lumps and move on. I've been doing that a lot lately. We'll see what happens with expiration Friday and go from there. I have no trades on the horizon and no new ideas at the moment.

Some follow through to the upside as the Dow gained 40 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. My overnight order for the OEX puts was filled in the morning. They're slightly in the red. This isn't looking like it's going to work right now. I may just have to get out tomorrow and not even wait for Friday. 2 days left and it was a risky deal to begin with. But you never know. I still feel a decent decline will occur Friday. The short term technicals are overbought. We'll see how the overseas markets do tonight. Gold was little changed after yesterdays nice run up. The XAU fell a point. ABX and GG had fractional gains, while NEM had a fractional loss. Volume was pretty good. We are at short term resistance for the gold shares. No trades there for now. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept better. So I'm in a short term OEX trade and it isn't looking good with very little time left. Perhaps I was just looking to make a trade in the February cycle, when maybe I should have passed. That's a possibility. I wouldn't have put the trade on though, if I didn't think it had a chance to work. So we'll see what happens at the open tomorrow and go from there.

A big upside move to start a shortened option expiration week as the Dow gained 170 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 4 to 1 positive. The summation index will be moving to the upside now. I'm still calling for Friday to be a pretty good down day. The question is from what levels? I'm leaving in an overnight order for some OEX puts. This may not be the brightest idea but I'm going to give it a shot. 3 days only until expiration. I'm hoping to get filled on the follow through upside tomorrow morning and then hold until sometime on Friday. We are almost at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent downside and the RSI is at 50 for the OEX. So we'll see. We could just shoot straight up from here as well. Gold had a great day, up $20 to $30 depending on which contract you're watching. The XAU rose 4 1/3. ABX up 3/4, GG up over a buck and NEM up 7/8. Volume was good. The dollar was weak today for a change and we are being turned back at the 200 day moving average on the daily charts here. However I would have liked to see a better move in the gold shares today. It didn't happen and that is puzzling. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well. So it looks like I'm going to try a short term OEX trade here and I usually don't fare too well with this type of trade. I may just have to wait until Thursday to put it on. The overnight order that I have is out of the money and positioned to be filled if we get a 3 to 4 point upside move in the OEX tomorrow morning. So we'll see what happens.

An interesting Friday before a long weekend as the Dow lost 45 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. We sold off over 150 points early and fought back all day. The market has the feel that it wants to go higher. The option premiums on the calls have expanded vs. the puts. I may have to forget about the OEX puts but I'll check things over the weekend. Gold lost $4 on the futures and was lower than that early as well. The XAU fell a point. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. The dollar was higher today. Getting overbought on the gold shares short term. I don't see me doing any trades there near term. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well. 4 days to go in the February option cycle. Like I said it feels as though we will be moving to the upside early next week if there are no surprises over the weekend. I perhaps should have gotten some OEX calls today. I was considering the puts actually and I still might try them but it will have to be later in the week next week, if at all. I will have to consider a number of things over the weekend. Risk will be high with so little time remaining. Profit has the potential to be high as well though. The indicators on the weekly charts for the stock indices look like they want to turn back to the upside. Plenty of time this weekend to decide what, if any, action to take. For now it's Friday afternoon and time to take a rest.

Moving higher now as the Dow gained 105 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index could stop its decline with todays market action. We are getting to short term overbought on some indicators but I think there is still room to move higher before resistance. That said, I am leaving in an order for OEX puts in case we get a big pop on the open tomorrow. It would have to be pretty big because the ideal time to get short will be at the beginning of next week. That's my guess at least. There's a chance that we just go higher from here for a few days without a pullback too. Gold had a good day, up $18. The XAU rose 6 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all up around 1 1/2 on average volume. Short term overbought here and it was a missed opportunity for me again. I'm not going to chase this move though. However it is possible that gold has corrected and will resume its upward momentum. The weekly chart looks constructive in this regard. Mentally I'm feeling OK, could have slept better. There is a chance that the decline in the stock market has ended. The summation index may turn around here. I'm not completely sold on this idea but it is possible. Right now I am concerned with making a decent trade in the 5 days that remain in the February option cycle. I think that the OEX gives me the best chance to do that. It won't be easy though. We'll see what the market has to say tomorrow.

Kind of a sideways type of day as the Dow lost 20 points. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was light. No clear signal here. If we have weakness going into the end of the week, I may try some calls for anticipated strength at the beginning of next week. But anything can happen. Summation index still pointing down. Gold was flat on the futures and down a bit in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on lighter volume. The dollar was higher. I'm not considering any gold share trades at the moment but I'll be looking things over again tonight. Mentally I'm a bit tired again, did not sleep well. I have a couple of scenarios for the overall market going forward from here but none that look solid. It is hard to be patient. I could make a case for getting short if we have strength tomorrow or getting long if we have weakness. 6 days in the February option cycle and a long weekend coming up in the US. I'll look things over tonight and see if I can come up with something worthwhile.

The Dow rose 150 points on good volume today. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. We were oversold and due for a bounce again. We were up over 200 at one point but 150 points isn't bad for the bulls. Rumors of a Greece bailout helped. We are definitely choppy here and it makes for tough trading on the OEX. I'd still like to try some puts before expiration though. Gold was up $11 and the XAU rose 5 3/4. ABX up over a point, GG up 1 1/2 and NEM up 1 1/3. Volume was good. The dollar took a good hit on the Greece rumor, which helped the price of gold. My ABX call order wasn't filled. The volume has picked up on the upside moves in the gold shares. That should be bullish going forward. I may try the ABX calls again or perhaps GG. But I'll have to see a pullback from here and that may not happen. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. The market has speeded up here and I haven't been able to make the decisions to keep up. Well at least I haven't lost any money but I haven't made any either. Option premiums have risen with the increase in volatility. However with just 7 days left in the February cycle, time premium will be sucked out at a rapid pace. So we'll see what happens.

The bounce after Fridays comeback did not happen as the Dow lost 103 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. This type of action doesn't bode well for the near term as the path of least resistance remains to the downside. The summation index is still pointing down. We will be short term oversold on any negative action tomorrow however. I'm not sure that it is worth an OEX call trade though. Perhaps later in the week. Gold was up $13 on the futures but it was catch up from the late aftermarket gains of Friday. The XAU lost almost 5 points. ABX and GG lost more than a buck and NEM dropped almost 2. Volume was average. The dollar was little changed. I have an order in for some ABX calls again. I'm going to have to look at things tonight to see if I'll leave it open tomorrow. If the market continues to drop, the dollar will probably find more strength and that would not be helpful for gold. However gold is oversold and there is a positive divergence with the RSI indicator. More to ponder. Mentally I'm feeling fine, slept well. It's an interesting market at the moment. 8 days remain in the February option cycle. Risk is high and so is volatility. It also means that money can be made or lost quickly. I have an idea for the gold share calls but it hasn't been working lately. We also did not see any follow through to the overall markets comeback on Friday. So it's a tough call as usual. Oversold and staying there is a recipe for lower prices. I'll have to think about things tonight. For those keeping score this is the 1500th entry to Jimmybees Stock Market Trading Blog. I hope it's been helpful for you.

