Continuing to the downside with the Dow losing 119 points. Advance/declines were 9 to 1 negative and the volume picked up to the downside. Oversold and staying there. I get the feeling that the tone of the market has changed. We should have had some type of bounce by now. Perhaps it is end of the month shenanigans but it seems like something more. Summation index solidly pointing down. Get OEX puts on a bounce? Perhaps. Gold lost $5 and a bit more in the aftermarket. The XAU fell over 8. ABX, GG and NEM were all off 1 1/2 on increased volume. My order for GG calls was filled. The stop-loss order has been put in. Now I'm not so sure I even want to be in this trade. However we are oversold, earnings for ABX and NEM are out tomorrow along with the GDP report. That may not mean anything though if we continue to slide. The dollar has found some buyers lately too. I may be exiting this trade sooner rather than later. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I am determined not to lose more than 50% on any trade from here on out. This had been implemented before but I would override it. No more. This will save me from the inevitable huge losses that occurred when I couldn't admit that I was wrong. The market goes where it wants and I think we're witnessing that right now. Tomorrow will be key. Deeply oversold and we need to see some upside.

Kind of a sideways type of day as the Dow gained 14 points while the overall markets were weaker. Volume was average and the advance/declines were negative. Summation index still pointing lower. Oversold here so I would expect at least some type of bounce soon. GDP on Thursday and that will be a mover in my opinion. Is it too late for some OEX puts? we'll see. Gold lost $7 in the futures market but came back a bit in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 2 1/4. ABX and NEM were flat, while GG lost 3/4. All on average volume. Earnings on Thursday as well for ABX and NEM. The dollar had a slight gain today. Oversold on the gold shares here and that has been a buying opportunity for the past few months. I'm leaving in an open order for the November GG calls. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. We are getting very oversold on the McClellan oscillator and I would expect at least some type of bounce soon. I'm getting the feeling this decline may be more than what we have seen lately but I've been consistently wrong this year. This could just be an end of October phenomenon. We'll know soon enough.

A weak start to the week as the Dow lost 104 points. Advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative and the volume was average. Getting to oversold here but the summation index is still pointing down. Is this the expected correction that I've been looking for? I've said that before. The overall trend is still up for now but that could change. We've got the end of the month coming up at the end of the week. I think the GDP number this week will be the biggest data point. No OEX trades for now. Gold took a hit, down $13 on the futures. The XAU lost 6 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all lost around 1 1/2 on average volume. ABX and NEM earnings out on Thursday. The dollar was higher today. There is a lot of talk about the dollar beginning to rally here, for whatever reasons. This happened a few weeks ago as well and then the dollar hit fresh lows. I did place an open order in for some GG November calls. We'll see what happens. Oversold in the gold shares here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Trying to gauge if this is the time to make a trade. The open order that I have placed is much lower than where the option price is at the moment. Not much risk in leaving it open for now. We'll see what Tuesday brings.

Back to the downside as the Dow lost 109 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. Moving sideways for now and deciding which way to go I suppose. Summation index still pointing down. Can't say I have a good feel for what's about to happen here but I'm leaning towards the lower prices argument. But who knows? We'll see the reaction to the data out next week. Gold lost a couple bucks as the dollar had a bounce. The XAU lost 2 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all fractionally lower on light volume with GG leading the way. Some earnings out next week. I may try the gold share calls next week. Just about getting to short term oversold there. I'll mull things over the weekend. Mentally I'm doing OK. On the sidelines and rewriting my trading rules. Still 4 weeks on the November options so this was a good week to just sit tight. I'll be checking the charts for the next couple of days and take it from there. For now it's time for a break.

Back to the upside as the Dow climbed 132 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. The summation index rolled over yesterday so todays market action is puzzling. My inclination is to not believe the rally but that hasn't been the case for quite some time. We are still in a sideways channel here for the major indices. No trades on the horizon at the moment in the OEX. Gold lost $5 today as the dollar stabilized. The XAU didn't do much. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. If anything, I might try the gold share calls. Earnings out next week for ABX and NEM. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It looked to me as though the Dow was stronger than the overall market today. The advance/declines were not as strong as you would expect for a market up over 100 points. Perhaps it's a warning sign. So I'm really in no hurry to put on a trade here. I'm going over my trading rules and will be making some changes. That is something positive, hopefully, that has come from this years trading account carnage. We'll get through Friday and go from there.

The Dow fell apart in the last hour and closed with a loss of 92 points. We were higher for most of the day. Volume looks a bit better than lately and the advance/declines were negative. Perhaps the summation index is about to fall off of the ledge. Time will tell and it will tell soon. We are long overdue for a sustained decline. But who knows? we could turn around tomorrow. Still overbought on a medium term basis. Gold was up $5 on the futures but the XAU was little changed. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on average volume. All were up over the course of the day and sold off near the end of the day as well. I'm looking at the gold shares but no trades are imminent. The dollar hit fresh lows and that is the same old story. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept better. No rush to trade here as my many losses this year have caused me to re-evaluate my trading methods and I'm in the process of coming up with some changes to my rules. Following the rules is tougher than making them. However the discipline that has been lacking in my trading this year must be addressed. As well as the excessive risk taking. I'm working on it.

The Dow lost 50 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. We're moving sideways at the moment. Is it a pause before we move higher? That's been the case for quite some time. We are almost at some important long term down trend lines. We will need to see volume pick up in order to break through them. I'm not sure that will happen. The summation index is moving sideways here as well, possibly forming a ledge. The market usually breaks down if that is the case. Hasn't happened yet. Gold was flat on the day, while the XAU lost almost 4 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all down around a buck on light volume. The dollar was higher today. There's nothing to suspect that the up trend in gold is in danger at the moment. I'd like to get long the gold shares at some point. Mentally I'm feeling OK. No rush to take any positions. I'd have to get a good signal one way or the other in order to do something. Not that the signals I follow have worked out for me this year. I'm on the sidelines until further notice.

The market continues to climb as the Dow gained 96 points. Advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive and volume looks to be a bit light. We are at some long term weekly downtrend lines in the major indices. If we break through to the upside, it's going to be more of the same up, up and away. Hasn't happened yet but at this rate, nothing is bothering the market. We'll see what happens this week. A lot of earnings reports due out. Gold was up $6 and moved higher in the aftermarket. The XAU gained 1 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional moves to the upside on light volume. The dollar hit fresh lows. This song and dance remains the same. Again I wonder that this can't go on forever. But it is for now. No sense in fighting the trends. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. No trades on the horizon. An extra week in the November option cycle. We remain overbought and that hasn't produced a sustained drop in quite some time. So I'll be on the sidelines until further notice. Perhaps try something in gold if we get a pullback. But I've said that before.

A little downside today as the Dow lost 67 points on expiration Friday. Volume was average and the advance/declines were negative. We got some poor earnings reports from IBM and GE. At least they were viewed as poor regardless of what the numbers were. We were way overbought anyway. Summation index is moving sideways at this point. I can't say that I have a good grasp of what is going on, as I have had many losing trades this year. We can't stay overbought forever though. Gold was flat and so were the gold shares. The XAU was up 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other. Volume was nothing special. The dollar was up a touch. Gold is overbought as well. I'd still like to get long here at some point. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. Another expiration has passed as we move to the November cycle. There is an extra week on the November options, so I'll be in no rush to put on a trade. I may be done for the year anyway. I'll look over things this weekend and go from there. It's time to take it easy and enjoy the weekend.

Moving yet higher as the Dow gained 47 points. Advance/declines were about even and the volume was average. Overbought on a short and medium term basis. The summation index is starting to move to the upside. I can't imagine that this can last much longer but I've been wrong all year long. Expiration tomorrow. Gold took a drop today, down $14 even with the dollar a bit weaker. The XAU fell 3 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM all lost around a buck or so one way or the other. Volume was light. The inflation data today was benign which doesn't help the price of gold. It's been quite a run in gold as well. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. No trades on the horizon as I could be done for the year. Possibly breaking through to the upside of long term weekly downtrend lines. I'll need to check the charts. Volume hasn't been anything that great on this rise but you cannot deny the price movement. We'll see how we close out the week.

The Dow took off to the upside today, gaining 145 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. I dumped the OEX puts for yet another loss. It was around an 80% loss. This is shaping up as my worst year ever, since the early days when I did not have a lot of money and would blow up my account on a regular basis. Overbought and staying there. It looks like we are breaking a long term downtrend line on a weekly basis. That is bullish. Just how high can we go? Gold was flat and the XAU as well. ABX, GG and NEM were little changed on light volume. The dollar continued lower today. Inflation data out tomorrow morning. The gold shares did not participate on the upside today and with the dollar weaker that is a surprise. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep all that well. It was another losing trade closed today. The story of my year. I'm down over 30% so far for this years trading. That could be it for me this year. Nothing is working at the moment. It's only the middle of October. I guess I'll have to take a step back and re-evaluate where to go from here. My confidence is shot at the moment. That doesn't help things. We'll see what happens tomorrow but we can't go up forever, can we?

