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Monday, February 01, 2010

Finally a decent bounce as the Dow gained 118 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. Oversold bounce? Beginning of the month money flows? You can take your pick but it was bound to happen. Now is the decline over? That is the question. I still would like to try the OEX puts before the employment report on Friday. If we continue higher into the close on Wednesday then I will give them a try. As the McClellan oscillator makes its way back to the zero line. That is the key. To try and remain patient for the next couple of days and see what happens. Gold had a stellar day as well, up over $20. The XAU rose over 8 points. It was bound to happen with a decent Gold/XAU buy signal and the oversold condition. ABX and GG were up over 1 1/2, with NEM up 2 3/4. Volume was light but you can't argue with the price movement. The dollar lost a bit of ground but not much. I almost bought some ABX calls on Friday after I had gotten stopped out of the previous trade. But almost counts for nothing. I may try the gold shares again for the February cycle later this month. Mentally I'm doing good, slept well. So I'm sticking with my bearish scenario for later this week barring a market melt-up prior to then. But I could be wrong and that must be considered as well. Perhaps the decline is over. However if we remain positive going into Friday we will have worked off the oversold condition and perhaps will go back down for a retest of last Fridays lows. Time will tell.

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