It was a one day reversal as the Dow was off better than 150 points and came all the way back to close up 10 points. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was heavy. Could the decline be over? Perhaps. The employment report really didn't shed too much light on the situation. Todays market action suggests that the worst is behind us for now. Monday will be key. If we get a decent rally, I'd say that the decline has ended. If we turn right around and end up negative, then I'd say not. Gold made a comeback as well, down $10 on the futures but getting back to positive territory in the aftermarket. The XAU rose 7 3/4. ABX up almost 2, GG up 2 1/3 and NEM up 2 3/4. Volume was heavy. The dollar was higher as well but the gold shares rallied. Looks like I was a day late here as well. However if we get some weakness on Monday, I may have to give the ABX calls another shot. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling well, slept good again. It's been quite a week and next week could be just as challenging. Volatility has picked up and the speed of the markets has increased. My ideas have been pretty good but the execution hasn't. Hopefully I can change that next week. There will be a lot to look at over the weekend. As I said before, Monday will be important. But for now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The stock market took a hit today as the Dow lost 268 points on good volume. Declines beat advances by over 8 to 1. My order for OEX puts wasn't filled as I have missed another opportunity. We got the snap back from the oversold condition but I was hoping we would hold up for another day. We didn't. Hard to figure where the next bounce will come from now. Employment report tomorrow and that will probably be sold as well. It kind of has the feel of a worldwide liquidity problem again. We'll see what happens but it won't be easy to trade. Gold got clobbered, down almost $50. The XAU lost 8 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM were all down $2 or more on heavy volume. The dollar had a good day in the flight to safety. So why isn't gold doing better? All commodities are being sold at the moment. However if I do try a bounce trade, I think I may do it in the gold shares. It's early to think about it seriously though but I could be wrong. The Gold/XAU ratio signal is still there. The trouble is that just like the stock market, the gold market is oversold and staying there. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well. So where do we go from here, that is always the question. The trend is down and I don't see a change there anytime soon. Perhaps the market will simply continue lower for the February option cycle. That would be for a couple more weeks after tomorrow. I suppose I may have to wait for a clear oversold signal and then try a bounce trade. More tomorrow.

A slight pause after 2 pretty good up days as the Dow lost 26 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were lower from the open and stayed that way for the trading day. I placed an open order for some OEX puts and I'm leaving it in overnight. I'm still a believer in the downside here but things could change as always. Employment report on Friday and it should be a market mover. I'm not sure If I'm going to take a position before then but probably will. Gold lost $6 today and the XAU fell 1 3/4. ABX and GG were off about 1/2, while NEM was higher by about as much. Volume was light. The dollar had a better day today. I'm not planning on doing anything in the gold shares at the moment. Perhaps before the February expiration. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept more. So I have an order in for some OEX puts but I'm not exactly sure if this is the right thing to do. Summation index still pointing down and we are in the process or have worked off the short term oversold condition. So it's a tough call as usual. I still think that it might be worth a shot though. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Perhaps sleeping on it will give a more concrete resolution.

We continue higher as the Dow gained 111 points. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 again and the volume was light to average. We are getting a snap back as I had hoped we would. But could it be more than that? Maybe. I'm sticking with my bearish scenario though and will look to get some OEX puts on strength tomorrow. It won't be easy to do but I'm going to give it a try. Summation index still pointing down but will be trying to turn around soon if the positive activity continues. However the premiums on the OEX puts remain much higher than the calls and that was the case before the previous decline. Gold continued higher as well, up $13 on the futures. The XAU could only manage a half point gain. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on average volume for lately. The dollar fell a bit again. Might try the gold shares again to the plus side but it won't be until next week. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. I'll be concentrating on the OEX for now and it's a much faster game than the gold shares. The game plan remains the same and that is to be short going into the employment report. If we get some follow through upside tomorrow morning, that could be the opportunity that I'm waiting for. Or not. It's never easy but I have to follow my convictions here and see what happens.

Finally a decent bounce as the Dow gained 118 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. Oversold bounce? Beginning of the month money flows? You can take your pick but it was bound to happen. Now is the decline over? That is the question. I still would like to try the OEX puts before the employment report on Friday. If we continue higher into the close on Wednesday then I will give them a try. As the McClellan oscillator makes its way back to the zero line. That is the key. To try and remain patient for the next couple of days and see what happens. Gold had a stellar day as well, up over $20. The XAU rose over 8 points. It was bound to happen with a decent Gold/XAU buy signal and the oversold condition. ABX and GG were up over 1 1/2, with NEM up 2 3/4. Volume was light but you can't argue with the price movement. The dollar lost a bit of ground but not much. I almost bought some ABX calls on Friday after I had gotten stopped out of the previous trade. But almost counts for nothing. I may try the gold shares again for the February cycle later this month. Mentally I'm doing good, slept well. So I'm sticking with my bearish scenario for later this week barring a market melt-up prior to then. But I could be wrong and that must be considered as well. Perhaps the decline is over. However if we remain positive going into Friday we will have worked off the oversold condition and perhaps will go back down for a retest of last Fridays lows. Time will tell.

Opened higher and closed lower. We were up over 100 points early but closed with a loss of 55 points on the Dow. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative and the volume was good. GDP was better than expected but the market could not hold the gains. Something is going on here because we are oversold and staying there. Summation index still pointing down. We haven't even seen a decent bounce yet. I still like the OEX puts before the employment report if we get some type of upside. Gold only lost a buck but the XAU followed the overall market and was off 5 1/2. ABX and NEM each dropped more than a buck, while GG was lower by 1 3/4. The dollar continues to march higher. My ABX calls were finally stopped out for a loss of 45%. Not a lot of money in the trade thankfully. It didn't feel good from the start and never had a chance to work. The Gold/XAU buy signal is still in place but it doesn't look like it's going to work. Oversold and staying there on the gold shares as well. I my try again on Monday but I will have to check things over the weekend. It may be time to forget about gold for a while. Mentally I'm OK, could have slept more. The market can't seem to get any traction to the upside. No doubt oversold and should have seen some type of rally by now. If we get one early next week I'll probably get some OEX puts. So we'll see. Another losing trade closed today but I'm moving on. Sometimes you just get it wrong. For now it's the weekend and time for a break.