We sold off early and came all the way back today as the Dow lost about 15 points. Volume was average while the advance/declines were negative. 3 days to go and my OEX puts are running out of time. However I am committed to waiting for Thursday at this point. Some data out tomorrow including the FOMC minutes. Still overbought here but that hasn't meant anything lately. Intel earnings after the bell today as well. We'll see. Gold continues with its breakout, up another $7 on the futures. The XAU rose 3 points. ABX and GG were up about 1/2 on average volume. NEM rose a bit over a point. The dollar fell again today. Everyone seems to want to be long gold now. That won't last forever. No mistaking that I missed that move though and had plenty of chances. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'm somehow still believing in this OEX trade but time is running out. However I've been wrong so many times this year it could just be another false hope. I'll know in the next couple of days.

A somewhat quiet Monday as the Dow gained 20 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was light. I almost bought some more OEX puts today. This has been an extremely light volume rise over the past 6 days. I do not trust it to be real. My OEX puts are losers but I do believe we will be getting a decent decline between now and the close on Thursday. I purchased too early. That's my belief at the moment. Now I could be wrong and we could break out to new recovery highs again. We'll see what happens going forward. Gold continues higher as the dollar dropped today. The precious metal was up $8 today but the XAU lost 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM were all about unchanged on light volume. Overbought here but that hasn't meant anything for gold lately. I'd like to get long if we get a pullback. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept good. The stock market is short term overbought here and just about medium term overbought as well. I really think puts are the way to go this week, even with the expiration positive bias factor. Today was a partial holiday so we'll see how things go tomorrow when all the players have returned. No real data until Wednesday. 4 days to go on the October option cycle. I suppose that I am going to hold these puts until Thursday barring some blow-off rise tomorrow. Anything can happen in this game.

The Dow closed at the high of the day and high for the week. The Dow was up 78 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. My OEX puts are in the red. Too early I suppose. There's a bank holiday on Monday as well. I am still not a believer in this advance in the Dow. The volume is light. I could be wrong and probably am considering the year I've had. Short term overbought here now but that doesn't mean that it can't last another day or so. This trade is in trouble. Gold lost a bit today, down $7. The XAU lost around a point. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. That implies that the trend is still up. The dollar had a good day but the gold shares did not sell off that bad. Overbought here as well but perhaps the gold shares will move higher for the October expiration and I'm afraid that the overall market could do the same thing. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'll need to figure out where to put the stop loss order in for this OEX trade so I don't get completely killed again. It's frustrating but what can you do? Expiration week is upon us and it usually has a positive bias in the beginning. I smell another losing trade. It's the weekend and I'll check the charts and go from there. Time for a rest.

The Dow gained 61 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. We are getting short term overbought but that doesn't mean we can't stay there. However, I did purchase some OEX puts today. I believe that the volume so far this week has been light and we will roll over to the downside. The summation index did move back to the upside today and that could be a caveat. So we'll see what happens. The ideal scenario would be to hold these puts until expiration. Gold had another good day and continues to make record highs. It was up over $10. The XAU gained 2 1/2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on average volume. I would have thought that these issues would have done better considering the move in gold. The dollar hit a fresh new low for this downside leg in the index. That looks like it was the trade to be in really. But what can you do? Gotta keep moving on. There will be other opportunities there. Mentally I'm feeling pretty tired. Did not sleep enough. Well, now I'm in another trade and hopefully I'll manage it better than the last one. The market will do what it wants. 6 days on the October option cycle. We'll see how it goes.

The Dow tried to sell off today but came all the way back to end the day off by 5 points. Volume was light and the advance/declines were positive. My order for OEX puts was not filled overnight and I canceled it near the close. I will probably come up with another overnight order but I'm not sure that the short side is the way to go just yet. That said, the summation index is moving to neutral. We aren't short term overbought yet but we're getting there. I'll ponder things tonight. Gold was up another $4 and the XAU gained 2 1/2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on average volume. Obviously gold was the place to be. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep long enough. 7 days left in the October option cycle. There is a chance that we just run up to new recovery highs here as well. I may stick with my original scenario though and look for some downside soon.

Another good day for the markets as the Dow gained 131 points. Advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive while the volume was average. We've gotten a decent bounce and if my prognosis for lower prices is correct, that should be about it. However the possibility remains that I could be wrong and the decline is over. In that case we will be going on to a new recovery high. The summation index has not turned around yet so I'm sticking with the bearish case for now. I have an open order in for some OEX puts. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Gold had a great day, up over $20 to a new all time high. The XAU rose 10 points. I cannot believe how many times I have missed out on gold. I was there but did not have the conviction to just get long. I really need to work on that. ABX up 2, GG up 2 1/3 and NEM up 3 all on good volume. The dollar fell again and is at support. If it doesn't hold, gold will go much higher I think. However if the market turns around here and starts to fall again, the dollar will see some buying. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. So gold is taking off and I'm not in it again. The weekly gold share charts looked bearish and the market just turned around. However the daily dollar chart was overbought. At any rate, where we go from here is what matters. I'm sticking with the bearish OEX scenario for the October option cycle. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

We got the expected bounce today as the Dow rose 112 points. Advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive and the volume was average. It's now when things get interesting. Is this just a bounce in a decline or the start of another leg up? Answer that correctly and you' ll make some money in the next 2 weeks. I'm inclined to think that it's the former and I'll be looking to get some OEX puts this week. But that's not etched in stone. Gold had a good day on the US dollars decline. The precious metal gained $13 and the XAU rose 5 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all up around a buck with GG leading the way. Volume wasn't impressive though. If my overall market weakness scenario is correct, then the gold shares will be dropping back once again. I like the gold shares still though but the weekly charts look bearish. So I'm on the sidelines there even though I put in an overnight order for some GG calls last night. Obviously it wasn't filled as the gold shares rose from the start of trading today. Mentally I'm doing OK. Slept well enough. As I looked things over this weekend it appeared that gold could be in for another short term rise here. However it looks like gold is leading the gold shares and that is never a sign of a longer term move. At least not in my experience. We'll see what happens there. I'm going to be looking at getting some OEX puts on Wednesday. That is the game plan at this point. Market action will dictate whether that trade is worth doing when the time comes.

We sold off early and tried to come back all day but the Dow closed with a loss of 21 points. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative and the volume was average. Considering how weak the employment report was, it could have been worse. However we are pretty oversold here and a bounce is expected here in the next day or so. We are also at the 50 day moving average on the OEX so some type of support can be expected here. I don't think it will last though. Summation index still pointing down. Gold was up a few bucks on a weaker dollar. But it wasn't the expected rally after a weak employment report. The XAU was off about 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on average volume. They were higher early. The weekly charts look bearish for the gold shares but I did put in an order for some GG calls today and it wasn't filled. I may try again next week but we'll have to see. I need to check things out over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 2 weeks left in the October cycle and I'd really like to try something here. The market seems to have gotten pretty weak all of a sudden. I'm going to have to continue to believe that rallies can be shorted. If we even get a rally. So perhaps trying anything from the long side here isn't a good idea. I'm going to study the charts over the weekend and come up with a game plan for next week. For now, it's time for a break.

Well, the decline began in earnest today as the Dow lost 203 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. Rallies can be shorted. We are pretty oversold here so a bounce is in order but it will be short lived in my opinion if it happens. Summation index pointing down. I did end up putting in an overnight order for some OEX puts but it wasn't filled. I'll wait for some type of bounce and try again. Employment report tomorrow. Gold lost $8 today and the XAU fell 7 1/2. The dollar gained some ground today. Flight to safety already? ABX lost 1 3/4, GG dropped 1 7/8 and NEM off 1 1/2. All on average volume. The gold shares are at support here and a break would not be good for the bullish case. I'll be keeping an eye on them. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. So the employment report will be tomorrows focus and we go from there. I have no idea what the number will be but it is the markets reaction that will be key. I don't plan on putting on any trades tomorrow but you never know.

The market is trying to make up its mind here as the Dow lost about 30 points on end of the month good volume. Advance/declines were negative. The market dropped hard early and then came all the way back. That isn't really negative action. Summation index still heading lower. I'm in a bit of a quandary as to what exactly to do here. I'm still leaning to the downside but I may wait until the employment report actually comes out before I make a trade. We'll see. Gold had a good day, up $15 on the futures. However the XAU only managed a 2 point gain. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on average volume. The dollar was weaker and oil had a good day. So what should I do with the gold shares? If my downside scenario proves correct, there will be a cheaper entry point for a long side trade. If not, it looks like I'll miss it again. Mentally I'm a bit confused as to what to do here but I'll be giving it a lot of thought tonight and tomorrow. Could this just be another sideways consolidation before we move higher again? Or is it really going to be a correction? These questions have to be answered. Staying on the sidelines is also an option but the least desirable. There's absolutely no money to be made doing nothing. Of course you don't lose anything either. More tomorrow.

No follow through to the upside as the Dow lost 47 points on average volume. Advance/declines were about even. I'm still leaning to the downside once we get tomorrow out of the way. I'm looking at the OEX puts again before Fridays employment report. That is the game plan for now. Anything could happen however. Gold was flat today but the XAU rose 4 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all up a buck and change on average volume. The dollar was up a bit. I don't know what to make of the action today in the gold shares. End of the month positioning perhaps? I still like the gold shares and perhaps if we get them down again I'll give them a try. I'll be looking at the GG October calls. If my prognosis for the stock market to fall here happens, then it will give me a chance to pick up some of the gold share calls. We'll see. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. I'm trying to remain patient here and it is working so far. I'll need to check the summation index later tonight. I get the feeling that I am going to put on some sort of trade before Friday. What that trade is, is the question.

