Monday, August 10, 2009
The Dow lost 32 points on this summer Monday. Advance/declines were average and the so was the volume. We were lower but came back some in the last hour. Basically waiting on the Fed announcement on Wednesday. Summation index still moving higher. I'm thinking of getting some OEX puts this week. I don't believe the summation index can get much higher here but I could be wrong and often am. If we make a higher high on the OEX and the RSI doesn't confirm it, I'll try the puts. So we'll see. Gold had a bad day for the bullish side and was down $12. The XAU lost 3 points. ABX down 1/2, GG lost a buck and NEM fell 3/4. Volume was light. The dollar was up again today and it looks like we could have a legitimate short term bottom in the dollar. Time will tell. If that's the case there is no reason to rush into the gold shares here. However when we get oversold for ABX, I'm going to try the calls. There is an uptrend line about 2 points away from where we are now. If the indicators are oversold and we reach that uptrend line, then the trade will be to purchase the September calls. That's the idea at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. 9 days left before the August expiration. The market still feels as if it wants to go higher. Sell offs do not have any legs of late. Why even try the OEX puts then? Good question. Perhaps it's just another in the many bad ideas I've had so far this year. We'll see.
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