Another downer as the Dow lost 115 points. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative and the volume was average. We were lower for most of the day and then tried to make a comeback but failed at the end of the day. Bernanke was confirmed for another 4 years at the Fed. Didn't help the market though. Summation index still heading lower. We did not get a good bounce when we should have and that isn't good for the bullish cause. End of the month tomorrow plus GDP. Could get dicey. Gold was flat on the day after being lower. The XAU lost 1 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional moves one way or the other on better volume. The dollar was up again. My ABX calls are still in the red. Really need to get rid of them but I'm still getting a buy signal on the Gold/XAU ratio. The gold share technicals are way oversold as well. At any rate I almost was stopped out of the trade today and will be tomorrow if we get any downside so perhaps it won't matter. Mentally I'm doing OK. Another thing to consider here is possible beginning of the month positive money flows on Monday as well. But I will be looking for OEX puts before the employment report as I have already stated. So let's get through tomorrow and see how things shape up after that.

Getting the expected bounce now as the Dow gained 42 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative though. The Fed announcement came and went. Nothing new there. We were lower for most of the day and rallied in the last hour and a half. We're working off the oversold condition. GDP and the end of the month on Friday. I'm still leaning towards the OEX puts at some point next week if we hold up. Gold lost $13 and the XAU dropped 1 1/3. ABX and GG had fractional losses while NEM was unchanged. All were lower during the trading session. Volume was average for lately. My ABX calls are still underwater. The dollar was higher today. I am getting a buy signal from the Gold/XAU ratio and the gold shares are still oversold. However, I cannot hold on to this trade forever and should be out by the end of the week. Unless Friday is a huge up day for gold and I don't see that happening at the moment. Mentally I'm doing OK. Is it possible that the decline is over here? Maybe but I'm thinking that it isn't. The summation index is still pointing down but the stock indices are oversold technically. So there are some crosscurrents. Obviously the ABX call trade was a mistake on my part at this point. I'll need to take care of that before I move on to the OEX.

Could not hold on to the gains again as the Dow lost 2 points. We were up over 80 at one point during the day. Volume was average and the advance/declines were negative. Seems as though the market wants to head back to the downside. Waiting on the Fed tomorrow. Oversold still and now staying there and that isn't a good sign. Getting short on a bounce is the plan for the OEX at this point. Gold was up a couple of bucks but the XAU lost a point. ABX, GG and NEM all opened lower, came back to have nice gains and then gave them all back to finish around unchanged. Volume was light to average. The dollar had gains on the day. My ABX calls are still negative and will get stopped out if we have a negative day tomorrow. This doesn't look like a very smart trade at this point. But we'll see. Stranger things have happened. The gold shares are very oversold and have yet to get a bounce. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. I need to be looking at exiting the ABX call trade this week. I'll have to be out at the first bounce. It just doesn't have the feel of something that is going to work out. We'll see if the Fed announcement can get things going one way or the other.

A slight bounce today as the Dow gained 24 points on lighter volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were higher for most of the day but then sold off in the last hour. Still oversold here so I would expect some more upside at some point this week. Fed meeting starts tomorrow and then the rate announcement on Wednesday. I'd expect tomorrow to be a day of waiting around but I could be wrong. OEX puts at some point seem to be the play. Gold was up $6 but the XAU fell 1 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on good volume. The dollar was little changed. I left in an overnight order for some ABX calls and it got filled. It's already in the red. The stop-loss order has been placed. This could just be a mistake as the gold shares are showing me nothing at the moment. This is supposed to be a quick trade and I will most likely give it until the Fed announcement. The technicals on the gold shares are oversold and a bounce is due here as well. Unless it doesn't happen of course. So I'm giving it a couple of days and then we'll see what happens. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. So another trade is underway and I'm wondering if I should have just waited to get some OEX puts instead? I still plan on getting some, perhaps later this week. On to tomorrow.

Continuing to the downside as the path of least resistance is lower. The Dow lost 217 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were over 4 to 1 negative. We should see a bounce early next week. It may be an opportunity to get short. But it won't be easy. Oversold here and playing the bounce could be tricky. I think that I will wait to get some OEX puts as the McClellan oscillator tries to head back up to the zero line. Gold lost $13 on the futures but the XAU only fell 3/4. Perhaps getting some gold shares calls as a flight to safety will be the play. ABX, GG and NEM all ended the day where they started after selling off, then rising for nice gains and finally falling back again. Volume was heavy. The dollar was off a bit. I'm thinking about getting some gold share calls but will have to review things over the weekend. The XAU is oversold as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept long enough. Volatility has picked up and that has to be taken into consideration going forward. The market environment has changed. There's still 4 weeks to go in the February option cycle, so there's plenty of time to do something. We did break the uptrend line in the S&P 500 today that was in place for 6 months. Perhaps the market is concerned with what President Obama has been saying about the banks lately or maybe it's the concern over Ben Bernankes reconfirmation as Fed chief. You can't argue with the price movement though. There's lots to ponder over the weekend. It's Friday afternoon and time to relax for a while.

To the downside as the Dow dropped 213 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative. Summation index heading lower. The downside action was long overdue. So where do we head from here? My thinking short term is that we should stabilize now. Obama rattled the markets with his talk of banking regulation today. It won't happen overnight. We're getting short term oversold now. It may be time to short the rallies. Volatility has returned. Gold lost ground again, off about $10 and lower in the aftermarket. ABX and GG down over a buck each. NEM off 2. Volume was heavy. Oversold here now for sure. Not sure if getting long is a good idea because we have broken some long term support. However the gold/XAU signal is about to be triggered so I will have to ponder things. Volume picking up to the downside isn't a good sign though. Tough game. Mentally I'm tired, did not sleep enough but that will change. We're almost at some short term support for the overall market. Bounce and then a fall? Perhaps but that's just a guess. If the summation index remains to the downside, then OEX puts have to be seriously considered. Gold fell today and the dollar was little changed so perhaps there is something bigger going on there. No doubt that money is leaving the gold shares though. Support has been broken. One day left in a short week.