A Monday rally as the Dow gained 124 points on what looks like light volume. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. Are we going to move to new recovery highs this week? I wish I knew. I'm still leaning to the downside here and may purchase some OEX puts again. Wednesday would be the day to buy them unless we just rocket up from here. Employment report out on Friday. Beginning of the month positive money flows start this week too. I haven't decided what to do just yet. Gold gained a couple bucks today, while the XAU was up 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM were flat today on light volume. They all were higher early. The charts don't look all that promising for the upside here but I still like the gold shares. Not just yet though. That could change by the end of the week. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. There is some indecision here on my part. I'm going to have to let the market tell me what to do. I don't trust light volume rallies and that is what today looks like. The summation index hasn't turned around yet either but that doesn't mean it can't. Also rallies that are sharp and appear out of nowhere are more of a bear market phenomenon. So there are some crosscurrents happening as far as I'm concerned at the moment. I'm going to try and stay patient.

The Dow continued to the downside with a loss of 42 points on average volume today. Advance/declines were negative. We are short term oversold here and I would expect a bounce early next week. It's what happens after that bounce that will determine what we are dealing with here. Summation index to the downside but we will have to see if it sustains that. I think it will. But we'll see. Gold lost $7 today and the XAU fell 2 1/3. ABX and NEM had fractional losses, while GG led the way with a loss of 7/8. Volume was average. Oversold on the gold shares as well but I'd like to wait to get some calls here. I'm looking at the GG calls for October. Might be a tough play though if we really get an overall stock market decline. I'll consider things over the weekend and go from there. Mentally I'm doing OK. I was able to let this week go by and that is a plus. I'll have to check the charts over the weekend and come up with something for next week. Previous declines have been met with sustained buying to new recovery highs for quite some time. We'll have to see if it is different this time. The longer term down trend lines stalled the rally here. Perhaps that is the difference. I think if we get a light volume rally early next week it could be a shorting opportunity. That's why I'm holding off on the gold share calls. We'll have to wait and see how the week unfolds. For now it's a couple of days off to rest and regroup.

Continuing a bit lower today as the Dow lost 41 points. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative and the volume was average. The overall market was weaker than the Dow today and that's a switch from what's been going on. The summation index will now be trending lower. Getting to short term oversold. I'll vote to short the rallies now. The longer term down trend lines look like that they will hold for now. Gold lost $15 today as the dollar showed strength. ABX and NEM had fractional losses, while GG dropped over a buck. Volume was heavy in ABX, average for GG and NEM. I might get some gold share calls next week. Getting oversold on a short term basis. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well or long enough. So is the rally over? I think it is but I haven't been on target with much all year. I'm going to let Friday pass and then get some type of game plan for next week.

A little downside for a change as the Dow lost 81 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. The Fed said nothing new and we rallied but then the bottom fell out as everyone headed for the exits. 80 some points isn't much though when we've come so far already. We are up against those long term down trend lines. We'll see if there is any follow through tomorrow. Gold lost a buck today but sold off in the aftermarket. The XAU dropped 5 1/4. ABX down 1, GG off 1 1/2 and NEM fell 1 1/2 all on average volume. The dollar bounced around today and oil was weaker. I still like the gold shares and will be keeping an eye on them here. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept longer. One day isn't a trend but this could be the beginning of something more sustained to the downside. It is long overdue. But we will have to wait to see what happens. It isn't easy being patient as I've said before. I really think that the best course of action for me here is to wait until next week to attempt to do something. What that something is, remains to be seen. I'll look for downside follow through tomorrow.

It was back to the upside as the Dow gained 51 points today. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive on average volume. A waiting game on the Fed announcement tomorrow. I don't expect any surprises but you never know. Gold had a good day as the dollar lost ground. The precious metal gained $10, while the XAU rose almost 4 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all up around a buck on average volume. All were higher early and pulled back which was the exact opposite action of yesterday. I still like the gold shares but will let this week pass. That is the game plan for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. Not much else to say here. We've had quite a run-up in the stock market and at this point it feels like it will never go down again. But we all know better than that. The summation index is about as high as it gets. It will not continue higher forever. We'll see about the Fed tomorrow.

The Dow lost 41 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. No news to speak of really. Waiting for the Fed announcement on Wednesday. No OEX trades on the horizon for me at the moment. I would expect the market to head lower but I've been expecting that for a while. Gold lost $5 today and the XAU dropped 2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on average volume. They all were off more than a buck early. The dollar gained a bit of ground today. I'd like to get some gold share calls at some point here. Exactly when is the question. A new option cycle has begun so I could just wait it out this week. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It's been a pretty slow Monday. The Internet was down here early but I had no open positions, so it wasn't a factor. There is a G-20 meeting this week but those meetings usually have a lot of talk but no real action. I don't expect any revelations from the Fed announcement in a couple of days either. So I guess it's time to be patient and look for something that presents an opportunity. I think it could be in the gold shares if there's a pullback. Time will tell.

The Dow gained 36 points today on expiration Friday. Volume was average while the advance/declines were positive. How long can the rally last? Summation index heading higher but it's about as high as it gets. Overbought and staying there as well. I certainly don't have the answers at this point. Rolling into the October option cycle. I'm staying on the sidelines for now. Gold lost 3 bucks and the XAU dropped 3 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all off around a buck on average volume. The dollar was a touch higher today. My thinking is that my next trade will be in the gold shares. That's the idea for now. Could change of course. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept better. So I booked another sizable loss this week and am moving on. Or trying to at least. The trading is never easy but that is the nature of the beast. We are just about at some long term down trend lines in the major indices and we moved back up here pretty fast. I cannot believe that we are just going to continue higher here through these trend lines without some type of consolidation or pullback. But I have been wrong on my market prognosis a lot this year. I'll look things over this weekend and take it from there. For now it's time to step back for a couple of days and clear my mind heading into next week. A break and some rest should do the trick.

The Dow took a pause today as it lost 7 points. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was expiration heavy. It has been quite a run and who knows if it is over? However we are approaching some key down trend lines on the major indices and the summation index is about as high as it ever gets. So we'll see what happens. We certainly have gone quite some time without some sustained selling. Gold lost around $6 on the futures. The XAU dropped 3 points. ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM was off over a buck. Volume was pretty good. The dollar lost more ground but not much. I think my next trade will be in the gold shares. It was a valid break out to the upside in my opinion. GE closed lower today on very heavy volume and perhaps it will lead the way lower from here or at least sideways for the stock market. GE has been very strong as of late. Mentally I'm moving on from the latest horrible trade and looking forward to getting it right the next time. You take your shot and move on in the game. It hasn't been a good trading year as I've stated here numerous times. There's still the 4th quarter to go and I'll try my best to get things right. Expiration Friday tomorrow.

The market relentlessly continues higher as the Dow gained 108 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. Very overbought and staying there. Everything that I thought was supposed to happen, didn't. Summation index heading higher but we are getting up to where it should turn around again. But who knows in a market like this? I'm on the sidelines and staying there for now. Gold moved higher, up $13 as the dollar sets new lows for this down leg. The XAU gained 3 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on good volume. I suppose I should have just paid attention to the gold market. I will from here on out. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Is the rally here an expiration related event? We'll find out in time. Often times September starts out one way in the first half and then does just the opposite in the second half. It's half over today so we'll see what happens from here. Not much else to report from here. Losing will do that. It's a confidence game a lot of the time. Right now I have none. I'll have to regroup. When the technical signals don't work, then it's time for me to step aside. We'll see how the week closes out.

Continuing higher as the Dow tacked on another 56 points. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive and volume was average. I could not wait any longer and sold the OEX puts I had for an 85% loss. It was not a good trade to say the least. Even though I expect tomorrow to be a negative day, these puts were so far out of the money by now that it would not have mattered. Unless we get some type of collapse in one day and I doubt that. I almost bought some other OEX puts today but I figure with the loss that I just took, it might be best to lay low for a while. Tomorrow should be a down day and I can't fathom any other scenario. Gold was up $5 and continued higher in the aftermarket as the dollar got even weaker today. The XAU gained 4 points. ABX was up 1/2, while GG and NEM both gained over a buck. GG led the way. Obviously I should have gotten some gold calls on that first 2 day pullback but I was preoccupied with the OEX trade. Mistakes are rampant for me in this trading year so far. GE had another huge up day on heavy volume. Is GE returning to bellwether status? Who knows. Mentally I'm not feeling so hot. Losing trades will do that. But you've got to move on. Today would have been the day to get some OEX puts. I really believe that. That fact that I did not represents yet another thing that needs to be worked on. 3 days left before expiration and I am quite convinced tomorrow will be weak. My work points to it. But after just having booked a loss, I didn't have the guts to try again. The battle is always with oneself. Right now I'm losing that battle.

