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Tuesday, September 02, 2025

Sellers had the upper hand returning from a long weekend as the Dow lost 249 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still in a sidewyas channel but another day like today will send it lower. The NASDAQ led the way south. It could have been worse but the market came back from the lowest levels on the day. There was a huge gap down at the open. We saw price action like this at the beginning of August but the market quickly recovered and went on to new all time highs. Will that be the case this time around? We'll see. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P 500 have made it down to the mid-range level. I canceled my open order for the SPY September puts as it had no chance of being filled after the drop. I still like this idea and will be looking to place another order. Obviously the ideal time to place this trade has passed. Gold jumped $83 on the futures to close in on $3600. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU gained six points and GDX added 1 2/3. Volume was heavy to the upside. I was looking for the gold shares to take some kind of rest but they continue to find buyers. Gold has had a 4 month consolidation and is now breaking out to the upside. There is no telling how high it will go here. It is getting parabolic on the monthly chart and we know that won't end well. But we don't know when. I'm not going to chase GDX here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX climbed up to its 200 day moving average and then fell back today. The short term indicators here are moving up. Not sure what's next for the VIX. It was a rough start to the month for stocks but it could have been worse. I'm not sure exactly what is going on here but we do know that the market knows more than we do. Employment data to deal with on Friday. Might look to own some SPY puts ahead of that. Asia was generally lower and Europe down overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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