We saw some downside today as the Dow was off 200 points early. We ended the day with a loss of 122 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. So we gave back all we made yesterday. It's been a down, up, down market here and tomorrow will be important. If we head back down it could signify the end of the rally. The summation index has turned around again. We are also not making it through the longer downtrend line on the S&P that has been in place for quite a while. Since 2007 to be exact. So we are at an important moment in time. Gold got clobbered today, off over $25. The XAU fell 6 2/3. ABX off 1 3/4, GG and NEM down over 2. Volume was heavy. We've broken through the weekly uptrend line on the gold shares that's been in place since July. The trend is now down. The dollar had a good day in a flight to safety in my opinion. So perhaps the game has changed for gold. Time will tell but there is no reason to get long the gold shares at the moment. They will fall with the broader market. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep enough. Meetings again today took me away from the normal market routine and I have an early appointment tomorrow as well. But that should be it for the distractions for a while. It looks like we may finally have hit an inflection point for the markets this week. There will be opportunity and I'll try and take advantage of it.

We start the shortened week with a gain of 115 on the Dow, reversing Fridays price action. Volume was light to average and the advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. We still haven't broken through the longer term downtrend line convincingly but that could change this week. No OEX trades for now but I have noticed that the premiums on the puts are relatively higher than the calls. I'm leaning to the downside here. We'll see. Gold was up $5 and a bit more in the aftermarket. The XAU rose a point or so. ABX was off a bit on the day, while GG gained 1/2 and NEM 3/4. Volume was light. The dollar had a good day and gold was higher anyway. Perhaps due to the worldly unrest over the weekend. Whatever the reason, we are right at the uptrend line in place since last July on the gold shares. Will it hold? That is the question. It would be a good place to get long, if it does hold. I'm not so sure though, so I'm staying out for now. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept good. 5 weeks on the February options, so there is no rush to do anything. Another meeting tomorrow so I won't be in the usual market mode. This could just be a wait and see week for me. No solid market themes that I can detect here but that certainly doesn't mean that there aren't any. I'll check things overnight and go from there.

The Dow dropped 100 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. Downside here is overdue. The summation index turned lower today. OEX puts could be the next trade. We'll see. I'd like to see some sideways movement before we head down. That would be the ideal scenario. I'll check things out over the weekend. Gold lost $12 today and the XAU fell 3 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM were all down around a buck on average volume. The dollar was stronger today. If the overall market falls, so will the gold shares. We are right at the longer term uptrend line and it doesn't look like it will hold. The weekly charts now look bearish with this past weeks price action. I may take a look at the puts here as well. Mentally I'm feeling tired, have not been getting enough sleep. Monday after expiration is sometimes just the opposite of the preceding Friday. It's a holiday, so Tuesday will replace Monday. If we see some upside it could be time to start closely looking at the puts. For now it's the weekend and time for some much needed rest.

The Dow gained 30 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. Still grinding our way higher. That can't last forever. Expiration tomorrow. No good signals to trade for me here. So it's patience and the sidelines. Gold was up $6 but the XAU fell 1 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. The uptrend line since last July is still holding for the gold shares but I get the feeling it won't much longer. When gold itself rises and the gold shares don't show any gains, it's not a good sign. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. I was in a meeting most of the day and was not in my usual market routine. Same story tomorrow. We'll get through expiration and go from there.

Back to the upside as the Dow gained 53 points. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive and the volume was light. Uneventful really as the positive expiration bias is in effect. No OEX trades for now and there are no decent technical signals. Not overbought or oversold at the moment. Patience for now. Gold sold off early and then came back to be up $7 on the day. The XAU gained 2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. The dollar was a bit weaker. The uptrend line from July remains intact for now. I do not anticipate getting long here but you never know. Mixed technicals here as well. Plus there is an extra week on the February options. So there's no rush to do anything here. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. We're moving through January and still grinding our way higher in the stock indices. Gold is somewhat moving sideways. I'm looking for the next trade but do not have any solid ideas at the moment. That will change in time.

Finally a bit of some downside today as the Dow lost 36 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow. I don't think that this is the start of anything big to the downside just yet. We have held at the uptrend line that has been in place since mid-December. We will move quickly to short term oversold after today and it is expiration week which usually has a positive bias. So we'll see. Gold lost over $20 today and the XAU fell 6 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM all lost around 1 1/2 on what goes for average volume lately. The dollar didn't really do much today and was lower most of the day. I don't have any gold share trades in the works at the moment. I'm leaning towards the puts if we break the uptrend line that has been in effect since last July. We are hovering around it at this point. Mentally I'm doing OK, considering yesterdays problems. I did follow my trading rules and I can take that positive away from the experience going forward. There isn't much I can do about lousy or non-execution by the brokerage. Next time I'll make the adjustment if the stop-limit doesn't get filled and just go out at the market. That doesn't make taking the loss any easier but at least I had the proper feel of what was going on with the trade. That's a good thing. 3 days until expiration and the sidelines is where I am and probably where I'll be.

Overbought and staying there as the Dow gained 45 points. Volume was light and the advance/declines were positive. Grinding our way higher but we will need to see some type of downside soon just to relieve the overbought condition at the least. The market has refused to sell off. It is expiration week so anything can happen I guess. Gold had a good day, up $12. However the gold shares did not move well. The XAU only gained 7/8. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher early and then closed with just fractional gains. The dollar was weaker. So everything was present for the gold shares to have a stellar day and they didn't. That's troublesome. When we were higher at the open I adjusted the stop-loss order on the ABX calls to insure a profit. Imagine my surprise when we traded through the stop-loss price, back and forth and my order wasn't filled. That hasn't happened to me in 15 to 20 years. I contacted my brokerage but they didn't do anything. Here I did everything that I was supposed to, trying to insure a profit and it didn't happen. There usually isn't a problem with stop-loss orders but for some reason there was today. Needless to say it was very frustrating dealing with a know-nothing customer service rep at the brokerage. The non fill cost me a profit. It happened to me with the gold share index many, many years ago. I eventually bailed out of the ABX calls for a 25% loss instead of a 40% gain. Not the way that anyone would like to start the new year. I could not hold the position any longer though. 4 days left and a buck out of the money. Technicals overbought. A good day for gold and the gold shares sell off after a higher opening. Ominous signs if you ask me. But anything can happen. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough. So where do I go from here? I just had 3 chances for a profit on that trade and failed. I won't be blaming myself though. Lousy or non-existent trade execution isn't something that I can control. I did what I was supposed to today and for whatever reason it didn't work out. I'll bear this in mind going forward.

