Monday, October 05, 2009
We got the expected bounce today as the Dow rose 112 points. Advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive and the volume was average. It's now when things get interesting. Is this just a bounce in a decline or the start of another leg up? Answer that correctly and you' ll make some money in the next 2 weeks. I'm inclined to think that it's the former and I'll be looking to get some OEX puts this week. But that's not etched in stone. Gold had a good day on the US dollars decline. The precious metal gained $13 and the XAU rose 5 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all up around a buck with GG leading the way. Volume wasn't impressive though. If my overall market weakness scenario is correct, then the gold shares will be dropping back once again. I like the gold shares still though but the weekly charts look bearish. So I'm on the sidelines there even though I put in an overnight order for some GG calls last night. Obviously it wasn't filled as the gold shares rose from the start of trading today. Mentally I'm doing OK. Slept well enough. As I looked things over this weekend it appeared that gold could be in for another short term rise here. However it looks like gold is leading the gold shares and that is never a sign of a longer term move. At least not in my experience. We'll see what happens there. I'm going to be looking at getting some OEX puts on Wednesday. That is the game plan at this point. Market action will dictate whether that trade is worth doing when the time comes.
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