An interesting expiration Monday as the Dow gapped down at the open only to come all the way back and end the day up 21 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. My OEX puts are almost worthless. I'm still a believer of a decent downside move by Wednesday but it won't be enough to save these puts. It's painful but it's all part of the game. Overbought and staying there as the usual positive expiration week bias takes hold. It's just another mistake of the many for me this year. Gold lost $5 today and the XAU fell 2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on lighter than lately volume. The dollar didn't do much today. I'm laying off gold for now but I still like it longer term. I will note that GE was up pretty good percentage wise today on heavy volume. It's lending support for an already overbought market. Mentally I'm doing OK. Not feeling good about another losing trade though. My prognosis was wrong and there was a chance of that happening as usual. Perhaps I should have waited for a better technical set up. I think what happened was that after a good trade I felt that whatever I did next would work just as well. Obviously that was not a good line of thinking. I'll have to guard against that in the future. In retrospect, I could have just held on to the OEX calls that I bought and made even more of a profit. Hindsight is always correct. On to Tuesday.

A quiet 9/11 as the Dow lost 22 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. I am still holding my OEX puts at a loss. Normally I would have dumped them already but I firmly believe that we will be heading lower at the beginning of next week. Probably not enough to make the puts I have profitable but perhaps I can get a better price to cut the loss. It is going to be expiration week so we'll see what happens. We are still short term overbought. Gold was up $10 and closed above $1000. The dollar hit a fresh new low today. The XAU gained 2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on average volume for lately. The gold shares should have done better today. At least that was my thinking. I still like them longer term and will be looking to buy if we get some weakness. Overbought here though so I'm trying to be patient. Mentally I'm doing OK could have slept more. So we head into expiration week and I'm holding a losing OEX trade. Summation index heading higher and I am bucking that trend. Not a good thing. I'll check things out over the weekend but there is a glaring negative divergence on the RSI for the major averages. I believe we will break down from here and it will be bigger than is expected. It may not happen next week but it should before the month is out. Or things will turn around and we will head to 10000 on the Dow. But I don't think that is the scenario ahead. I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there. For now it's time for a break.

The market remains in rally mode as the Dow gained 80 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. My OEX puts are dead. Summation index heading higher and the market closed on its high. Overbought and staying there. You can't fight that. Another mistake in trading, perhaps because I had just done a decent trade I hurried into the next one. 6 days to go on these options but I'm not optimistic. Gold was flat today but the XAU rose 5 points. The gold shares had dropped 10% in 2 days. Volatility has returned there. ABX, GG and NEM were all up a buck or more. Volume was extremely heavy in ABX but not much for the others. I suppose that I'll go back to thinking about getting long the gold shares. May have to go out a couple of months though. I don't think it would be prudent to try the September cycle at this point. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep enough. So we head to the end of the week and I'm in a losing trade that is running out of time. Not the best of situations. I'll have to see how tomorrow unfolds and go from there.

The rally continues as the Dow gained 50 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. My OEX puts are losing money. I canceled the stop loss order and it would not have been hit today. Perhaps my prognosis was wrong, at least that seems to be what the market it saying here. Today was the day to purchase the puts in my opinion and I almost bought some more. But sanity returned and I'm taking enough risk here as it is. Perhaps I should have payed more attention to the move in GE, which sometimes is a leader. It has gone up big for 2 days on heavy volume. We'll see. Gold was down around $3 on the futures and continued lower in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 4 1/2. ABX announced a restructuring deal which will dilute the share price by issuing more stock. It fell 2 1/2 on extremely heavy volume. GG was off 1 1/2 and NEM fell about 3/4. Volatility has returned with a vengeance to gold. I'd be thinking of getting long GG here if I wasn't involved with the OEX trade. Perhaps. The dollar fell again but gold didn't rise so we're getting some crosscurrents here again. Mentally I'm doing OK. It's looking more and more that this OEX trade was not timed properly and it may be prudent to just get out. We are about short term overbought here though. Timing is always key with the indices and I believe that I was a day early. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow continued to the upside by 56 points on average volume. Advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive. I suppose I should have held those OEX calls for another day. But it doesn't matter now. I bought some OEX puts today. It is a risky trade but they all are. The summation index will move to the upside today but I think that it will be a sideways move before we head lower. I could be wrong. The option premiums on the puts remained higher compared to the calls for the OEX. We'll see what happens. Gold was up a couple bucks but opened much stronger. We were over $1000 but pulled back. The XAU gained 1/4 after being up 7 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses after being much higher. The volume was heavy and it was a one day reversal to the downside. The dollar was weaker but gold could not hold its gains. Oil was higher as well. I don't know what it all means but I will get long the gold shares as we snap back to the breakout point. It won't be easy though. I'll have to go over things later today. Mentally I'm feeling OK, could have slept better. So now it's the OEX puts to keep an eye on. The stop-loss order is already in. This may not have been the best set up technically but I believe it could work until the market proves it otherwise. That could be as soon as tomorrow.

The upside continued today as the Dow gained 96 points. Advance/declines were almost 4 to 1. The volume was light however. It could be holiday related or it could be that this is just a bounce. My thinking is that it's the latter. But who knows? We'll find out going forward. I did sell the OEX calls I bought yesterday for a 60% gain. Finally a trade that I did some things correctly. We could move higher on Tuesday but I'll be focusing on getting short. Gold lost a buck but it has been quite a week. The XAU followed the overall market and was up 2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on lighter volume. If we get some type of pullback, I'll try the gold share calls. The breakout is for real in my opinion. There is also a chance we just go straight up for the September option cycle as well. I really needed to be quicker there and perhaps more focused. The dollar lost some ground today. The employment report showed less job losses than expected which helped the overall market. But I get the feeling a lot of participants were leaving early for the last long holiday weekend of summer. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept better. A decent trade helps things going forward as well. I'm sticking with the prognosis that the decline isn't over and I'll be looking at the OEX puts next week. Plenty of things to look over during the long weekend. For now it's time for a break.

Kind of a bounce today as the Dow gained 64 points today, most of it in the last hour. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive, while the volume was average at best. I expected a rally at the end of the week and hopefully this is the beginning of it. The trend is down though in my opinion. That said, I bought some OEX calls today for the bounce. They are slightly in the black and I will sell them tomorrow or Tuesday depending on the action tomorrow. I don't think that today is the beginning of some kind of sustained rally but I could be wrong. Gold continued higher on the breakout today, up almost another $20 on the futures. The XAU was up 7 1/3. Regardless of what happens tomorrow it has been quite a week for gold. ABX and GG were up 1 1/2, while NEM rose 2. Volume was heavy again. I am leaving in an order for some calls in case we get a pullback. Any weakness in the gold shares can be bought. We are almost at $1000 for the precious metal and that may be a spot to take a rest. But it looks like we are going nowhere but higher at this point. Mentally I'm feeling tired, have not slept well 2 nights in a row. So it's the OEX calls for now as the focus. I really think I'll be dumping them tomorrow because the summation index is still pointing to the downside. But if tomorrow is a huge up day, who knows? I'm hoping that the gold shares will give me a point to get in and make some money. Trying not to lament that miss too much. There's always other trades but that one looks to be the best of the year so far.

The Dow lost 30 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. We traded sideways for most of the day. Summation index still heading lower but I do expect some buying in the next 2 days before the long weekend. If we don't see some rally then things are going to get a lot worse than I think. So we'll see what happens. Gold broke out to the upside today, gaining over $20. The XAU rose 12 1/3 points. What a move! ABX up 3, with GG and NEM better by 3 3/4. It was incredible to say the least. Volume was heavy, that tells me that this is for real. I was trying to buy calls all day and never got filled. I probably should have just gotten in at the market. I'm leaving in an order overnight again. This could be one of those rare times where you just want to jump on board and see how far it goes. The money is flowing here and you can't argue with that. Yesterdays volume in ABX should have been a tip-off. Oh well, there's still going to be some money to be made there. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep enough. So now that we've had the gold breakout, it would be prudent to wait until it takes a rest in order to get long. But it may not and that's what makes it difficult. I'm going to try something though. However, if we get a bit of a rally in the OEX in the next few days, I'll be looking at the puts there. Looks like summer is over and perhaps volatility is returning to the markets. On to tomorrow.

Well the decline has begun as the Dow lost 185 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is pointing down and any rally can be shorted in my opinion. Perhaps that is what I will wait to do. I expect that we will rally later this week and that could be a place to try the OEX puts again. Unfortunately my previous OEX put orders were not filled. But I get the feeling that there will be another chance during the September option cycle. Gold was up $4 today and the XAU fell 2 1/2. Gold rose despite a good day for the dollar. ABX was up 1/3, GG down 1/3 and NEM was flat. Volume increased, which was interesting considering the results were mixed. I'm leaving in the open order for the ABX calls for now. Todays rise in gold could have been the flight to safety play or the beginning of the month money flow. I'm not exactly sure so caution is the word. Mentally I'm feeling OK. My idea for the OEX was solid and I still feel that there's a play there in a few days to the downside again. I am just about as certain that we will rally before the end of the week. Long weekend coming up as well. But it's only Tuesday. We'll have to see how things unfold from here.