Well we finally got the employment report behind us. The Dow sold off but it wasn't a catastrophe and the market came back to finish up 11 points on the day. Volume was light and the advance/declines were positive. The market just keeps plowing higher. Summation index moving to the upside. The jobs report was worse than expected and we shrugged it off. It seems like a market that wants to go higher. Overbought here still and that won't last forever. We do have expiration week upon us next week and perhaps the positive bias will continue. Gold managed a $5 gain in the futures market but sold off a bit in the aftermarket. The XAU rose 2 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. The dollar sold off and I would have expected a much better move for gold today. It didn't happen. My ABX calls are slightly in the red. Never saw a pop to the upside to exit this trade. In fact it was a couple of ticks away from being stopped out at one point. It's a buck out of the money with just 5 days to go. I'll be looking to exit on Monday morning if we see some upside. My thinking is that we'll see some foreign selling of the dollar and buying of gold early Monday. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well or enough. The market is overbought and the technicals are at the tops of their channels. This condition can't go on forever. However the market continues to shrug off bad news and this implies higher prices. Gold is stopping at the 1140 level and will need to push through there for the ABX calls to show a profit. Or not. Things to ponder over the weekend. I'll view the charts and come up with a game plan for next week. It's Friday afternoon and time to unwind.

A slight push to the upside as the Dow gained 33 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. Overbought here but that doesn't mean there has to be a big decline if we get one. All eyes will be on tomorrows employment report. I can only guess at what the numbers will be. How the market reacts will be the key going forward. The market has tried to sell off since Mondays big gain but hasn't. We'll see. Gold lost some ground today, off about $3 and more in the aftermarket. The XAU fell 1 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on lighter volume. My ABX calls are right back to where I bought them. This has been an interesting trade with a couple of chances to get out at a profit. Now comes tomorrows news and golds reaction to it. ABX is the weakest of the group at this point. The relative strength has moved to GG. There's nothing to do now except wait for the employment report. I should bail out of this trade tomorrow unless there is a strong move to the upside. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Another day of hanging around as the Dow gained a point on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We are short term overbought. The summation index continues to head higher. It looks like the employment report could be the catalyst one way or the other at this point. I'm really not sure which way we will go here so there are no OEX trades before Friday. Gold had another good day, up $18. The XAU rose 4 3/4. ABX up 7/8, GG up 3/4 and NEM up a buck. Volume was nothing special. All these issues closed nowhere near their highs for the day. My ABX calls are back in the black. The daily technicals are overbought now. I really have to think about dumping these things tomorrow. Longer term looks positive but I don't know if I want to hold the calls into next week. Or even past tomorrow with the employment report looming. A lot to ponder this evening. Mentally I'm doing OK. So I'm holding a trade that is profitable with 7 days left in the January cycle. It's overbought but we all know when things get overbought they can stay there for a while. The overall market is short term overbought also. Decisions, decisions. The trades are never easy, win or lose.

The Dow lost 12 points today but we were off more for most of the day. Advance/declines were positive and the volume picked up a bit. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. Not exactly overbought yet but we're getting there. Might just be on hold until the employment report on Friday. No OEX trades for now. Gold was little changed but was up early. The XAU gained 2 points. The gold shares had fractional gains and the volume was nothing special again. We were lower at one point and I thought that I was going to be stopped out of the ABX call trade but we came back late in the day. The calls are back where I bought them. The dollar was up a bit. Here too we could just be waiting on Friday. I don't know if this trade will last that long though. I'll check things out tonight. Mentally I'm feeling OK, could have slept longer. I guess it's a waiting game now. 8 days on the January options and my calls are out of the money. We did get some buying in gold yesterday as expected but I haven't seen any follow through. Not overbought yet so there is a chance that this trade will still work. However time is not on my side now and the possibility of getting stopped out looms large. If so it's on to the next trade regardless and I don't have any ideas for that at the moment.

It was a bullish start to the new year as the Dow gained 155 points. Volume was light but the advance/declines were over 4 to 1 positive. We'll have to see how the rest of the week progresses. Summation index heading higher again. Not overbought short term just yet so we could see some more upside near term. We'll see. Gold had a good day, up over $20. The XAU rose 5 3/4. All the gold shares were up at least a buck with GG leading the way, up 1 1/3. Volume wasn't anything special though. The dollar was weaker today. ABX rallied a buck but my calls are still in the red by a touch. That's the dilemma now. 9 days to go and even a one point move in my favor didn't do much. I don't know how much longer I can stay in this trade really. I don't know if I can wait until Fridays employment report. Not overbought yet short term for the gold shares but I didn't like todays action. I'll check things out overnight. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. It's the start of a new trading year and I'm feeling optimistic that it should go well. I'll be keeping an eye on gold overnight and we'll take it from there. No OEX trades just yet but we are near the top of the technical indicators and channels. Doesn't mean we have to drop though. We'll see what the second trading day of the year brings tomorrow.

It was a quiet day to the downside until the last half hour today. Then the bottom fell out as the Dow lost 120 points. Volume was light again and the advance/declines were negative. We needed to see some downside, technically and we got it. You really can't tell what will happen next since this was such a thinly traded week. My guess is that we will head back to the upside but I'll have to mull things over the long weekend. Gold was up $3 but the XAU was flat. I suppose it wasn't too bad for the gold shares considering the overall markets drop. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. My ABX calls are solidly in the red now and close to getting stopped out. Any downside on Monday will probably end this trade with a loss. The time premium continues to get sucked out of this trade. In retrospect they should have been dumped earlier this week and I could buy them back later if I chose to do so. It is however, a long weekend. We'll see what happens. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. The 2009 trading year has come to a close and it wasn't a good one for me. My trading account was down 21%, which was almost a repeat of 2007 when I lost 25%. I have made some adjustments to my trading rules and it will be up to me to stick to them. There were many opportunities through out the year but my trading decisions never panned out as planned. My management of the trades is where most of the trouble was. I'm working on it. It is the toughest game in the world. There are no excuses. I'll go over the charts this weekend and be ready for Monday morning. For now though it's time to take a break over the long weekend. I'll be looking forward to a better trading year in 2010.

Another day of the blahs as the Dow gained 3 points. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was extremely light. The market tried to sell off but came back. I really think we need to see some downside tomorrow or we will be starting out the new year lower. That's my guess. We'll get through tomorrow and go from there. Gold dropped $5 and the XAU fell 1 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. My ABX calls are now in the red. Looks like I'll hang on until next year unless they get stopped out tomorrow. Obviously, I should have dumped them earlier and then bought them back if I wanted to try it again. This trade still could work but it isn't looking promising at this point. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough. Almost done with 2009 and it was a terrible trading year for me. I'll get the final details out tomorrow. Otherwise the market just isn't working off the overbought condition as it should. The break to new recovery highs has been on anemic volume. It isn't a positive at this point. On to the final trading day for 2009.

