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Friday, September 05, 2025

It was a one day downside reversal as after a brief upside burst at the open, stocks sold off for the rest of the day. The Dow fell 220 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to move higher. The employment data came in weaker than expected. The selling wasn't as bad as it could have been and the NASDAQ barely posted a loss. The S&P is still on the overbought side of the ledger. My open order for the SPY September puts wasn't filled this morning and I'm leaving it out there. If we see some upside in stocks early next week it may get filled. The Bollinger bands on the daily chart for the S&P are getting pretty close. This implies that a big move is coming. Which way is always the question that needs to be answered. Gold was up $32 on the futures to a new all time high. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 6 1/3 and GDX climbed 1 3/4. Volume was good to the upside. GDX has been short term overbought now for over a month. Overextended here any way you look at it. I'm not going to try and pick a top though. We'll let the market for gold speak for itself. Money continues to find a home there. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was a little lower today despite a down market. The short term indicators here are beginning to stall. Yesterday the VIX looked like it implied higher stock prices going forward. It still has that look on the daily candlestick chart. The Bollinger bands here are contracting as well. I'm in the camp for some kind of big move in the stock market and soon. Plenty of charts to go over this weekend ahead of next weeks inflation data. I'm sticking to the game plan of trying to get some SPY puts for now. Asia was higher and Europe lower to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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