We ended the month on a down note as the Dow lost 48 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. We were down about twice as much during the day. The market needed to have some decline here and I would expect some more near term but I also expect us to head back higher towards the end of the week. It's too late for the OEX puts right now but there still may be a time to get them during the September cycle. Who knows, I might try them again. Gold lost $5 today and the XAU dropped 3 1/2. ABX and GG were both off around 3/4, while NEM fell 1 1/4. The dollar didn't do much today but oil dropped around $3. I put in an open order for some ABX September calls. I'm leaving it out there for now. This may not be the greatest trade in the world but I am going to take a shot here. I'll adjust things as the market dictates. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept enough for today. Beginning of the month tomorrow and perhaps this will be a slow week as well. Labor Day is a week from today. There's a chance that we just drift sideways this week. There will also be one less trading day for this option cycle. Things to ponder.

The Dow lost 36 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. The market tried to sell off but came back yet again. I still like the OEX puts for the beginning of next week but did cancel my open order for the weekend. So we'll see. Overbought here even with todays action. Gold was up over $10 today and the XAU rose over 2 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM were all up 3/4 or so on average volume for lately. Gold rose despite the dollar going higher. I do like the gold shares on a pullback still. This may be the play for the September option cycle. I could already be too late. There isn't any reason for gold to be moving higher here unless it is some end of the month situation that I'm not aware of. Anything is possible. Again, I'll have to check things out over the weekend and go from there. Mentally I'm feeling tired. We got through this week but there wasn't any decent set-up to take advantage of. Summer is winding down and next week should be busier. I really would find it hard to believe if we don't have some type of drop early in the week. But this market has proven me wrong time and again this year. Employment data on Friday. I'll get busy over the weekend and go from there.

Once again the market tried to sell off and it came back again. The Dow gained 37 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. I'm leaving in the open order for OEX puts but the market seems like it wants to go higher. So why leave in the order? There is a sell signal being generated by the RSI. We have higher prices and a lower McClellan oscillator. When the technicals give a signal, I'm going to take a chance. I also don't believe the summation index can go much higher. We'll see. Gold was up a few bucks today and the XAU gained 2 3/4. ABX up 1/3, GG up 7/8 and NEM up 3/4. Volume was light. The dollar was weaker today. It is hard to make much of what is going on here because the volume is so light. If we do get the expected pullback in the market, I will be getting long the gold shares. If all goes according to plan that will happen at the beginning of next week. But the best laid plans rarely come through. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. So if we get some rally tomorrow perhaps the open OEX put order will get filled and the trade will be on it's way. If we drop tomorrow, then I'll wait for Monday and look to get long the gold shares. That's the game plan as of today.

Hanging around here as the Dow gained 4 points. Volume was light and the advance/declines were negative. I get the feeling we are preparing for one more thrust to the upside. After that, who knows? I'm leaving in my order for the OEX puts. I think we'll see some downside on Friday or Monday. However after that, if it occurs, I'm going to get long the gold shares. That's the scenario for now. It has been a pretty slow week here so far. Gold was little changed today and the XAU fell almost 2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses again on light volume. The dollar was higher today but I really think these are thin markets this week. I'll try and be patient. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. So we are here moving sideways on light volume and waiting to see where the next catalyst comes from. Again, I think the upside is limited here with one more pop perhaps. But I could be wrong. However, I am willing to try the OEX puts here and we'll see what transpires from here.

Overbought and staying there again as the Dow gained 30 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. Once again we were higher early and then came back. It's possible that we'll get one more up thrust and then head down from there. Or we could just head lower from here. But I'm pretty sure that the upside will be limited from here near term. The negative divergence on the RSI for the OEX is taking shape. My open order for the OEX puts wasn't filled and I'll probably be leaving another one for tomorrow. Gold gained a couple bucks and the XAU was up 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional gains on light volume. The dollar didn't do much but oil was noticeably weaker. The scenario here remains the same, I'll get long the gold shares on weakness. That should occur if the market takes a rest here soon. We'll see what happens. Mentally I'm tired. Got up early today for jury duty and it was a tortuous day to say the least. But it's over now and the markets won't wait and don't care. The OEX puts look to be my next trade. The timing is everything. It is almost at the point where patience isn't going to help. But not yet. We'll see how tomorrow unfolds.

The Dow managed a 3 point gain today but we were much higher earlier. Advance/declines were about even and the volume looks pretty good for a summer Monday. We are now getting the negative RSI divergence that I've been looking for. That doesn't mean that we can't go higher but I am looking for a decline. Might have to wait until the end of the week but that's fine. I have an open order in for some OEX puts. The summation index is about as high as it goes in my opinion. I could be wrong. We'll see what happens. Gold took a hit today, down $11. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses. NEM led the way down. Volume was light. I'm still inclined to get long the gold shares when the proper signal hits. It's a matter of when. If the market drops a bit here as I suspect, it might be a buy for the gold shares. The shares today held up much better than the metal itself and that is a positive. But anything can happen. I'm keeping an eye on it. Mentally I feel fine, slept OK. At this point the scenario is that if we trade higher until the end of the week I'll be looking to get the OEX puts. If we trade lower all week I'll be looking to get long the gold shares. A sideways continuation will have me still considering the OEX puts. It has been a busy summer for the markets and no summer doldrums this year. Hard to say what that means going forward. More volatility perhaps. On to Tuesday.

The Bollinger bands did converge and we got a dramatic move. I thought it would be to the downside but higher we go. The Dow gained 156 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index should move back to the upside with todays action. Another up day and we will be short term overbought. I don't think the summation index is about to take off to the upside here and there will be some negative divergences after today. I'm going to think long and hard about getting some OEX puts at the beginning of next week. We'll see. Gold had a good day as well, up $13. The XAU only rose 3 points though. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains to the upside again on light volume. The dollar was weaker today. I canceled my open order for the ABX September calls. I'll have to give gold some thought over the weekend as well. It looks like it is poised to go higher but if we get a drop in the markets, the gold shares will follow. However, it is possible that we will just continue higher and the gold shares along with it too. I don't think that is the scenario that will unfold here but it could. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well or long enough. Last week of August coming up. Just how high will we go here? There's a lot to look at over the weekend. You can't argue with price though. I think that I'll be putting on a trade next week. Right now though I'm going to take a break and relax. Summer is almost coming to a close.

Settling out on the Dow as it looks to be a gain of around 70 points on average volume. Advance/declines are over 2 to 1 positive. We've had a positive expiration week bias after Mondays drop. There was no follow through to the downside even when the overseas markets faltered. I'm still favoring the OEX puts when we get overbought, which could happen next week. We'll get through Friday and take it from there. Gold lost $3 but the XAU rose 1 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains again on light volume. The gold shares are following the overall market at the moment. I still have an order in for the ABX September calls but may cancel it before the weekend. If the market does drop the gold shares will go with it. However, nothing is set in stone when it comes to the markets. There's a daily uptrend line in the gold shares that has held for now. We'll see what happens. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. It's getting near the end of August and things could slow down next week. But that's a guess. The new option cycle will begin and things will be pricey on the premiums. I'll keep an eye on things and we'll go from there.

Another day to the upside as the Dow gained 61 points. Advance/declines were positive. Volume was light and a re-check of yesterdays volume shows that it was light as well. I never really trust light volume rallies. That could be a problem here. Perhaps we will get a higher high with a lower RSI after all. No OEX trades for now but I will be looking to the September puts at this point. Gold gained $5 today and the XAU rose 1 2/3. ABX, GG and NEM again had fractional gains on light volume. Hard to say where gold is headed from here. We are oversold but working it off slowly. If the overall market does drop, the gold shares will probably go with it. That said, I am leaving in an open order to purchase some ABX September calls. Oil was strong again today with the dollar weaker and gold didn't do as much. Perhaps I'll wait for the gold/XAU signal. We'll have to see how things play out. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. I have noticed that the Bollinger bands are converging on the OEX. This usually portends a dramatic move one way or the other. My thinking is that it will be to the downside but it's anybodies guess. 2 days left this week and no August option cycle trades. Patience cannot be underrated.

Support has held for now as the Dow gained 82 points on light volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. We were up from the start and then remained higher, moving sideways for the rest of the day. 3 days left in the August option cycle and I don't think I'll be making a trade. Summation index now pointing down, which does imply lower prices. But you never know. Looking more oversold here than I thought, so I don't expect a break of the 980 level on the S&P 500 this week. I could be wrong. Gold was up around $3 today and the XAU gained 2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. I would still like to get long the gold shares as we are oversold. I'll be looking at the ABX September and October calls. That's the plan for now. Dollar a bit weaker today. Oil had a good day and gold did not really follow. I'm going to try and remain patient here. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. I'm going to try my best not to do anything stupid for the rest of the week. It could be that we get a slowdown in the markets here as it is the end of the summer. That hasn't been the case as of yet this year. But there is that possibility. On to tomorrow.