Another light volume exercise in waiting for next year as the Dow lost a point. Advance/declines about even again. I'm expecting some weakness and it will probably be soon. I don't think it's the beginning of anything big but we do have to work off the overbought condition of the market. Summation index still heading higher. Gold dropped about $10 today and the XAU fell 1 3/4. ABX and GG had fractional losses with ABX leading the way. NEM was flat. The volume was holiday light again. My ABX calls are back to break even. The technicals look like they are about to roll over so this could be another in the story of 2009 losing trades now. I have seen it time and time again this past year. There is no volume here though so there is still a chance that it will work in the beginning of the year. We'll see. The dollar was a bit stronger today. Mentally I'm doing OK. Perhaps I should have just waited until the new year to initiate this gold trade. The market seems even slower than usual for this time of year. 2 days left in 2009. I can't see any big rally until next week, if then. This has been a light volume rise and that is never sustainable in my opinion. So we'll see what happens.

It was a lackluster Monday as the Dow gained 27 points on holiday light volume. Advance/declines were about even. We're overbought here and I would expect some downside this week. There's not a lot of data out this week. And it's a short week. I probably should not even have an open position but what can you do? Gold was up 3 bucks and it really should have been more considering the events of the weekend. That's not a bullish sign. The XAU fell 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on very light volume. My ABX calls are still in the black but if we don't see some upside movement, the time premium will start to get sucked out of them. Plus if we start to get a drop in the overall market as I suspect, the gold shares will follow. So perhaps I won't be holding this position into the new year. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. So it's a short holiday week and you can't put much stock into what movement there is. Everyone is gearing up for the beginning of the year. My thinking was that there would be some who would want to position themselves in gold ahead of time but it doesn't look like it today. So I'll ponder things overnight and go from there.

Up another 53 points on this holiday shortened session. Volume was extremely light. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. We're moving higher but it is hard to get excited when the volume just isn't there. It could be a fake out. Overbought now as well. Gold had a good day, up $10 but the gold shares did not follow. The XAU was up 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves on very light volume. My ABX trade is still in the black. I'm really going to have to think about this one over the long weekend. Light volume rallies are never a good thing and that's what we've gotten here. Perhaps it is just a sign of the holiday times but I'm not so sure. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. I'll check the charts over the weekend and take it from there I guess. Happy Holidays everyone.

Not much today as the Dow gained a point on very light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow and that is a positive going forward. Summation index heading higher. It's got everything but volume. However it is a holiday week. Gold was up $7 on a weaker dollar but was off in the Aftermarket. The XAU rose 5 1/3. ABX and NEM were up 1 1/4, while GG tacked on 1 1/2. Volume was light. The gold shares seem to have started to act better than the metal itself. That could be a good sign. Or not. Usually it is. The ABX calls I purchased are in the black. Now the question is what to do next. I'm leaning towards taking the profit sooner rather than later but I will have to think it over. I'll at least be holding on until next week. Mentally I'm doing OK but feel a bit tired. Shortened trading session tomorrow and I wouldn't make much of what happens. It's holiday time and the major players aren't around. So it's time to take it easy.

Continuing higher as the Dow tacked on another 50 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was light. It's a light volume rally and they can never be trusted. However we are in the favorable period for a Santa Claus rally. Summation index heading higher as well. We really need a high volume breakout of the trading range one way or the other to determine where we are heading. Gold lost another $10 and was lower in the aftermarket. The XAU was flat, off 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light to average volume. The gold shares were weak early and my open order for January ABX calls was filled. The stop loss order has been placed. I originally wanted to hold this trade into the new year but it seems like we have entered a listless period for the gold shares and I may sell them before the end of the year if they aren't stopped out. Or I may just sell them anyway. The dollar was up a bit today. The gold shares are still oversold. So we'll see what happens. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. Definitely feeling better than yesterday. 2 days to go this week and I don't expect any huge moves. Maybe some backing and filling going into Christmas. That's it for today. We'll see how the ABX trade works out.

A good start to the week for the bulls as the Dow gained 85 points. Advance/declines were more than 2 to 1 positive and the volume was light. Still stuck in the trading range though. I don't see any high volume breakout occurring one way or the other until next year. I could be wrong though and often am. I'd expect the market to drift higher for the rest of the week. Gold was hit again today, down $15 and lower in the aftermarket. The XAU held up well, off 1 1/2. ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM dropped 1 1/4. Volume was average. The dollar was higher today. The gold shares held up better than the metal itself and that could be bullish going forward for the gold shares. I still have an order in for some ABX January calls though I did adjust it down a touch on the price. The longer term uptrend line is holding for now and we remain oversold. Mentally I'm doing OK but I'm not feeling that well today. A short trading week this week and next. The sidelines isn't a bad place to be but traders will be trying to position themselves for the start of the new year. I'm still going to give the gold share calls a try if my order is filled. So we'll see what happens.

It was a relatively quiet expiration as the Dow gained 20 points. Volume was pretty good and the advance/declines were positive. Perhaps this is the beginning of the Santa Claus rally. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. Still stuck in the trading range though. I don't really expect a breakout one way or the other until next year. Gold was up another $5 and the XAU rose 2 1/2. ABX and GG were up around a buck and NEM gained over 1/2. Volume was good. We are at the area where the gold shares should hold up and rally. I will be looking at the gold share calls next week on any weakness. The options didn't move much today even with 1 point moves in ABX and GG. There is a lot of time premium in the prices. I'm leaving in my open order for ABX calls. If we don't hold up here than that trade will be off. The dollar was strong early and then fell back. We reached the 78 level which was the target in my opinion. Checking the dollar chart, there is a chance we could go to 80. However I am sticking with the plan for the gold shares at these levels for now. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. A holiday week coming up and I expect that things will slow down. It makes for tough trading. However I think we are at a point where perhaps taking a risk in the gold share calls is warranted. I'll check the charts over the weekend. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. There is work to do before Monday though.

It wasn't quiet today as stocks fell 132 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative. Perhaps it was expiration related or maybe just getting the selling done before the holidays. We're now back at the bottom of the trading range. I thought we would break to the upside but perhaps I'm wrong again. Not oversold on a short term basis yet but we're getting there. Closed near the low of the day and that isn't positive. Gold got clobbered and took out the recent low as the dollar had a big day to the upside. The precious metal lost $28 and continued lower in the aftermarket. The XAU lost about 9. ABX down 1 1/2, GG off 2 and NEM lost 3. Volume was heavy. We have reached the longer term uptrend line that I was waiting for. Will it hold? Doesn't look like it with todays action. I have an order in for some January ABX calls and I'm leaving it open until it gets filled. The dollar has just about reached the 78 level which is where I believe it will stop. If it doesn't then I will have to readjust my thinking as to what is going on here. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I really don't think that today is the start of any big sustained decline. I think we'll get a Santa Claus rally and good money flow input at the beginning of next year. That's my guess for now. But the market can and will do anything. We'll see about expiration Friday and go from there.

