Wednesday, September 24, 2025
Some follow through selling today which we haven't seen in a while as the Dow fell 171 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trending lower. The Dow led the way down today and that isn't the most bearish scenario. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned lower but it still remains short term overbought. Not sure if this is the beginning of something sustained to the downside or just a pause in the rally. We'll know more by the end of the week. Gold dropped $52 today. The US dollar was higher and so were interest rates. The XAU fell over 9 3/4, while GDX lost 1 7/8. Volume was good to the downside. The short term indicators for GDX have turned lower but it remains short term overbought. However it appears that the 5 wave rally that began in the beginning of August for GDX is valid and completed. We are looking to purchase some GDX October puts. Ideally we'll see a light volume bounce from here that fails. The short term up trend line for GDX comes in at 68 and that would be the first downside target. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that doesn't fit with a down market. Some of the short term indicators here have started to turn down. Still not sure what comes next here for the VIX. Some economic data due out tomorrow and a lot of Fed speak. Inflation data on Friday is the main event. Europe and Asia were mixed again overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.
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