Monday, March 15, 2010
A one day reversal to the upside as the Dow gained 17 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were down over 50 points early. That is when I should have dumped the OEX puts I own for a loss. It is always easy to look back. But I'm still holding them here, waiting on the Fed tomorrow. It isn't a wise strategy. The market simply continues to grind higher and it is expiration week. That usually implies a positive bias. So I do have another stop loss order in and it will be filled if we have a strong open tomorrow. We'll see. Gold was up a few bucks today even with a stronger dollar. The XAU fell 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. No trades for the gold shares here for me. I will probably let the month of March pass for gold trades unless there is a decent signal. Maybe get long at the end of the month. Mentally I'm disappointed in myself for not just taking the loss today on the OEX trade. It obviously isn't going to work and it looks like I'll be taking a better than 50% loss again. It doesn't make any sense to have trading rules if you don't have the discipline to follow them. This is one of my major trading flaws. Has been for years. Despite that I've still managed to do OK but the trading results could be so much better. It always seems to be a work in progress. There is nobody to blame but myself and that's how it is when you're a trader. The mental capital lost with losing trades is more important than the money. The money doesn't come up with the ideas, you do. So I will have to continue to work on myself. We'll see what happens with the Fed tomorrow and go from there. I would not be surprised if we go on up to new recovery highs.
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