The Dow dropped 10 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were higher for most of the day until the Fed and then we fell. Really not much is happening here as the trading range market continues. Just how long is this going to go on I wonder? The Fed said nothing new and sideways we go. It will be interesting once we break out. When that is, is anybodies guess. With a holiday week coming up I don't see any change of the current scenario until next year. I could be wrong. Gold bounced, up $13. The XAU rose 2 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains with ABX leading the way. The relative strength lately has been with ABX. Volume was nothing special. I did not try the December gold share calls today and will wait for the January options. The dollar sold off early and then came back. I would really like to see the gold shares return to the longer term uptrend line for me to place a trade. There is no rush but I'll be keeping an eye on them. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep long enough. So it's a waiting game for now. Expiration in 2 days and then a short week. I'd expect volume to dry up but who knows? My next trade will be some gold share calls unless there is a solid signal in the OEX or a high volume breakout from the trading range.

The Dow lost 49 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were due for some type of pullback with the short term overbought condition. Now it's a toss up as to which way we go from here. Fed tomorrow and I wouldn't expect any surprises. But you never know. I am not going to try any OEX trades with 3 days left and a neutral technical condition. Gold was flat today and the XAU lost over 3 points. ABX dropped 3/4, GG lost 2/3 and NEM fell a buck. Volume was light. I did place an order for GG December calls but it wasn't filled. Gold held up well today despite a very good up move in the dollar. I think that perhaps a short term gold share trade could work. The technicals are very oversold on a daily basis for the gold shares. A bounce is due. There's only 3 days left though. I might try to do it again early tomorrow morning. I have to mull things over tonight. It's risky. Mentally I'm feeling OK, could have slept more. The question is whether to try this gold trade or not. I'll monitor things overnight and go from there. I still like the January gold share trade and may just look for an opportunity there. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

We started the week off with a gain as the Dow rose 29 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. We're getting short term overbought here but that doesn't mean that we can't go higher. We are at the top of the trading range. Will we break out to the upside? Stay tuned. Fed on Wednesday could be the catalyst. Or not. That is the type of market environment at the moment. Perhaps I'll try the OEX puts but I doubt it. Gold was up $4 and the XAU rose 2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. Oversold here but still not at the rising trend lines. I don't think I'll be trying anything for December but I'll have to see what tomorrow brings. Running out of time for sure but it is possible that the Fed will be a catalyst here as well. The dollar was a bit weaker today. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept pretty good. So we have 4 days left which is enough time for a short term trade, which really isn't my best type. It would probably be best to stay on the sidelines but we'll see. I still am in the mindset of getting some January gold share calls. The technicals are oversold on a daily basis, neutral on a weekly basis. Let's see what happens on Tuesday.

We continued higher today as the Dow gained 65 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. It's been a lackluster move to the upside so far. Expiration week coming up and it could have the usual positive bias. We are still in the trading range though and moving back up towards the top of it. With the holidays fast approaching I can't see any big moves coming up in the near term but anything can happen I guess. Gold futures lost $6 and continued lower in the aftermarket. The XAU fell 3 2/3. ABX off 1 1/2, GG off 1 and NEM off 1/2. Volume was light. Nobody was rushing in to buy as was the case just a couple of weeks ago. The dollar had another good day and closed the week near the highs. We are getting close to an uptrend line for the golds shares. I'll be getting some GG or ABX calls when we get there. I'm not ruling out the Decembers if we get there early next week. But most likely I'll be going out to January. There is no guarantee that the uptrend line will hold but we should see at least a bounce there. So we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The Fed next week will be the main focus and that isn't until Wednesday. Trading the December options will be risky. I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there. There may or may not be opportunity. We could just move sideways as well. But it's the weekend now and time for a rest.

The Dow continued to the upside with a gain of 68 points today. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. We opened higher and traded sideways for the rest of the day. So it continues. The major averages are stuck in a range and we wait for the breakout. My guess is that we're going to move to the upside eventually. But it is just a guess. The medium term indicators are move oversold than overbought. Gold stabilized, was up $5 today and stronger in the aftermarket. The XAU was only up 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves both ways on light volume. I still may try something for December but am leaning towards the January gold share calls. The dollar was a touch higher today. The gold shares are oversold here but I'd like to wait for next week to do something. We'll see. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. 6 days until the December expiration, so the risk is high. We've got the Fed next week as well. I don't expect any surprises but you never know. We could also just meander around in the trading range as we have been. We'll see what happens Friday and go from there.

A bounce to the upside as the Dow gained 51 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We traded down to the low end of the sideways channel and have bounced up. The market has been in this trading range for almost a month. Once it breaks out one way or the other, it should be a big move. It's probably best to wait and see what happens. Once we break out then it's just a matter of getting on board. Gold was down $20 on the futures but came back in the aftermarket. The XAU rose 4 1/2 points. ABX up 3/4, GG up 1 and NEM up 1 1/3. Volume was average. I did leave in an overnight order for some December ABX calls but it wasn't filled. We'll see what kind of bounce we get here. The dollar was a bit weaker on the day. We're oversold on the gold shares. I still like the January calls and will be getting some here soon. Next week could be the best time but we'll see. It's possible I'll try Decembers again if things line up right. Mentally I'm feeling fine. One of the problems to deal with here is that things could really slow down at the end of the year. After next weeks expiration the volatility could shrink. That won't help the option prices. I don't know what will happen but it would not surprise me if we moved into a lackluster trading pattern. So that must be considered going forward as well. We'll see if we can build on todays gains tomorrow.

It was a downer Tuesday as the Dow lost 104 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. Still in the sideways channel but near the lower end. Will we break down here? I don't know. Getting short term oversold but not there yet. Maybe it's a chance to get long the December OEX calls. Maybe not. I'm indecisive here so unless there is a solid signal, I'm on the sidelines. Gold continues to fall, down $20 and dropping in the aftermarket. ABX down almost 2, with GG and NEM off 1 1/2. Volume was average. The dollar had another good day. Oversold here for sure and I'm thinking about perhaps playing the bounce that will inevitably occur. However I am going to buy some January gold share calls when the XAU hits my downside target. We are almost there already which concerns me. But I'm going to give it a shot. Next week would be ideal but if we get there this week, I'll be buying some calls. Mentally I feel OK, slept well enough. My thinking is that the decline or sideways movement we are seeing now is setting up for a January rally. But that's a guess. The market will go where it wants. I may leave in an overnight order for some gold share calls. I'll be checking the charts tonight.