A downer Monday as the Dow followed the global markets lower and lost 186 points. Volume was average and the advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. The summation index has rolled over and the path of least resistance is downward. We are right at support on the S&P 500 at the 980 level. The next level would be in the 950 area if we don't hold up here. My guess is that we will get to 950 sooner or later. I think that it's too late for the August OEX puts. Gold took a hit as well, off $12. The XAU fell 6 3/4. ABX and GG were both off around a buck, while NEM fell over 1 1/2. Volume was light. We are oversold here. I'm thinking of trying the ABX or GG calls for a bounce here this week. It's risky with only 4 days to go but it could be worth the effort. I'll look at things tonight and then decide. The dollar gained ground today as well. So we'll see. I don't have the Gold/XAU signal yet but it may not be far off. When that occurs it will be time to get some longer term gold share calls. I'm keeping an eye on it. Mentally I'm doing OK. Did not feel well last night but all is better today. Once again decisions have to be made and I've got to be up for the challenge. It is expiration week, so anything can happen. Of course staying on the sidelines is always an option. I'll run through things tonight and go from there.

The market never waits as we were down 76 points today. A late comeback cut the loss in half. Volume was light and the advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. I may still get the OEX puts next week but it's a tough call now that we've dropped. There's also the possibility that we get an option expiration week run up in the averages. Todays action implies higher prices near term. I'll ponder things over the weekend. Gold was down $7 and the XAU lost 3 points. ABX lost 1/3, while GG and NEM were off over 3/4. Volume was light. Gold has been moving sideways and has held up rather good so far here. But we haven't had a real market decline either. The dollar was a bit higher today. I'd like to get long some ABX calls at some point. The question is when? The chart looks promising on a weekly basis for a breakout. And if and when it starts to move, I think it will be substantial. It's a waiting game for now. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. One week left on the August option cycle. It's risky for me here. The short term trades with not much time left usually burn me. However there will be opportunity. It's a matter of if I'm up to the challenge. More to think about over the weekend. For now it's Friday afternoon in the summer and time for a break.

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 36 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. I'm still looking at the OEX puts for the beginning of next week. If the market moves in the scenario that I expect, I'll give it a shot. Tomorrow should be an up day if all goes well. We then may get a divergence on the RSI. That's the idea at the moment. Gold was up 4 bucks and the gold shares followed with the XAU gaining 4 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM were all up by 2/3 on light volume. At one point I placed an order for some ABX calls but canceled it later. The technical indicators for the gold shares have started to move higher. It is a trade that could perhaps work. However my thinking is that with 6 days left and my scenario for a falling market coming up, this may not be the best trade at the moment. The dollar was weaker today however and the gold shares did outperform gold itself. I didn't want to take the risk here, I'll wait for the OEX. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough for a change. So we'll see what the inflation data does to the markets and go from there. It could be that I sit out the August option cycle as well.

Back to the upside as the Dow gained 120 points on Fed day. Volume was average, while the advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. We were up even higher but sold off at the end. The Fed offered no surprises and now that is out of the way. More data to come including inflation numbers on Friday. I still feel the upside is limited here and sideways could be the rule until September. I will purchase some OEX puts if we make a higher high with a lower RSI. Possibly in the beginning of next week but we will have to see what the market does from here. Gold was up $5 on the futures and sold off a touch after the Fed. The XAU was up a point. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves on light volume. There is no interest in the gold shares at the moment. My feeling is that could be the case for the rest of the month. I could be wrong. We are getting oversold on the gold shares so I'll keep an eye on them. Mentally I'm doing OK. A bit tired as I did not sleep well. I'm trying to be patient here. If we get a set up for the OEX puts, I'll give it a try. Otherwise it may be prudent to just step aside and let the August option cycle play itself out. Time will tell.

The Dow continued lower today, down 96 points on average volume. Advance/declines were more than 2 to 1 negative. This action should start to turn the summation index lower. It doesn't mean we'll get a full scale decline just yet but I think it does mean that the upside is limited from here at this time. If we get a rally from here, I'll try the OEX puts before expiration. All eyes and ears are on the Fed tomorrow. Gold was little changed today while the XAU lost 2 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM were all down on light volume today, with GG leading the way. We are oversold here on the gold shares and I might buy some calls tomorrow before the Fed announcement. It would have to be a short term trade because if the market falls as I expect, the gold shares will probably fall with it. Mentally I'm doing OK. I have to cut things short today due to an appointment. We'll see what happens tomorrow. I'll check the charts tonight and determine if a play is warranted.

The Dow lost 32 points on this summer Monday. Advance/declines were average and the so was the volume. We were lower but came back some in the last hour. Basically waiting on the Fed announcement on Wednesday. Summation index still moving higher. I'm thinking of getting some OEX puts this week. I don't believe the summation index can get much higher here but I could be wrong and often am. If we make a higher high on the OEX and the RSI doesn't confirm it, I'll try the puts. So we'll see. Gold had a bad day for the bullish side and was down $12. The XAU lost 3 points. ABX down 1/2, GG lost a buck and NEM fell 3/4. Volume was light. The dollar was up again today and it looks like we could have a legitimate short term bottom in the dollar. Time will tell. If that's the case there is no reason to rush into the gold shares here. However when we get oversold for ABX, I'm going to try the calls. There is an uptrend line about 2 points away from where we are now. If the indicators are oversold and we reach that uptrend line, then the trade will be to purchase the September calls. That's the idea at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. 9 days left before the August expiration. The market still feels as if it wants to go higher. Sell offs do not have any legs of late. Why even try the OEX puts then? Good question. Perhaps it's just another in the many bad ideas I've had so far this year. We'll see.

Back in rally mode for Friday as the Dow gained 113 points on good volume. Advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The employment report wasn't as bad as expected. We were even higher than that earlier in the day. Summation index continues higher but it is about as high as it can go in my opinion. The market will go where it wants. The next event is the Fed announcement on Wednesday. So we'll see. I'm thinking about some OEX puts next week. Gold lost another $3 on the futures and the XAU fell 3 3/4. Considering the strong move in the dollar, gold held up pretty well. ABX, GG and NEM were all off around a buck on light volume. I suppose I'll have to wait for a signal there. I need to check the charts over the weekend. Perhaps the September option cycle will work there for the calls but that's a guess. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept good enough. So here we are in the beginning of August with an incredible up move for the stock market still going strong. Will there be no summer doldrums? Apparently not. 2 weeks left on this option cycle. I'll ponder things over the weekend and go from there. Perhaps sitting out the August cycle will be the correct path. We'll see. A summer weekend is here. Time to relax.

A slight drop today as the Dow lost 25 points. We were lower than that on the day after opening on a positive note. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was pretty good again. That makes 2 days of good volume on the decline. Interesting. The summation index continues higher but as I said yesterday, it's about as high as it goes. The employment report will key tomorrows action and next week we have the Fed. No OEX trades for me at the moment. Gold didn't do much today, down a bit. The XAU was off a touch. ABX, GG and NEM again had fractional moves one way or the other. Volume was light. The dollar gained ground today and the gold shares held up pretty good. That could be bullish. It all depends on how gold reacts to tomorrows developments. I might be convinced to get long the gold shares before the August expiration. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'd really like to put on some type of trade here but I'm not really seeing any decent set-ups. It's a tough game. It's hard to stay out sometimes but it has to be done. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

A slight pullback as the Dow dropped 39 points. Advance/declines were negative. Volume looks like it picked up. All eyes waiting for Fridays employment report. The summation index is at its highest point that I can remember. It is due to start to drop. I do not expect a ton of upside from here. Considering how overbought we are and how long that condition has lasted, I have to be careful here about the bullish cause. We may just move sideways and not have a decent drop. We'll see but caution for the upside is my mantra here. It may keep me from playing the gold shares right now. Gold lost $3 today and the XAU dropped 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. The gold shares sold off early but came all the way back. The dollar continues weaker. It's possible that the dollar could take a hit after the employment report. That's a guess. I'm on the sidelines here for now. Could change tomorrow for all I know but probably not. Mentally I'm OK. Looking for a trade here but don't want to do anything stupid. I'll check things again tonight and go from there. So we'll see.

Continuing higher, it's like a broken record. The Dow gained 33 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. Tried to sell off but the market only knows one way at the moment and it's up. Oversold, staying there and you start to get the feeling that the market will never go down again. But we know better than that. Can't fight the tape here but the summation index is getting far too extended. So we'll see what happens. Gold continues higher, up another $10 today. The XAU was flat though. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves either side of unchanged. Volume was light. The dollar stabilized today. I still might try the gold shares if we get some pullback. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. How much longer can the summer rally go on? That is the question. There doesn't seem to be anything to stop it at the moment. Perhaps the employment report on Friday but who knows? I'll continue to keep an eye on how things develop.

Beginning of the month money flows helped the Dow to a gain of 115 points. Volume was average and the advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. Summation index continues higher but we are getting to levels that would suggest at least a sideways movement in the summation index. That doesn't mean the market will drop, it could continue higher with a sideways summation index. Employment report on Friday. No OEX trades for now. Gold was up $3 but the XAU gained almost 5. ABX up over a buck, while GG gained 3/4 and NEM rose 1/2. The dollar got clobbered again today but gold itself didn't rise proportionately. I still like the gold shares and am thinking of getting the August calls even though we've moved off the recent lows. I did place an overnight order that wasn't filled. The weekly dollar chart looks like it is in the final wave down of a 5 wave move. There is probably some more room to go on the downside for the dollar here. August is also historically in the past 30 years one of the better months for gold. The weekly stochastic has moved back to the upside for the gold shares as well. So we'll see. Perhaps I'll go out to September. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. The market continues in rally mode, with only the slightest of pullbacks. Hard to fight that. It hasn't been a slow summer as I had anticipated. I'll be looking to put on some type of trade this week as things stand right now. So we'll see. I'll check the charts again tonight.

We closed out the month on a positive note as the Dow gained 17 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. We should trend higher here. Summation index still to the upside. Plenty of time in the August option cycle but no trades for now. Gold had a good day as the dollar got clobbered. The precious metal gained $18 and the XAU rose 5 1/2. ABX was up a buck or so while GG and NEM gained 1 1/2. Volume was better than it has been. Will I get long the gold shares then? Perhaps. I'll have to look at things over the weekend. There's something about the volume that is lacking though. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. However my focus seems to be lacking. Whether it's the fact that we are in the middle of summer or that my trading thus far this year has sucked, I don't know. The game isn't easy. I'm doing the work as usual but my conviction on trades isn't there at the moment. I'll need to get it together before I attempt the next trade. But for now it's a summer weekend and time for a break.

The rally lives on as the Dow gained 83 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The market could not sell off the previous 2 sessions and higher prices were in order. We cut todays gain in half but it was still pretty good. GDP numbers tomorrow and the end of the month. Prices should be supported by money flows going into the middle of next week. You can't fight it. Gold was up $7 and the XAU gained 4. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher, with ABX leading the way up a buck. The earnings didn't mean much really as the gold shares followed the overall market and the weakness in the dollar. Oil rallied as well. I'm going to wait on the gold shares though, until we are oversold. Not there yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well. No clear signal for the OEX here but most technicals are overbought and have been for a while now. Summation index still moving to the upside. I'm on the sidelines for the near future. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Again, the market just refuses to sell off here. The Dow lost 26 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were off about 90 at one point. Buyers continue to surface. Summation index still heading higher. End of the month on Friday. I would expect us to move higher now in the near term. Gold lost around another $10 today as the dollar gained strength. The XAU fell 4 points. ABX and GG were both off more than 1/2, while NEM dropped a buck. Volume was nothing special. Earnings tomorrow and I thought about trading some ABX calls but didn't. The technicals have turned bearish for now on the gold shares. I'll be looking at them again when they are oversold. It's tempting to try and play the earnings for ABX and GG but it isn't really the prudent thing to do. It is much more likely to be successful by waiting for the proper technical set up. Oil got hit hard today as well and it looks like the commodity trade is done for now. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. So it looks like we have a stock market that is working off its overbought position on its way to heading higher. That's my guess at the moment.

Tried to sell off today but the market is resilient. The Dow lost 11 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were off 100 at one point. The trend remains to the upside for now. Approaching the end of the month. No trades in the OEX for now. Gold took a hit today, off $15. The XAU dropped 6 points. ABX down 1 1/2, GG lost 2 1/4 and NEM fell 1 1/4. Volume picked up a bit to the downside. Not sure what to make of it but the dollar had a reversal to the upside. Oil was weaker as well. Still have the earnings to contend with for ABX and GG on Thursday. I'm on the sidelines. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. Still a bit gun shy here with all the bad trades of the year still simmering in my mind. The mental game is always tough. Somehow have to move on and keep going. I'm trying my best. Confidence is a key as I've said before. So we'll see what happens.

Not much happening today as the Dow gained 15 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. Today was classic summertime lack of activity. We're overbought, staying there and are really due for some type of pullback. I'd like to make a trade but don't see anything worth doing at the moment. Gold was pretty much flat and the XAU lost 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional losses on light volume. Earnings out on Thursday. I could try a play before then but I'm not sure. The dollar lost some ground today but it didn't do anything for gold. No gold trades for now but that could change. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. So here we are at the end of July following a huge rally. Where do we go from here? Summation index still heading higher. The trend is up. As overbought as I can remember. I'm on the sidelines until further notice.

Can nothing stop this market? The Dow picked up another 24 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. The Dow has been up 9 of the last 10 days. You can't fight that. Summation index heading up. Very overbought and staying there. There are still 4 weeks to go on the August options. I gave the puts a try and failed. I suppose it's the sidelines for a while now. But we'll see. Gold lost a couple bucks and the XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. I haven't liked the volume all the way up on this rise for the gold shares. Earnings next week for ABX and GG. I may try the puts after the earnings announcement. After earnings, what is left to move these stocks higher? I'll think about it over the weekend. The dollar was lower today but it didn't do much for gold. Mentally I'm a bit tired, have not been sleeping well lately. There haven't been any summer doldrums this year so far. I was wrong on that call. It looks like that we have broken through resistance with volume this week. That fact cannot be ignored. The market will be looking to go higher. I'm going to have to look things over this weekend and go from there. I have been in quite a slump though. Perhaps I'll have to take the rest of the summer off. Probably not though. It's a summertime weekend and time for a rest.

We broke out to the upside today as the Dow gained 188 points on heavier volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. It's hard for me to believe how overbought we are. And staying there. It's the exact opposite of when we tanked last year by staying oversold beyond comprehension. So it goes. I dumped the OEX puts for a 50% loss. Now tomorrow we will probably get the down move I have been waiting for. MSFT just missed on its earnings and could set the tone for tomorrow. Gold was up a buck and the XAU gained about a buck. ABX and GG had fractional gains on good volume for lately. NEM lost 1/4 on bad earnings. Volume was nothing special. The dollar was flat today. Overbought on the gold shares and I'm on the sidelines. Mentally I'm doing OK. The OEX trade I just did was really stupid. My trading thus far this year is ridiculous. I've got to somehow right the ship, turn things around and get my act together. When I didn't take the buy signal last week, we soared. When I took the sell signal this week, we just continued higher. It's the toughest game in the world sometimes. I'm going to have to work harder and keep at it though.

A slight breather today as the Dow lost 34 points on what passes for average volume these days. Advance/declines were positive. It was a mixed market for sure. My OEX puts are still losers and I am looking to dump them before the end of the week. Still overbought here. Gold was up $6 and the XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses. Earnings are out next week. Perhaps I'll get some calls before then. It's been a light volume rally in the gold shares and I don't really trust it. But we'll see what happens. Mentally I had to leave halfway through todays session which doesn't usually happen. This was another day off that I took, a partial day. But the market doesn't care. I still believe that we are up against resistance and that there has to be a decent down day now. We'll see.

The rally will never end at this rate as the Dow gained another 68 points today. Volume was average and the advance/declines were positive. We sold off during the day and came all the back and then some. The OEX puts I bought yesterday are in the red. We are so overbought now that I can't imagine going that much higher here without some type of pullback but the market will do whatever it takes to make the majority wrong. Am I in the majority? Maybe. Gold was off a touch and the XAU fell about a point. ABX, GG and NEM were little changed on average volume. I guess I'll call it average for now because it has been light all the way on this up move and that could be the new average. I don't know. The gold shares tried to sell off today as well and came back too. Mentally I'm doing OK, finally got a good nights sleep. It looks like I'm in another losing trade here. Now really, what was I thinking? An extra week in the August option cycle and I'm buying them right in the beginning. The signal was there and it isn't working yet. We are way overbought and at long term resistance. I cannot believe that we are not about to get some type of drop here. So we'll see what happens.

The rally continues as the Dow gained 104 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. We are short term overbought and will be medium term also after tomorrow. I bought some OEX puts near the close today. I'm expecting a pull back here and it could be pretty good but it's a one to two day trade with potential of 20% to 30%. When I got a signal last week on the upside I didn't do anything. Now there is an opposite signal and I'm going for it. I hopefully have the discipline to get out. We'll see. Gold had another good day as the dollar weakened and was up $11. ABX, GG and NEM were all a buck higher on light volume. The gold shares are looking good, no doubt about that. The only fly in the ointment has been the volume but it is summer. You cannot deny the price action though and it has been substantial. I still regret missing the move but if we get a pullback, who knows? Mentally I am extremely tired, have not been sleeping well and very busy outside of the markets. It is summer and I really need to get back into the swing of things. The doldrums I had been anticipating are not happening. I hope todays trade wasn't some kind of dumb idea just because I've been hanging around with a hedge fund manager all weekend. Not to mention I'm overly tired. So we'll see what happens.

A relatively quiet expiration as the Dow gained 31 points. Volume was average for lately and the advance/declines were negative. It was a very good week but we are now overbought and I would expect weakness at the beginning of next week. We'll have to see what happens after that. Longer term resistance is approaching. Gold was up a couple bucks and the XAU gained 2. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher by 1/4-3/4. The volume was very light though. I expect we'll pull back here as well next week. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. Short post today as I have appointments this afternoon. Summertime. I would like to add that the action next week will tell if this was just an expiration week wonder or something more significant. Stay tuned.

The rally continues as the Dow gained 95 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. Summation index heading higher. It really has been an incredible move to the upside this week. The reported earnings are better than expected, which happens when the expectations are low. We are overbought here so I would expect some type of pullback soon. Where we go after that is anybodies guess. We are at 440 on the OEX and resistance is at 450. So we'll see. Gold was down $4 but the XAU followed the overall market higher, up over a buck. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. The gold shares have moved back to outperforming the metal itself and that's usually bullish. The dollar was weaker today. Perhaps I'll look at the gold share calls again on any weakness. However there is an extra week in the August option cycle which will keep the premiums high. Mentally I'm tired and I did sleep pretty good. I'm not in a good spot mentally really. No confidence and just missed an excellent opportunity this past week. I can't dwell on it and I'll try not to but it's tough. You've just gotta keep moving along in the game. That's what makes it tough but as usual the battle is always with oneself. On to expiration Friday.