The Dow was up a point today as we closed about in the middle of the days trading range. In other words, indecision. Volume was nothing special and the advance/declines were positive. The S&P along with the NASDAQ were lower. We will break out of the trading range eventually and it's probably a wise move to wait until that happens. Which doesn't mean that I will of course. However I have no OEX trades in mind right now. Gold continued lower, off $5 on the futures and lower in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 3 points. ABX and NEM had fractional losses after being lower early. GG lost about a buck. Volume was pretty good again. I'd expect a bounce here soon but don't think that I'll try and play it. I'm going to look at the January calls. That should be the next trade as of now. But you never know. The dollar bounced around today and closed lower. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 9 days in the December option cycle. I'll look things over again tonight but I don't see any decent signals at the moment. Not a lot of data out this week. We've got the Fed rate decision next week. So it still looks like a time to be patient for now. We'll see.

An interesting day as we opened higher, gave it all back and then some, only to return to the upside by the end of the day. The Dow gained 22 points on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. The employment report was much stronger than expected which caused markets to move with volatility. We are still in a sideways trading range with regards to the S&P, even with all the gyrations today. No OEX trades still. I don't have any good signals yet. Perhaps before the December expiration. Gold got hammered as the dollar rose on the employment news. Gold lost about $50 and continued lower in the aftermarket. The XAU fell 10 1/2. ABX off over 4, GG and NEM fell 2 3/4. Volume was heavy. I still like a January trade in the calls here and will be looking for an entry point in the next 2 weeks. Perhaps the game has changed here for a while. I'll check the charts over the weekend. Gold did go parabolic and a drop was to be expected. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well. Now the employment report is out of the way. The overall market has been stronger than the Dow and that could be a sign of good things to come on the bullish side. We will break out of this trading range eventually one way or the other. I'll be looking over the charts this weekend and take it from there. For now, it's time for a break.

Opened higher and closed lower and that isn't really a bullish sign as the Dow lost 86 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. We are still moving sideways. Tomorrows employment report could be the catalyst to get us out of this trading range. Or not. I have no OEX trades on my radar. We are not overbought or oversold here, just muddling along. Gold was up another $5 today but the XAU fell 4 1/2 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all down around a buck on average volume. The dollar was a touch higher. I'll get long the gold shares on a pullback. That is the game plan for now. No hurry though as we are very overbought here. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep enough. So was today a precursor of what the markets reaction will be to the employment report. Stay tuned. So far we haven't broken through the long term downtrend lines on the S&P. When we do it will be quite a rally but it hasn't happened yet. Perhaps at the beginning of next year but that is a guess. The market will go where it wants. On to tomorrow.

Kind of a sideways day as the Dow lost 19 points. The overall market was stronger. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive and the volume was light. Fed minutes were released but they were not a market mover. I think we're in a holding pattern until the employment report on Friday. I have no OEX trades in mind. Gold continues higher, up $12. The XAU rose 4 1/4. ABX was up almost 2, GG up over a buck and NEM was the laggard finishing flat on the day. The dollar was a bit higher. Gold has gone parabolic and the money just continues to flow there. The volume is really good on the rallies. How high can it go? Who knows? I think that I'll just get long the next time the indicators move toward oversold since they never really seem to get there. Perhaps. I do want to have some calls before the beginning of next year because my thinking is that the new year money will flock to the precious metal. I could be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. The market and summation index have been moving sideways for a few weeks. Perhaps the employment report will break us out of the range. Some of the major indexes are also at long term resistance. If we move to the upside it should be significant. So we'll see what happens. The market also shrugged off the Dubai bad news and that is bullish. Perhaps the OEX calls are the play. I'll mull things over tonight.

It was a positive start to the new month as the Dow gained 126 points. Volume was average and the advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. The summation index continues to frustrate me as it is moving basically sideways. There's nothing I can do about that. Perhaps I should have realized that the money flow would be coming into the markets. The Dubai event was not sustainable to the downside. It's always easy to look back and say what you should have done. Doesn't matter. The markets keep moving along. Gold had a great day and crossed $1200, up 17 on the day. The XAU rose 9. ABX up 3 1/3, GG up 2 3/4 and NEM up 2. All on heavy volume. Missed that window of opportunity as well. But gold is so overbought at the moment that it can't end well when it does. But who knows? The dollar lost ground again. As oversold as the indicators are in the dollar, they are just as overbought for gold. I don't plan on doing anything there after todays action. Mentally I'm not feeling 100%. Could have slept better. It seems as though I am just waiting for next year at this point. That may not be the best plan of action. However I don't have a good feel for what's going on at the moment. I'm not going to press things. If there's a decent signal one way or the other in the December cycle, I'll act on it. Otherwise I'll wait it out.

The Dow gained 35 points to close out the month of November. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was light. So perhaps that is it for the fallout from Dubai. We'll see. I don't expect any big rally from here but you never know. Beginning of the month positive money flows should affect things for the next couple of days as we wait for the employment report on Friday. No OEX trades for now. Gold was up $7 today as the dollar lost a bit of ground. The XAU had a fractional gain. The gold shares were mixed with fractional gains and losses for ABX, GG, NEM. Volume was light. My next trade should be here but I would like to see some consolidation or pullback first. I'm also leaning towards going out to the January calls. Time will tell. Nothing doing for now. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well. We're moving into December and I have pretty good losses for the year. There will be no miracle trades to save the day. I'm looking forward to the new year and a fresh start. I still may make another trade before the year ends but things will have to line up just right. I don't have any clear signals at the moment but that could change. On to tomorrow.

What was supposed to be a quiet holiday shortened session was anything but as the Dow lost 154 on very light volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The country of Dubai is threatening to default on its debt. World markets had a tough day on Thanksgiving and the US market mirrored that today. I don't know what it means for Monday but the summation index should be heading south after today. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend. Gold took a hit as well, down $18. The XAU fell 7 1/4. ABX and NEM dropped 1 1/2, while GG lost 2. Volume was light. All were off even more early. The dollar was higher but not as much as you'd expect with a flight to safety move. I'll need to look at these charts over the weekend as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK, trying to get some rest. But obviously with the recent Dubai development, there is much to do. Is this an opportunity to get long or is this the beginning of a long awaited sustained move to the downside? That's the question of the moment. I'm still going to relax for a couple of days and then see what happens Sunday night when the world starts up again. This is probably some type of opportunity. Taking advantage of it is the trick.