The rally continues and it appears to be for real as the Dow gained 256 points. Advance/declines look to be about 8 to 1 and the volume was better than it has been. No sellers, only buyers. The summation index is back to the upside. Quite an expiration week so far. We closed near the highs again. Now this is a summer rally but we've come pretty far, pretty fast. Overbought on the short term now but it may not mean anything. We'll see. Gold had a real good day as well, up $16 as the dollar got weaker. The XAU rose 6 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM were all up over a buck with GG leading the way. Volume picked up a bit from lately as well. The weekly USD chart could be beginning the final leg down of a five wave pattern. If so, gold should have a decent multi-week rally here. So the gold shares could be a buy for me on weakness. Or it might be too late. Time will tell. Mentally I'm feeling OK considering I've missed this move. Slept pretty good. You've always got to keep moving along in the game. Frustration is part of it and like I said yesterday confidence is very important. Being able to take advantage of opportunities is key. I haven't been able to do that thus far this year. I'll need to work harder and pay better attention. Getting some confidence back wouldn't hurt either.

We started out a bit lower and closed higher again. The Dow was up 27 points on light volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. We also closed at the high of the day. Todays action should turn the summation index back to the upside. Perhaps the worst is over in the stock market for now. We'll see. Obviously buying calls on Monday continues to look good. Gold was little changed on the day but the XAU rose 2 1/2. ABX was up 7/8, GG and NEM gained 2/3. Volume was light. The dollar didn't do much today. I'll be getting long the gold shares eventually. Mentally I'm doing OK, a bit tired. Tomorrow looks like it could open higher since INTC just reported better than expected earnings. But that remains to be seen. Expiration week as well and so far there has been a positive bias. Not much else to say here, it's just a summer Tuesday.

It was a good day for the market as the Dow gained 185 points on light volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. It was a one day reversal to the upside as we opened lower and closed higher. It looks as though the 880 level on the S&P 500 will hold for now. We broke through and did not collapse. Now we are comfortably back above that level. This morning would have been a good time to purchase some OEX calls. But my mind was in summer mode. Another opportunity missed. Gold was up $10 on the futures. The XAU was higher by 2 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains to the upside and closed near their highs. Volume was average for lately. On day reversals here as well as the gold shares were much lower early and came all the way back. Probably would have been a good day to get some calls here too. But who knows? The gold shares could have done better with a $10 move in gold. I'm going to wait for the September calls to come out. Mentally I'm a bit tired as I did not sleep well. So we had a good day to the upside today and there are plenty of earnings to contend with this week. I wasn't properly prepared for todays action and I think it was a result of having such a bad first half of the year. Confidence is everything. Mine is lacking at the moment. We'll have to see where we go into the expiration. I don't think this is the beginning of another long term rally but I could be wrong and often am.

Kind of a lackluster day as the Dow lost 36 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. A summer Friday. The NASDAQ was in positive territory and we are very oversold both short and medium term. I would be surprised if Monday was not an upside day. But the market will go where it wants and I've been pretty wrong about things for half the year. Gold lost $3 and the XAU was off 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional moves on light volume. The dollar was a bit stronger. We are oversold on the gold shares but I'm still in a waiting mode for a position there. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. So it's the weekend and time to catch up on the charts. Option expiration is next week and I have no plans for a trade at the moment. Summation index still pointing down. My scenario would be for higher prices early in the week and then selling off from there. But that's a guess. So we'll see what happens. Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Up and down today as the market tries to make up its mind what to do. We ended with a gain of 4 points on the Dow. Advance/declines were positive and the volume went back to being light. I get the feeling that the market is doing what it can to just hold on here. We are oversold though. However the summation index continues to the downside. I guess I'm trying to make up my mind as well. No OEX trades for now. Option expiration is next week. Gold bounced back $7 today and the XAU rose a point. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. Oversold here as well but I'm in no hurry to get long after yesterdays action. The dollar got pounded today as well and gold didn't move that much. It isn't a bullish sign. I'm going to have to be patient here and as I've said before that isn't the easiest thing to do. Mentally I'm feeling tired after yesterdays mini vacation. It is summer and things tend to be slow down. So it's sit and wait for now.

Well we managed a gain of 14 points today on the Dow. Volume picked up. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. We were lower for most of the day and made a last hour comeback. The market is oversold here and due for some upside but I don't think it will be much. But I could be wrong. We did breach the 880 level on the S&P 500 but have already snapped all the way back. No OEX trades for now but I'd be cautious one way or the other. Gold got rocked today, down $20. The XAU lost 4 1/4. ABX lost 1 1/4, GG a buck and NEM almost 1 1/2. Volume picked up a bit to the downside. That's not a good sign for the bullish case. The $920 support level for gold broke down. We are getting oversold on the gold shares though and I would like to own some calls at some point. But I think I'll wait for now. Mentally I'm feeling pretty good. I actually took a day off today and got out of town. It was a nice break in the action. It is summertime. I'll have another day off in 2 weeks. Looking at todays action the market had every reason to head lower and it didn't. Perhaps because of the oversold condition but in the past if we were really going to head lower it wouldn't matter. So perhaps a near term rally is in the offing. As I said earlier though, I can't see it going very far. But it's all a guess. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

No summer doldrums today as the Dow lost 161 points on average volume. Advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. We are at the moment of truth here with the S&P 500 trying to hold what I consider key support at 880. The summation index is pointing down. Tomorrow could be interesting. I don't think that I'll be putting on any OEX trades but who knows? Gold was up $4 but sold off a bit in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 3/4, which wasn't too bad considering the negative day in equities. ABX was off 1/3, while GG and NEM were little changed. Volume was light. I would like to wait for the September options to come on board but that is a week and a half away. Just about oversold in the gold shares though. Sometimes patience is the hardest thing to do. Mentally I'm feeling alright, could have slept more. I'm going to try and not do anything stupid here but you never know. If we don't hold up here at 880 on the S&P, we will be going much lower in my opinion. But it hasn't broken down yet. So I'll watch and wait.

The Dow gained 44 points on this summer Monday. Volume was light and the advance/declines were negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. It was a positive one day reversal as we opened lower and closed higher. Not a lot of data out this week so it should be pretty slow. But you never know when it comes to the market. No OEX trades for now. Gold lost $8 and the XAU dropped 5 3/4. The gold shares continue to under perform the price of gold. ABX off a buck, GG down 1 3/4 and NEM dipped 3/4. Volume summer light as has been the case. Gold was down and the dollar didn't really do much. However oil was weaker and that could be the root of the cause. Commodities in general are being sold at the moment. So I'm going to try and be patient with the gold shares here. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. And so it goes. The long weekend is over and we are in summer doldrums mode. Not the best of trading environments. If and when there is a decent signal, I'll try and act on it. Until then it's a game of watching and waiting.

We ended the short week on a down note as the Dow lost 223 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 4 to 1 negative. The employment report came in worse than expected. We are getting to short term oversold. However the volume lately has been non existent. There are no buyers. I can't see anything changing that over the summer unless earnings are much better than expected. But it is the market and anything can happen. Summation index with no clear direction at the moment. Gold lost $10 and the XAU shed 4 1/2. ABX and GG lost around 3/4, while NEM dropped 2. Volume light here as well. The dollar was higher even though the jobs situation got worse. More of a flight to safety for the dollar with todays market drop. What it all means for gold going forward is anybodies guess. I still like the gold shares going out to August or September. The next buy signal I see there I will try and take advantage of. The indicators are not oversold as of yet. So it's a waiting game. Mentally I'm a bit tired did not sleep as much. The holiday weekend has arrived and it's time to take it easy for a while. We need to hold at around 880 on the S&P 500 or I fear that the decline will be more than what we've seen so far. Not sure if we will hold up or not. Doesn't feel like it after a day like today. The lack of volume doesn't help things for the bullish cause either. But for now it's time to relax and take a break.

The Dow gained 57 points today on the cusp of the employment report. Volume was light and the advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. We were up over 100 at one point. The breadth here is encouraging but the volume isn't. It is summer though. The summation index is starting to move sideways here as well as the market. So we'll see what happens tomorrow. I really don't know what to expect. Gold had a good day, up the $13 we lost yesterday. The XAU gained over 5 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all back up around 1 1/2. Volume was light though. The dollar did lose some ground. One of my thoughts is that the employment report comes out weaker than expected and the dollar gets hit thus supporting gold. Then the dollar gets sold off even more with the holiday here in the US on Friday. That's all just a guess. I also thought that yesterdays sell-off in the gold shares was just end of the month activity and that may prove to be correct. But I didn't act on it. It's tough for me to take a stand here with the volume so anemic. So there's no rush to do anything at the moment but that could be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. We'll wrap up the week tomorrow and then take a long weekend. It seems as though the market has really slowed down here and that is expected for the summer. But summer has just begun and at this rate it could be a long one.